Predictions for 2022

Let's start with some simple, obvious predictions:

Apple will announce its series of M2 chips (or at least the first chip of the M2 series) and will focus on products for individuals such as heads-up displays and appliances for the home.

Microsoft will focus on security and collaboration. It has already announced its "Pluton" chip that integrates into CPUs. It already has collaboration in its office and development products (Word, Excel, Visual Studio). I expect that Microsoft will enhance those capabilities. Oh, and deliver a revised version of Windows 11.

Facebook will deal with its current scandals (anti-trust actions, harmful content with no mitigation) and possibly some new ones. I expect to see changes in senior management and organization of company. Mark Zuckerberg will either leave or be forced out.

Amazon... will continue to do what it has been doing. It will continue to offer online sales, cloud services, and a smattering of consumer devices.

Google will continue to develop Android and ChromeOS, and will continue to merge the two. Google's cloud services run a distant third after Amazon and Microsoft; I think we will see development and advertising for Google's offerings.

In other words, things will be fairly boring.

Some less obvious predictions:

No new programming languages. At least, no new popular programming languages will arise in 2022. The current set of programming languages (C#, Java, Python, JavaScript, C++, SQL) is meeting the needs of industry. There will be lots of new languages, of course. People invent programming languages and each week sees an announcement of a new language. But the popular languages will remain popular.

No major changes to hardware. Laptop and desktop computers and smart phones and tablets are supplying the needed computing power. There is no compelling reason to change. (Microsoft and PC vendors may envy Apple's system-on-chip offerings, but won't be in a position to offer comparable hardware for some time. Instead, look to Intel to provide bigger and faster chips (as they have just announced this month).

Work-from-home, or remote work, will continue to be important in 2022. But 2022 will be different, in that companies will commit more firmly to remote work. It will be CFOs that lead this change; they will insist that companies stop paying for office space that remains vacant. CEOs may stall, but the finances are very persuasive. Corporate boards will look at the numbers and side with the CFOs on this issue.

NFTs (non-fungible tokens) will see a slow decline of interest. Current interest is driven by novelty and potential; the future may see useful functions associated with them.

The "Internet of Things" or IOT (sometimes IoT) will see some growth as multiple companies make internet-connected appliances and devices. We already have light bulbs, door cameras, home temperature systems, and tracking tags. Apple's idea of iPhones as connection points will be copied by Google, and Android phones will also serve as connection points. (Although the two systems will be incompatible, much like the early days of telephone service which saw multiple companies with independent networks serving the same town or city.)

All in all, 2022 will be a year of modest changes, small improvements, and few surprises.

Or so I think.