Will Microsoft Change Windows to Linux

People, from time to time, ask about Microsoft changing from Windows to Linux. When they do, lots of people respond. The responses fall into two general categories: Microsoft will switch to Linux because it is the superior operating system, and Microsoft will stick with Windows because it is the superior operating system.

The rebuttals are always -- always -- in the technical realm. Linux is better at this, and Windows is better at that.

I have a different response.

Microsoft will switch from Windows to Linux if, and when, it is Microsoft's interest to switch.

In the 1990s and 2000s, Windows was a key part of its strategy. Microsoft sold software (or licenses for software, which amounts to the same thing) and it used Windows as a base for its other products. Office ran on Windows (and versions for Mac OS, which were a special case). SQL Server ran on Windows. Internet Explorer ran on Windows. Outlook ran on Windows, and talked to Exchange, which also ran on Windows. Visual Studio ran on Windows. SourceSafe ran on Windows (and Unix, because it had been developed by an independent company and sold to Microsoft).

During that period, Microsoft would never consider switching from Windows to Linux. Such a move would destroy Microsoft's strategy of "everything on Windows".

Today, Microsoft offers services that extend beyond Windows, and some of them use Linux. Azure provides cloud services. One can provision Linux servers as well as Windows servers (and pay Microsoft for both). Microsoft has less incentive to force customers to use Windows.

In addition, Microsoft is moving its apps into the cloud and onto the web. One can open and edit Word documents and Excel spreadsheets in a browser. (The online versions of Word and Excel are limited compared to the locally-installed versions. I expect the online versions to improve over time.) Microsoft has also created a cloud-based, web version of Visual Studio Code, which lets programmers collaborate across multiple operating systems.

Microsoft has dropped the "everything on Windows" strategy in favor of a "sell services and subscriptions" strategy. It doesn't require Windows to be at the center of the customer experience.

Will Microsoft replace Windows with Linux? The proper way to look at the question is not in the technical realm, but in the financial realm. If Microsoft can make more money with Linux than Windows, it should (and probably will) offer Linux.

Windows provides an income stream, in the form of licenses. Microsoft is moving from a "buy once until you upgrade" approach to an annual subscription. The latter is more predictable, for both Microsoft and customers, and seems to provide higher revenue to Microsoft. But the point is that Windows provides income to Microsoft.

Windows is also an expense for Microsoft. The development, maintenance, and support for Windows requires time and effort in significant quantities.

The question then becomes: which is the higher number? Does revenue cover expenses (and then some)? Or does Windows cost more to maintain than it brings in revenue?

The current capabilities of Microsoft's cloud-based web applications are such that locally-installed applications provide more to the customer. Some day that may change. Until it does, those advantages translate to incentives to support Windows.

Technical arguments can be fun. They can also be heated. But they are not the way to convince Microsoft to switch to Linux. Or to stay with Windows. The decision is a financial one, not a technical one.