Predictions for 2022

Let's start with some simple, obvious predictions:

Apple will announce its series of M2 chips (or at least the first chip of the M2 series) and will focus on products for individuals such as heads-up displays and appliances for the home.

Microsoft will focus on security and collaboration. It has already announced its "Pluton" chip that integrates into CPUs. It already has collaboration in its office and development products (Word, Excel, Visual Studio). I expect that Microsoft will enhance those capabilities. Oh, and deliver a revised version of Windows 11.

Facebook will deal with its current scandals (anti-trust actions, harmful content with no mitigation) and possibly some new ones. I expect to see changes in senior management and organization of company. Mark Zuckerberg will either leave or be forced out.

Amazon... will continue to do what it has been doing. It will continue to offer online sales, cloud services, and a smattering of consumer devices.

Google will continue to develop Android and ChromeOS, and will continue to merge the two. Google's cloud services run a distant third after Amazon and Microsoft; I think we will see development and advertising for Google's offerings.

In other words, things will be fairly boring.

Some less obvious predictions:

No new programming languages. At least, no new popular programming languages will arise in 2022. The current set of programming languages (C#, Java, Python, JavaScript, C++, SQL) is meeting the needs of industry. There will be lots of new languages, of course. People invent programming languages and each week sees an announcement of a new language. But the popular languages will remain popular.

No major changes to hardware. Laptop and desktop computers and smart phones and tablets are supplying the needed computing power. There is no compelling reason to change. (Microsoft and PC vendors may envy Apple's system-on-chip offerings, but won't be in a position to offer comparable hardware for some time. Instead, look to Intel to provide bigger and faster chips (as they have just announced this month).

Work-from-home, or remote work, will continue to be important in 2022. But 2022 will be different, in that companies will commit more firmly to remote work. It will be CFOs that lead this change; they will insist that companies stop paying for office space that remains vacant. CEOs may stall, but the finances are very persuasive. Corporate boards will look at the numbers and side with the CFOs on this issue.

NFTs (non-fungible tokens) will see a slow decline of interest. Current interest is driven by novelty and potential; the future may see useful functions associated with them.

The "Internet of Things" or IOT (sometimes IoT) will see some growth as multiple companies make internet-connected appliances and devices. We already have light bulbs, door cameras, home temperature systems, and tracking tags. Apple's idea of iPhones as connection points will be copied by Google, and Android phones will also serve as connection points. (Although the two systems will be incompatible, much like the early days of telephone service which saw multiple companies with independent networks serving the same town or city.)

All in all, 2022 will be a year of modest changes, small improvements, and few surprises.

Or so I think.

Predictions for tech in 2019

Predictions are fun! They allow us to see into the future -- or at least claim that we can see into the future. They also allow us to step away from the usual topics and talk about almost anything we want. Who could resist making predictions?

So here are my predictions for 2019:

Programming languages: The current "market" for programming languages is fractured. There is no one language that dominates. The ten most popular languages (according to Tiobe) are Java, C, Python, C++, VB.NET, C#, JavaScript, PHP, SQL, and Objective-C. The top ten are not evenly distributed; Java and C are in a "lead group" and the remaining languages are in a second group.

O'Reilly lists Python, Java, Go, C#, Kotlin, and Rust as languages to watch for 2019. Notice that this list is different from Tiobe's "most popular" -- Rust and Kotlin show on that index in positions 34 and 36, respectively. Notably absent from O"Reilly's list are C++ and Perl.

For 2019, I predict that the market will remain fragmented. Java will remain in the lead group unless Oracle, who owns Java, does something that discourages Java development. (And even then, so many systems are currently written in Java that Java will remain in use for years. Java will be the COBOL of the 2020s: used in important business systems but not liked very much by younger developers.) C will remain in the lead group. (The popularity of C is hard to explain. But whatever C has, people like.)

Fragmentation makes life difficult for managers. Which languages should their teams use? A single leader makes the decision easy. The current market, with multiple capable languages allows for debates about development languages. An established project provides the argument of sticking with the current programming language; a new project (with no existing code) makes the decision somewhat harder. (My advice: pick a popular language that gets the job done for you. Don't worry about it being the best language. Good enough is... good enough.)

Operating systems: Unlike the "market" for programming languages, the "market" for operating systems is fairly uniform. I should say "markets": we can consider the desktop/laptop segment, the server segment, and possibly a cloud segment. For the desktop, Windows is dominant, and will remain dominant in 2019. Windows 10 is capable and especially good for large organizations who want centralized administration. MacOS is used in a number of shops, especially smaller organizations and startups, and will continue to have a modest share.

For servers, Linux dominates and will continue to dominate in 2019. Windows runs some servers, and will continue to, especially in organizations who consider themselves "Microsoft shops".

The interesting future for operating systems is the cloud segment. Cloud services run on operating systems, usually Linux or Windows, but this is changing on two fronts. The first is the hypervisor, which sits below the virtual operating system in a cloud environment; the second is containers, which sit above the virtual operating system (and which contain an application).

Hypervisors are well-understood and well established. Containers are new (well, new-ish) and not as well understood, but gaining acceptance. Between the two sits the operating system, which is coming under pressure as hypervisors and containers perform tasks that were traditionally performed by operating systems.

In the long run, hypervisors, containers, and operating systems will achieve a new equilibrium, with operating systems doing less than they have in the past. The question will not be "Which operating system for my cloud application?" but instead "Which combination of hypervisor, operating system, and container for my cloud application?". And even then, there may be large shops that use a mixture of hypervisor, operating system, and container for their applications.

Virtual reality and augmented reality: Both will remain experimental. We have yet to find a "killer app" for augmented reality, something that combines real-world and supplied visuals in a compelling application.

Cloud services: Amazon.com dominates the market, and I see little to change that. Microsoft and Google will maintain (and possibly increase) their market shares. Other players (IBM, Dell, Oracle) will remain small.

The list of services available from cloud providers is impressive and daunting. Amazon is in a difficult position; its services are less consistent than Microsoft's and Google's. Both Microsoft and Google came into the market after Amazon and developed their offerings more slowly. The result has been a smaller market share but a more consistent set of services (and, I dare say, a better experience for the customer). Amazon may change some services to make things more consistent.

Phones: Little will change in 2019. Apple and Android will remain dominant. 5G will get press and slow roll-out by carriers; look for true implementation and wide coverage in later years.

Tablets: 2019 may be the "last year of the tablet" -- at least the non-laptop convertible tablet. Tablet sales have been anemic, except for iPads, and even those are declining. Apple could introduce an innovation to the iPad which increases its appeal, but I don't see that. (I think Apple will focus on phones, watches, earphones, and other consumer devices.)

I see little interest in tablets from other manufacturers, probably due to the lack of demand by customers. As Android is the only other (major) operating system for tablets, innovation for Android tablets will have to come from Google, and I see little interest from Google in tablets. (I think Google is more interested in phones, location-based services, and advertising.)

In sum, I see 2019 as a year of "more of the same", with few or no major innovations. I suspect that the market for tech will, at the end of 2019, look very much like the market for tech at the beginning of 2019.

Predictions for tech in 2018

Predictions are fun! Let's have some for the new year!

Programming Languages

Java, C, and C# will remain the most popular languages, especially in large commercial efforts. Moderately popular languages such as Python and JavaScript will remain moderately popular. (JavaScript is one of the "three legs of web pages", along with HTML and CSS, so it is very popular for web page and front-end work.)

Interest in functional programming languages (Haskell, Erlang) will remain minimal, while I expect interest in Rust (which focuses on safety, speed, and concurrency) to increase.

Cloud and Mobile

The year 2017 was the year that cloud computing become the default for new applications, especially business applications. The platforms and tools available from the big providers (Amazon.com, Microsoft, Google, and IBM) make a convincing case. Building traditional web applications on in-house data centers will still be used for some specialty applications.

The front end for applications remains split between browsers and mobile devices. Mobile devices are the platform of choice for consumer applications, including banking, sales, games, and e-mail. Browsers are the platform of choice for internal commercial applications, which require larger screens.

Browsers

Chrome will remain the dominant browser, possibly gaining market share. Microsoft will continue to support its Edge browser, and it has the resources to keep it going. Other browsers such as Firefox and Opera will be hard-pressed to maintain viability.

PaaS (Platform as a Service)

The middle version of platforms for cloud computing, PaaS sits between IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) and SaaS (Software as a Service). It offers a platform to run applications, handling the underlying operating system, database, and messaging layers and keeping them hidden from the developer.

I expect an increase in interest in these platforms, driven by the increase in cloud-based apps. PaaS removes a lot of administrative work, for development and deployment.

AI and ML (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning)

Most of AI is actually ML, but the differences are technical and obscure. The term "AI" has achieved critical mass, and that's what we'll use, even when we're talking about Machine Learning.

Interest in AI will remain high, and companies with large data sets will take advantage of it. Initial applications will include credit analysis and fraud analysis (such applications are already under development). The platforms offered by Google, Microsoft, and IBM (and others) will make experimentation with AI possible for many, although one needs large data sets in addition to the AI compute platform.

Containers

Interest in containers will remain strong. Containers ease deployment; if you deploy frequently (or even infrequently) you will want to at least evaluate them.

Big Data

The term "Big Data" will all but disappear in 2018. Like its predecessor "real time", it was a vague description of computing that was beyond the reach of typical (at the time) hardware and software. Hardware and software improved to the point that performance was good enough, and the term "real time" is now limited to a few very specialized situations. I expect the same for "big data".

Related terms, like "data science" and "analytics" will remain. Their continued existence will depend on their perceived value to organizations; I think the latter has secured a place, the former is still under scrutiny.

IoT

The "Internet of Things" will see a lot of hype in 2018. I expect a lot of internet-connected devices, from drones to dolls, from cameras to cars, and from bicycles to birdcages (really!).

The technology for connected devices has gotten ahead of our understanding, much like the original microcomputers before the IBM PC.

We don't know how to use connected things -- yet. I expect that we will experiment with a lot of uses before we find the "killer app" of IoT. Once we do, I expect that we will see a standardization of protocols for IoT devices, making the early devices obsolete.

Apple

I expect Apple to have a successful and profitable 2018. They remain, in my opinion, at risk of becoming the "iPhone company", with more than 80% of the income coming from phones. The other risk is from their aversion to cloud computing -- Apple puts compute power in its devices (laptops, tablets, phones, and watches) and does not leverage or offer cloud services.

The latter omission (lack of cloud services) will be a serious problem in the future. The other providers (Microsoft, Google, IBM, etc.) provide cloud services and development platforms. Apple stands alone, keeping developers on the local device and using cloud computing for its internal use.


These are my predictions for 2018. In short, I expect a rather dull year, focused more on exploring our current technology than creating new tech. We've got a lot of relatively new tech toys to play with, and they should keep us occupied for a while.

Of course, I could be wrong!

Predictions for 2017

What will happen in the new year? Let's make some predictions!

Cloud computing and containers remain popular.

Ransomware will become more prevalent, with a few big name companies (and a number of smaller companies) suffering infections. Individuals will be affected as well. Companies may be spurred to improve their security; "traditional" malware was annoying but ransomware stops operations and costs actual money. Earlier virus programs would require effort from the support team to resolve, and that expense could be conveniently ignored by managers. But this new breed of malware requires an actual payment, and that is harder to ignore. I expect a louder cry for secure operating systems and applications, but effective changes will take time (years).

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will be discussed. A few big players will advertise projects. They will have little effect on "the little guy", small companies, and slow-moving organizations.

Apple will continue to lead the design for laptops and phones. Laptop computers from other manufacturers will lose DVD readers and switch to USB-C (following Apple's design for the MacBook). Apple itself will look for ways to distinguish its MacBooks from laptops.

Tablet sales will remain weak. We don't know what to do with tablets, at home or in the office. They fill a niche between phones and laptops, but if you have those two you don't need a tablet. If you have a phone and are considering an additional device, the laptop is the better choice. If you have a laptop and are considering an additional device, the phone is the better choice. Tablets offer no unique abilities.

Laptop sales will remain strong. Desktop sales will decline. There is little need for a tower PC, and the prices for laptops are in line with prices for desktops. Laptops offer portability, which is good for telework or group meetings. Tower PCs offer expansion slots, which are good for... um, very little in today's offices.

Tower PCs won't die. They will remain the PC of choice for games, and for specific applications that need the processing power of GPUs. Some manufacturers may drop the desktop configurations, and the remaining manufacturers will be able to raise prices. I won't guess at who will stay in the desktop market.

Amazon.com will grow cloud services but lose market share to Microsoft and Google, who will grow at faster rates. Several small cloud providers will cease operations. If you're using a small provider of cloud services, be prepared to move.

Programming languages will continue to fracture. (Witness the decline on http://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/.) The long trend has been to move away from a few dominant languages and towards a collection of mildly popular languages. This change makes life uncomfortable for managers, because there is no one "safe" language that is "the best" for corporate development. But fear not, because...

Vendor relationships will continue to define the best programming languages for your projects: Java with Oracle, C# with Microsoft, Swift with Apple. If you are a Microsoft shop, your best language is C#. (You may consider F# for special projects.) If you are developing iOS applications, your best language is Swift. For Android apps, you want Java. Managers need not worry too much about difficult decisions for programming languages.

Those are my ideas for the new year. Let's see what really happens!

Predictions for 2012

Happy new year!

The turning of the year provides a time to pause, look back, and look ahead. Looking ahead can be fun, since we can make predictions.

Here are my predictions for computing in the coming year:

With the rise of mobile apps, we will see changes in project requirements and in the desires of candidates.

The best talent will work on mobile apps. The best talent will -- as always -- work on the "cool new stuff". The "cool new stuff" will be mobile apps. The C#/.NET and Java applications will be considered "that old stuff". Look for the bright, creative programmers and designers to flock to companies building mobile apps. Companies maintaining legacy applications will have to hire the less enthusiastic workers.

Less funding for desktop applications. Desktop applications will be demoted to "legacy" status. Expect a reduced emphasis on their staffing. These projects will be viewed as less important to the organization, and will see less training, less tolerance for "Fast Company"-style project teams, and lower compensation. Desktop projects will be the standard, routine, bureaucratic (and boring) projects of classic legacy shops. The C# programmers will be sitting next to, eating lunch with, and reminiscing with, the COBOL programmers.

More interest in system architects. Mobile applications are a combination of front end apps (the iPhone and iPad apps) and back-end systems that store and supply data. Applications like Facebook and Twitter work only because the front end app can call upon the back end systems to obtain data (updates submitted by other users). Successful applications will need people who can visualize, describe, and lead the team in building mobile applications.

More interest in generalists. Companies will look to bring on people skilled in multiple areas (coding, testing, and user interfaces). They will be less interested in specialists who know a single area -- with a few exceptions of the "hot new technologies".

Continued fracturing of the tech world. Amazon.com, Apple, and Google will continue to build their walled gardens of devices, apps, and media. Music and books available from Amazon.com will not be usable in the Apple world (although available on the iPod and iPad in the Amazon.com Kindle app). Music and books from Apple will not be available on Amazon.com Kindles and Google devices. Consumers will continue to accept this model. (Although like 33 RPM LPs and 45 PRM singles, consumers will eventually want a music and books on multiple devices. But that is a year or two away.)

Cloud computing will be big, popular, and confused. Different cloud suppliers offer different types of cloud services. Amazon.com's EC2 offering is a set of virtual machines that allow one to "build up" from there, installing operating systems and applications. Microsoft's Azure is a set of virtual machines with Windows/.NET and one may build applications starting at a higher level that Amazon's offering. Salesforce.com offers their cloud platform that lets one build applications at an even higher level. Lots of folks will want cloud computing, and vendors will supply it -- in the form that the vendor offers. When people from different "clouds" meet, they will be confused that the "other guy's cloud" is different from theirs.

Virtualization will fade into the background. It will be useful in large shops, and it will not disappear. It is necessary for cloud computing. But it will not be the big star. Instead, it will be a quiet, necessary technology, joining the ranks of power management, DASD management, telecommunications, and network administration. Companies will need smart, capable people to make it work, but they will be reluctant to pay for them.

Telework will exist, quietly. I expect that the phrase "telework" will be reserved for traditional "everyone works in the office" companies that allow some employees to work in remote locations. For them, the default will be "work in the office" and the exception will be "telework". In contrast, small companies (especially start-ups) will leverage faster networks, chat and videoconferencing, mobile devices, and social networks. Their standard mode of operation will be "work from wherever" but they won't think of themselves as offering "telework". From their point of view, it will simply be "how we do business", and they won't need a word to distinguish it. (They may, however, create a word to describe folks who insist on working in company-supplied space every day. Look for new companies to call these people "in-house employees" or "residents".)

Understand the sea change of the iPad. The single-app interface works for people consuming information. The old-fashioned multi-windowed desktop interface works for people composing and creating information. This change leads to a very different approach to the design of applications. This year people will understand the value of the "swipe" interface and the strengths of the "keyboard" interface.

Voice recognition will be the hot new tech. With the success of "Siri" (and Android's voice recognizer "Majel"), expect interest in voice recognition technology and apps designed for voice.

Content delivery becomes important. Content distributors (Amazon.com, Google, and Apple) become more important, as they provide exclusive content within their walled gardens. The old model of a large market in which anyone can write and sell software will change to a market controlled by the delivery channels. The model becomes one similar to the movie industry (a few studios producing and releasing almost all movies) and the record industry (a few record labels producing and releasing almost all music) and the book industry (a few publishing houses... you get the idea).

Content creation becomes more professional. With content delivery controlled by the few major players, the business model becomes less "anyone can put on a show" and more of "who do you know". Consumers and companies will have higher expectations of content and the abilities of those who prepare it.

Amateur producers will still exist, but with less perceived value. Content that is deemed "professional" (that is, for sale on the market) will be developed by professional teams. Other content (such as the day-to-day internal memos and letters) will be composed by amateur content creators: the typical office worker equipped with a word processor, a spreadsheet, and e-mail will be viewed as less important, since they provide no revenue.

Microsoft must provide content provider and enable professional creators. Microsoft's business has been to supply tools to amateur content creators. Their roots of BASIC, DOS, Windows, Office, and Visual Basic let anyone (with or without specific degrees or certifications) create content for the market. With the rise of the "professional content creator", expect Microsoft to supply tools labeled (and priced) for professionals.

Interest in new programming languages. Expect a transition from the object-oriented languages (C++, Java, C#) to a new breed of languages that introduce ideas from functional programming. Languages such as Scala, Lua, Python, and Ruby will gain in popularity. C# will have a long life -- but not the C# we know today. Microsoft has added functional programming capabilities to the .NET platform, and modified the C# language to use them. C# will continue to change as Microsoft adapts to the market.

The new year brings lots of changes and a bit of uncertainty, and that's how it should be.