Successful programming languages

The IT world has seen a number of programming languages. Some became popular and some did not.

With more than half a century of experience, we can see some patterns in languages that became popular. First, let's review some of the popular programming languages.

FORTRAN and COBOL were successful because they met a business need (or two, perhaps). The primary need was for a programming language that was easier to understand than assembly language. The secondary need was for a programming language that could be used across computers of different manufacturers, allowing companies to move programs from one vendor's hardware to another. Both FORTRAN and COBOL met those needs.

BASIC was modestly successful on minicomputers and wildly successful on personal computers. It was possible to run BASIC on the small PCs (sometimes with as little as 4K of memory!). It was easy to use, and amateur programmers could write and run programs relatively easily. It filled the technical space of timesharing on minicomputers, and the technical space of personal computers.

C became popular in the Unix world because it was included in Unix distributions. If you ran Unix, you most likely programmed in C. One could say that it was pushed upon the world by AT&T, the owners of Unix.

SQL became successful in the 1980s, just as databases became available and popular. Prior to databases, computer systems offered "file managers" and "file access libraries" which allowed basic operations on records but not tables. Each library had its own set of capabilities and its own API. SQL provided a common set of operations and a common API. If allowed businesses to move easily from one database to another,  guaranteed a core set of operations, and permitted a broad set of programmers to work on multiple systems.

C++ became popular because it solved a problem with C programs, namely the organization of large programs. C++ offered object-oriented concepts of classes, inheritance, encapsulation, and polymorphism, each of which helps organize code.

Visual Basic became popular because it provided an easy way to write programs for Windows. Microsoft's earlier Visual C++ required knowledge of the Windows API and lots of discipline. Visual Basic required neither, hiding the Windows API from the programmer and providing safety in the programming language.

Objective-C became popular because Apple used it for programming applications for Macintosh computers. (Later, when Apple switched to the Swift programming language, interest in Objective-C plummeted.)

Java became popular because it promised that people could write programs once and then run them anywhere. It did a good job of delivering on that promise, too.

C# is Microsoft's version of Java (its second version, after Visual J++) and is popular only in that Microsoft pushes it. If Microsoft were to disappear overnight, interest in C# would drop dramatically.

Swift is Apple's language for development of applications for the iPhone, iPad, and other Apple products. It is successful because Apple pushes it upon the world.

JavaScript became popular because it was ubiquitous. Much like BASIC on all PCs, JavaScript was in all browsers, and the combination of HTML, the DOM, and JavaScript allowed for web applications with powerful processing in the browser.

Python became popular because it was a better Perl. Python had a simpler syntax and also had object-oriented programming built in.

Notice that, with the exception of Rust replacing C or C++, these new languages become popular in new spaces. They don't replace an existing popular language. BASIC didn't replace COBOL or FORTRAN, it became popular in the new spaces of timesharing and personal computers. C# didn't replace Java; it joined Visual Basic in the Microsoft space and slowly gained in popularity as Microsoft supported it more than Visual Basic.

So we can see that there are a few reasons that languages become popular:

• A vendor pushes it
• It solves a commonly-recognized business problem
• It fills a technical space

If we accept these as the reasons that languages become popular, we can make some predictions about new languages that become popular. We can say that, if a major vendor pushed a language for its projects (a vendor such as Amazon, for example) then that language would become popular.

Or, we could say that a new technical space would allow a new language to become popular.

Or, if there is a commonly recognized business problem with our current set of programming languages, a new language that solves that problem would become popular.

So what do we see?

If we accept that C and C++ have problems (memory management, buffer overflows) and we accept that those problems are commonly recognized, then we can see the replacement of C and C++ with a different language, one that addresses those problems. The prime contender for that is Rust. We may see a gradual shift from C and C++ programming to Rust, as more and more people develop confidence in Rust and develop a fear of memory management and buffer overrun issues.

One technical space that could provide an opportunity for a new programming language is the Internet of Things (IoT). Appliances and devices must communicate with each other and with servers. I suspect that the IoT space is in need more of protocols than of programming languages, but perhaps there is room for a programming language that works with new protocols to establish trusted connections and, more importantly, trusted updates.

A third area is a teaching language. BASIC was designed, initially, for people not familiar with programming. Pascal was designed to teach structured programming. Do we have a language designed to teach object-oriented programming? To teach functional programming? Do we even have a language to teach basic programming? BASIC and Pascal have long been discarded by the community, and introductory courses now often use Java, JavaScript, or Python which are all rather complex languages. A new, simple language could gain popularity.

As we develop new devices for virtual reality, augmented reality, and other aides, we may need new programming languages.

Those are the areas that I think will see new programming languages.