Predictions for tech in 2018

Predictions are fun! Let's have some for the new year!

Programming Languages

Java, C, and C# will remain the most popular languages, especially in large commercial efforts. Moderately popular languages such as Python and JavaScript will remain moderately popular. (JavaScript is one of the "three legs of web pages", along with HTML and CSS, so it is very popular for web page and front-end work.)

Interest in functional programming languages (Haskell, Erlang) will remain minimal, while I expect interest in Rust (which focuses on safety, speed, and concurrency) to increase.

Cloud and Mobile

The year 2017 was the year that cloud computing become the default for new applications, especially business applications. The platforms and tools available from the big providers (Amazon.com, Microsoft, Google, and IBM) make a convincing case. Building traditional web applications on in-house data centers will still be used for some specialty applications.

The front end for applications remains split between browsers and mobile devices. Mobile devices are the platform of choice for consumer applications, including banking, sales, games, and e-mail. Browsers are the platform of choice for internal commercial applications, which require larger screens.

Browsers

Chrome will remain the dominant browser, possibly gaining market share. Microsoft will continue to support its Edge browser, and it has the resources to keep it going. Other browsers such as Firefox and Opera will be hard-pressed to maintain viability.

PaaS (Platform as a Service)

The middle version of platforms for cloud computing, PaaS sits between IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) and SaaS (Software as a Service). It offers a platform to run applications, handling the underlying operating system, database, and messaging layers and keeping them hidden from the developer.

I expect an increase in interest in these platforms, driven by the increase in cloud-based apps. PaaS removes a lot of administrative work, for development and deployment.

AI and ML (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning)

Most of AI is actually ML, but the differences are technical and obscure. The term "AI" has achieved critical mass, and that's what we'll use, even when we're talking about Machine Learning.

Interest in AI will remain high, and companies with large data sets will take advantage of it. Initial applications will include credit analysis and fraud analysis (such applications are already under development). The platforms offered by Google, Microsoft, and IBM (and others) will make experimentation with AI possible for many, although one needs large data sets in addition to the AI compute platform.

Containers

Interest in containers will remain strong. Containers ease deployment; if you deploy frequently (or even infrequently) you will want to at least evaluate them.

Big Data

The term "Big Data" will all but disappear in 2018. Like its predecessor "real time", it was a vague description of computing that was beyond the reach of typical (at the time) hardware and software. Hardware and software improved to the point that performance was good enough, and the term "real time" is now limited to a few very specialized situations. I expect the same for "big data".

Related terms, like "data science" and "analytics" will remain. Their continued existence will depend on their perceived value to organizations; I think the latter has secured a place, the former is still under scrutiny.

IoT

The "Internet of Things" will see a lot of hype in 2018. I expect a lot of internet-connected devices, from drones to dolls, from cameras to cars, and from bicycles to birdcages (really!).

The technology for connected devices has gotten ahead of our understanding, much like the original microcomputers before the IBM PC.

We don't know how to use connected things -- yet. I expect that we will experiment with a lot of uses before we find the "killer app" of IoT. Once we do, I expect that we will see a standardization of protocols for IoT devices, making the early devices obsolete.

Apple

I expect Apple to have a successful and profitable 2018. They remain, in my opinion, at risk of becoming the "iPhone company", with more than 80% of the income coming from phones. The other risk is from their aversion to cloud computing -- Apple puts compute power in its devices (laptops, tablets, phones, and watches) and does not leverage or offer cloud services.

The latter omission (lack of cloud services) will be a serious problem in the future. The other providers (Microsoft, Google, IBM, etc.) provide cloud services and development platforms. Apple stands alone, keeping developers on the local device and using cloud computing for its internal use.


These are my predictions for 2018. In short, I expect a rather dull year, focused more on exploring our current technology than creating new tech. We've got a lot of relatively new tech toys to play with, and they should keep us occupied for a while.

Of course, I could be wrong!