Some years ago (never mind exactly) a mentor told me that the difference between a scientist and a businessman was that the scientist wanted to do a thousand things once and a businessman wanted to do one thing a thousand times. That logic still applies today, but AI may present a problem.
Before I talk about AI, let's think about businesses.
Most businesses do like to perform a single thing (such as selling a hamburger) many times. That's a bit of an exaggeration, as hamburger shops like to sell hamburgers with cheese (or without), with fries (or with onion rings), with soda, and sometimes chicken sandwiches instead of hamburgers. But I think you get the basic idea: businesses like to sell a limited set of products or services in a limited set of configurations and make a profit on each transaction.
That idea extends beyond hamburger shops. Auto dealers sell cars, publishers sell books or newspapers, movie studios sell movies, ... the list goes on.
All of these businesses like consistency and stability. While the news changes from day to day and movies have different plots and special effects, to basic idea of selling hamburgers remains the same from day to day, and the basic idea of selling movie tickets remains the same.
Technology has always been a motivator of change. The IBM PC changed the use of computers in businesses. Prior to the IBM PC, most businesses used computers either as large centralized processors of mostly accounting data, with a few exception cases for dedicated word processors or experiments with a TRS-80 or Apple II computer. After the IBM PC, desktop computers were adopted throughout the business world.
But the rate of technological was manageable. IBM (and later Microsoft) limited the changes to hardware and software, and kept old things working with new things. When IBM introduced the PC AT, it required a new version of PC DOS yet it ran almost all programs from the original IBM PC. New versions of Microsoft Windows run almost all programs from the previous versions. The first versions of Windows ran 16-bit DOS programs, too.
Occasionally, a company introduced a product or service that was radically new. Apple brought out the Macintosh computer (or the LISA, an earlier product with similar features) that did not run software from the Apple II. Microsoft released Windows NT which had a completely different architecture and notably did not run many older programs.
These major shifts occurred infrequently, and we always had the opportunity to stay with the older systems for some time. That transition period allowed for gradual upgrades to systems. Most importantly, it allowed businesses to plan upgrades and to operate in a period of known technology. That period provided stability.
Businesses like stability because they can predict the short-term future, and make plans for investments, expansions, new products, and advertising. They can also adjust their supply chains and automate internal processes.
So how does AI affect stability of technology?
In short, AI causes changes in almost every aspect of business, and AI itself is changing rapidly.
When PCs became available, they first replaced typewriters and dedicated word processing systems. The spreadsheet made it easy to analyze data. Later uses included databases and e-mail. Their uses were limited and specific. Their adoption was measured and gradual.
AI, in contrast, can be used in almost any part of the business, from drafting e-mails to analyzing current business conditions to suggesting changes for supply chain management. That means that many areas of the company can change to use AI. That doesn't provide a measured and gradual change.
AI is inconsistent. A request today gets a certain response, a request tomorrow gets a different response (sometimes slightly different, sometimes significantly different). That doesn't provide stability.
The AI engines change frequently. The original IBM PC was first delivered in 1982. The PC XT (almost identical except it included a hard disk) in 1982. The PC AT (with the 80286 processor and a larger hard disk) in 1984. Compaq delivered the 80386-based Desktop Pro in 1987. All of those did basically the same thing.
Today the AI providers (OpenIA, Microsoft, Google, xAI) update their offerings frequently. Those updates are not trivial, and the changes are significant. In some ways, it is like the PC market before IBM announced its PC, with multiple vendors and multiple standards and limited compatibility and consistency.
The frequent changes to AI engines is at odds with the desire of companies for a stable, consistent set of technology on which they can run their business. I don't see it slowing, which means that companies will have to deal with changes (and problems) in their AI purchases. (I also don't see a company that can dominate the market, as IBM dominated the PC market in 1981.)
The changes caused by AI and the ongoing changes in AI products will strain businesses. They will have to adapt to an environment of constant change.
Most won't like it.
Some won't survive it.
