The Bully in the Sandbox

Can competitive behavior be too effective?

Microsoft, over the years, competed aggressively in the Windows market. Microsoft products became dominant in Windows: Word, Excel, Access, PowerPoint, Project, Visual Studio, Internet Explorer...

Microsoft built a reputation as the bully of the Windows sandbox. They made it clear that competitors could exist in the Windows market only at Microsoft's sufferance. When a competitor built a product that made too much profit, or introduced a technology that threatened Microsoft's dominance, Microsoft built its own version of the product (or technology) and out-competed the challenger.

In the short term, this strategy gave Microsoft dominance (and profits) in the Windows market. In the long term, I suspect that the unfriendly Windows market spurred the development of other technologies and spaces. I imagine that some people created products for Apple computers, to avoid the Windows market. Others built web applications. These platforms were less risky than competing in the Windows space.

Microsoft has had little success with its phones and tablets. Oh, the Surface Pro tablets sell well enough, but mostly because they are small, portable Windows PCs running full desktop applications. Windows-based phones have not sold well. The market for Windows mobile apps (especially when compared to Apple's and Google's) is anemic.

I cannot help but think that Microsoft's previous behavior with Windows has made people reluctant to enter the Windows mobile market. Analysts claim that Microsoft was "too late" to enter the mobile market, and they may be right. Yet some part of the failure, I believe, is due to the threat of Microsoft resuming its former practices.

Which leaves Microsoft in a difficult position. It wants people to accept its mobile devices. For that, it needs apps, and it needs apps from other people and companies. Microsoft needs a thriving market to compete with Apple and Google. How to build interest in the market for Windows mobile?

The one strategy that Microsoft should avoid is filling their app store with Microsoft-built apps. A Microsoft-run store with only (or mostly) Microsoft-built apps will reinforce the notion that Microsoft is still a bully. People will avoid the Windows platform, thinking that they have no chance to exist for any length of time.

So perhaps there can be such a thing as "too competitive".

Predictions for 2016

It's the beginning of a new year, which means... predictions! Whee!

Let's start with some obvious predictions:

Mobile will be big in 2016.

Cloud will be big on 2016.

NoSQL and distributed databases will be big in 2016.

Predictions like these are easy.

Now for something a little less obvious: legacy applications.

With the continued interest in mobile, cloud, NoSQL, and distributed databases, these areas will see strong demand for architects, developers, designers, and testers. That demand will pull people away from legacy applications -- those applications built for classic, non-cloud web architectures as well as the remaining desktop applications and mainframe batch systems.

Which is unfortunate for the managers of those legacy applications, because I believe that 2016 is going to be the year that companies decide that they want to migrate those legacy applications to the cloud/mobile platform.

When the web appeared, lots of managers held back, waiting to see if the platform would prove itself. It did, and companies migrated most of their applications from desktop to web (either external or internal). Even Microsoft, stalwart of desktop applications, created a web-based version of Outlook.

Likewise, when mobile and cloud appeared, many managers held back and waited for the new technologies to prove themselves. With almost ten years of mobile and cloud, and many companies already using those technologies, its time for the holdouts to take action.

Look for renewed interest in converting existing desktop and classic web applications. The conversions have challenges. In one sense, the job is easier than the early conversions, because we now have experience with mobile/cloud systems and we understand the architecture. In other ways, this may be harder, as the easy conversions (the "low-hanging fruit") have already been done, which means that the remaining conversions are harder.

The architecture of mobile/cloud systems (with or without distributed databases) is different from classic web applications. (And very different from desktop applications.)

I think that 2016 will be the year of rude awakening, as companies look at the effort to convert their legacy systems to newer technologies.

But the rude awakening is delivered in two phases. The first is the cost and time to convert legacy applications. The second is the cost of maintaining legacy applications in their current form.

Why the cost of maintaining legacy applications, without changing them to newer technologies? Because of the demand for mobile/cloud is high. New entrants to the field will know the new technologies, and select jobs that let them use that knowledge. That means that the folks with knowledge of the older technologies will be, um, older.

The folks with knowledge about older languages (C++, Visual Basic) and older APIs (Flash) will be the senior developers. And senior developers are more expensive than junior developers.

So the owners of legacy applications have a rather unpleasant choice: migrate to mobile/cloud, which is expensive, or stay on the legacy platform, with will also be expensive.

With no clear IT leader, expect lots of changes

The introduction of the IBM PC was market-wrenching. Overnight, the small, rough-and-tumble market of microcomputers with diverse designs from various small vendors became large and centered around the PC standard.

From 1981 to 1987, IBM was the technology leader. IBM lead in sales and also defined the computing platform.

IBM's leadership fell to Compaq in 1987, when IBM introduced the PS/2 line with its new (incompatible) hardware. Compaq delivered old-style PCs with a faster buss (the EISA buss) and notably the Intel 80386 processor. (IBM stayed with the older 80286 and 8086 processors, eventually consenting to provide 80386-based PS/2 units.) Compaq even worked with Microsoft to deliver newer versions of MS-DOS that recognized larger memory capacity and optical disc readers.

But Compaq did not remain the leader. It's leadership declined gradually, to the clone makers and especially Dell, HP, and Gateway.

The mantle of leadership moved from a PC manufacturer to the Microsoft-Intel duopoly. The popularity of Windows, along with marketing skill and software development prowess led to a stable configuration for Microsoft and Intel. Together, they out-competed IBM's OS/2, Motorola's 68000 processor, DEC's Alpha processor, and Apple's Macintosh line.

That configuration held for two decades, roughly from 1990 to 2010, when Apple introduced the iPhone. The genius move was not the iPhone hardware, but the App Store and iTunes, which let one easily find and install apps on your phone (and pay for them).

Now Microsoft and Apple have the same problem: after years of competing in a well-defined market (the corporate PC market) they struggle to move into the world of mobile computing. Microsoft's attempts at mobile devices (Zune, Kin, Surface RT) have flopped. Intel is desperately attempting to design and build processors that are suitable for low-power devices.

I don't expect either Microsoft or Intel to disappear. (At least not for several years, possibly decades.) The PC market is strong, and Intel can sell a lot of its traditional (heat radiator that happen to compute data) processors. Microsoft is a competent player in the cloud arena with its Azure services.

But I will make an observation: for the first time in the PC era, we find that there is no clear leader for technology. The last time we were leaderless was prior to the IBM PC, in the "microcomputer era" of Radio Shack TRS-80 and Apple II computers. Back then, the market was fractured and tribal. Hardware ruled, and your choice of hardware defined your tribe. Apple owners were in the Apple tribe, using Apple-specific software and exchanging data on Apple-specific floppy disks. Radio Shack owners were in the Radio Shack tribe, using software specific to the TRS-80 computers and exchanging data on TRS-80 diskettes. Exchanging data between tribes was one of the advanced arts, and changing tribes was extremely difficult.

There were some efforts to unify computing: CP/M was the most significant. Built by Digital Research (a software company with no interest in hardware), CP/M ran on many different configurations. Yet even that effort could not span the differences in processors, memory layout, and video configurations.

Today we see tribes forming around multiple architectures. For cloud computing, we have Amazon.com's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, Google's App Engine. With virtualization we see VMware, Oracle's VirtualBox, the aforementioned cloud providers, and newcomer Docker as a rough analog of CP/M. Mobile computing sees Apple's iOS, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows RT as a (very) distant third.

With no clear leader and no clear standard, I expect each vendor to enhance their offerings and also attempt to lock in customers with proprietary features. In the mobile space, Apple's Swift and Microsoft's C# are both proprietary languages. Google's choice of Java puts them (possibly) at odds with Oracle -- although Oracle seems to be focussed on databases, servers, and cloud offerings, so there is no direct conflict. Things are a bit more collegial in the cloud space, with vendors supporting OpenStack and Docker. But I still expect proprietary enhancements, perhaps in the form of add-ons.

All of this means that the technology world is headed for change. Not just change from desktop PC to mobile/cloud, but changes in mobile/cloud. The competition from vendors will lead to enhancements and changes, possibly significant changes, in cloud computing and mobile platforms. The mobile/cloud platform will be a moving target, with revisions as each vendor attempts to out-do the others.

Those changes mean risk. As platforms change, applications and systems may break or fail in unexpected ways. New features may offer better ways of addressing problems and the temptation to use those new features will be great. Yet re-designing a system to take advantage of new infrastructure features may mean that other work -- such as new business features -- waits for resources.

One cannot ignore mobile/cloud computing. (Well, I suppose one can, but that is probably foolish.) But one cannot, with today's market, depend on a stable platform with slow, predictable changes like we had with Microsoft Windows.

With such an environment, what should one do?

My recommendations:

Build systems of small components  This is the Unix mindset, with small tools to perform specific tasks. Avoid large, monolithic systems.

Use standard interfaces  Use web services (either SOAP or REST) to connect components into larger systems. Use JSON and Unicode to exchange data, not proprietary formats.

Hedge your bets  Gain experience in at least two cloud platforms and two mobile platforms. Resist the temptation of "corporate standards". Standards are good with a predictable technology base. The current base is not predictable, and placing your eggs in one vendor's basket is risky.

Change your position  After a period of use, examine your systems, your tools, and your talent. Change vendors -- not for everything, but for small components. (You did build your system from small, connected components, right?) Migrate some components to another vendor; learn the process and the difficulties. You'll want to know them when you are forced to move to a different vendor.

Many folks involved in IT have been living in the "golden age" of a stable PC platform. They may have weathered the change from desktop to web -- which saw a brief period of uncertainty. More than likely, they think that the stable world is the norm. All that is fine -- except we're not in the normal world with mobile/cloud. Be prepared for change.

The Mobile Evolution is different from the PC Revolution

When PCs entered the scene, it was a revolution. The entry of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets) is less revolution and more evolution.

What is the difference? Exclusive applications.

When PCs entered the market, they shared some applications with minicomputers and mainframes (assemblers, compilers, and text editors, mostly) but a large percentage of applications were unique to PCs. Word processors, spreadsheets, and games were the popular applications, and none of them were from mainframes.

Mobile applications, for the most part, are extensions of existing PC and web applications. Twitter, Facebook, even Google Maps all live on the web and in the mobile world.

There are some apps that are (or were) mobile-only. "Angry Birds" was first released for the iPhone and later moved to other platforms. FourSquare is a mobile-only app, given its "check in" function.

But the number of mobile-only apps is small, compared to the total. This is quite different from the PC revolution, which saw thousands of PC-specific applications and a small number of mainframe "crossover" applications.

The PC world was filled with new applications, and new types of applications. That's why it was a revolution. The mobile world -- so far -- is filled with extensions to web applications. That's why the mobile world is an evolution.

Microsoft's big chance in the mobile world

Apple (via iOS) and Google (via Android) have taken a lead in mobile platforms. Microsoft's offerings (Windows Phone and Windows RT) have received a cool reception. Yet I see hope for Microsoft.

iPhones, iPads, and Android devices have become popular with consumers (average folks like you and me) and have limited acceptance in the corporate world. I think Microsoft has an opportunity in the corporate market.

I see three reasons:

IT shops tend to be conservative Many IT shops have strong preferences for Microsoft equipment. It works, and changing to another vendor always entails risk.

The role of mobile devices in the corporation is still undefined We know how to use phones and tablets as individuals (play games, read books, and chat on Facebook) but we don't (yet) see how mobile devices help business. Yes, there are a few specialized applications, such as documentation for aircraft pilots or apps for insurance adjusters. The corporate world is an open field.

iOS and Android platforms change frequently The iPhone has seen five generations, and Android has seen almost as many significant versions in its (relatively) short life. Later versions have forced changes to the design of apps, from internals to the UI. Such changes reduce the life of apps and add to the cost, as one revises an app for the new operating system.

With this environment, Microsoft has an opening. Microsoft can offer Windows RT and provide longer support for each version. And I am specifically looking at Windows RT, the variant that does not run Windows classic applications.

Longer support for versions of Windows RT is necessary, but not sufficient. In addition to a stable platform, Microsoft must offer tools for developers. Not just a version of Visual Studio that builds code for Windows RT, but libraries to connect Windows RT apps to Azure and other (non-Microsoft!) cloud services. Not just support forums, but code to handle authentication and payments. Not just UI designers but modules to connect legacy corporate data to Azure (and thereby to mobile devices).

Apple and Android have shown that mobile devices are technically feasible and that there is a demand for them. Now Microsoft has the opportunity to show that they can contribute to business.

Mobile/cloud apps will be different than PC apps

As a participant in the PC revolution, I was comfortable with the bright future of personal computers. I *knew* -- that is, I strongly believed -- that PCs were superior to mainframes.

It turned out that PCs were *different* from mainframes, but not necessarily superior.

Mainframe programs were, primarily, accounting systems. Oh, there were programs to compute ballistics tables, and programs for engineering and astronomy, and system utilities, but the big use of mainframe computers was accounting (general ledger, inventory, billing, payment processing, payables, receivables, and market forecasts). These uses were shaped by the entities that could afford mainframe computers (large corporations and governments) and the data that was most important to those organizations.

But the data was also shaped by technology. Computers read input on punch cards and stored data on magnetic tape. The batch processing systems were useful for certain types of processing and made efficient use of transactions and master files. Even when terminals were invented, the processing remained in batch mode.

Personal computers were more interactive than mainframes. They started with terminals and interactive applications. From the beginning, personal computers were used for tasks very different than the tasks of mainframe computers. The biggest applications for PCs were word processors and spreadsheets. (They still are today.)

Some "traditional" computer applications were ported to personal computers. There were (and still are) systems for accounting and database management. There were utility programs and programming languages: BASIC, FORTRAN, COBOL, and later C and Pascal. But the biggest applications were the interactive ones, the ones that broke from the batch processing mold of mainframe computing.

(I am simplifying greatly here. There were interactive programs for mainframes. The BASIC language was designed as an interactive environment for programming, on mainframe computers.)

I cannot help but think that the typical mainframe programmer, looking at the new personal computers that appeared in the late 1970s, could only puzzle at what possible advantage they could offer. Personal computers were smaller, slower, and less capable than mainframes in every degree. Processors were slower and less capable. Memory was smaller. Storage was laughably primitive. PC software was also primitive, with nothing approaching the sophistication of mainframe operating systems, database management systems, or utilities.

The only ways in which personal computers were superior to mainframes were the BASIC language (Microsoft BASIC was more powerful than mainframe BASIC), word processors, and spreadsheets. Notice that these are all interactive programs. The cost and size of a personal computer made it possible for a person to own one, but the interactive nature of applications made it sensible for a person to own one.

That single attribute of interactive applications made the PC revolution possible. The success of modern-day PCs and the Microsoft empire was built on interactive applications.

I suspect that the success of cell phones and tablets will be built on a single attribute. But what that attribute is, I do not know. It may be portability. It may be location-aware capabilities. It may be a different level of interactivity.

I *know* -- that is, I feel very strongly -- that mobile/cloud is going to have a brilliant future.

I also feel that the key applications for mobile/cloud will be different from traditional PC applications, just as PC applications are different from mainframe applications. Any attempt to port PC applications to mobile/cloud will be doomed to failure, just as mainframe applications failed to port to PCs.

Mainframe applications live on, in their batch mode glory, to this day. Large companies and governments need accounting systems, and will continue to need them. PC applications will live through the mobile/cloud revolution, although some may fade; PowerPoint-style presentations may be better served on synchronized mobile devices than with a single PC and a projector.

Expect mobile/cloud apps to surprise us. They will not be word processors and spreadsheets. (Nor will they be accounting systems.) They will be more like Twitter and Facebook, with status updates and connections to our network of people.

The evolution of the UI

Since the beginning of the personal computing era, we have seen different types of user interfaces. These interfaces were defined by technology. The mobile/cloud age brings us another type of user interface.

The user interfaces were:

• Text-mode programs
• Character-based graphic programs
• True GUI programs
• Web programs

Text-mode programs were the earliest of programs, run on the earliest of hardware. Sometimes run on printing terminals (Teletypes or DECwriters), they had to present output in linear form -- the hardware operated linearly, one character after another. When we weren't investigating problems with hardware, or struggling to software, we dreamed about better displays. (We had seen them in the movies, after all.)

Character-based graphic programs used the capabilities of the "more advanced" hardware such as smart terminals and even the IBM PC. We could draw screens with entry fields -- still in character mode, mind you -- and use different colors to highlight things. The best-known programs from this era would be Wordstar, WordPerfect, Visicalc, and Lotus 1-2-3.

True GUI programs came about with IBM's OS/2, Atari's GEM, and Microsoft's Windows. These were the programs that we wanted! Individual windows that could be moved and resized, fine control of the graphics, and lots of colors! Of course, such programs were only possible with the hardware and software to support them. The GUI programs needed hefty processors and powerful languages for event-driven programming.

The web started in life as a humble method of viewing (and linking) documents. It grew quickly, and web programming surpassed the simple task of documents. It went on to give us applications such as brochures, shopping sites, and eventually e-mail and word processing.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the web. We kept looking back at GUI programs. We wanted web programs to behave like desktop PC programs.

Looking back was unusual. In the transition from text-mode programs to character-based graphics, we looked forward. A few programs, usually compilers and other low-output programs, stayed in text-mode, but everything else moved to character-based graphics.

In the transition from character-based graphics to GUI, we also looked forward. We knew that the GUI was a better form of the interface. No one (well, with the exception of perhaps a few ornery folks) wanted to stay with the character-based UI.

But with the transition from desktop applications and their GUI to the web and its user interface, there was quite a lot of looking back. People invested time and money in building web applications that looked and acted like GUI programs. Microsoft went to great lengths to enable developers to build apps that ran on the web just as they had run on the desktop.

The web UI never came into its own. And it never will.

The mobile/cloud era has arrived. Smartphones, tablets, cloud processing are all available to us. Lots of folks are looking at this new creature. And it seems that lots of people are asking themselves: "How can we build mobile/cloud apps that look and behave like GUI apps?"

I believe that this is the wrong question.

The GUI was a bigger, better incarnation of the character-based UI. Anything the former could do, the latter could do. And prettier. It was a nice, simple progression.

Improvements rarely follow nice simple progressions. Changes in technology are chaotic, with people thinking all sorts of new ideas in all sorts of places. The web is not a bigger, better PC and its user interface was not a bigger, better desktop GUI. Mobile/cloud computing is not a bigger, better web, and its interface is not a bigger, better web interface. The interface for mobile/cloud shares many aspects with the web UI, and some aspects with the desktop GUI, but they have their unique advantages.

To be successful,  identify the differences and leverage them in your organization.

Microsoft Visual Studio Express abandons the desktop

Visual Studio 2011 Express Edition (the free version) does not support desktop applications.

By abandoning the desktop for entry-level users, Microsoft is sending a clear message: the Windows desktop is now a mature market. By "mature", Microsoft is limiting development of desktop applications to professionals -- people who are willing to pay for the tools. The hobbyists are "guided" into the web and Metro environments.

As I see it, Microsoft recognizes different futures for desktop and web/Metro applications. Web apps and Metro apps have a vibrant future with lots of growth and creativity. Desktop apps... don't. Desktop apps are maintained, but not enhanced.

This is not to say that desktop apps will go away. There are too many businesses with too many critical applications that run on the desktop.

But it does confirm a shift in the landscape. New apps will be mobile (iPhone/Android/Metro) apps. Or web apps, for those organizations that do not want to move to mobile.

Just as mainframe applications are still with us (billing systems, payroll, general ledger...) Windows desktop applications will remain with us. But the environment is now sterile. It bears no fruit.

Microsoft's choice with its latest offering of Visual Studio is the right one. Hobbyists and beginners must work in fertile environments.

Predictions for 2012

Happy new year!

The turning of the year provides a time to pause, look back, and look ahead. Looking ahead can be fun, since we can make predictions.

Here are my predictions for computing in the coming year:

With the rise of mobile apps, we will see changes in project requirements and in the desires of candidates.

The best talent will work on mobile apps. The best talent will -- as always -- work on the "cool new stuff". The "cool new stuff" will be mobile apps. The C#/.NET and Java applications will be considered "that old stuff". Look for the bright, creative programmers and designers to flock to companies building mobile apps. Companies maintaining legacy applications will have to hire the less enthusiastic workers.

Less funding for desktop applications. Desktop applications will be demoted to "legacy" status. Expect a reduced emphasis on their staffing. These projects will be viewed as less important to the organization, and will see less training, less tolerance for "Fast Company"-style project teams, and lower compensation. Desktop projects will be the standard, routine, bureaucratic (and boring) projects of classic legacy shops. The C# programmers will be sitting next to, eating lunch with, and reminiscing with, the COBOL programmers.

More interest in system architects. Mobile applications are a combination of front end apps (the iPhone and iPad apps) and back-end systems that store and supply data. Applications like Facebook and Twitter work only because the front end app can call upon the back end systems to obtain data (updates submitted by other users). Successful applications will need people who can visualize, describe, and lead the team in building mobile applications.

More interest in generalists. Companies will look to bring on people skilled in multiple areas (coding, testing, and user interfaces). They will be less interested in specialists who know a single area -- with a few exceptions of the "hot new technologies".

Continued fracturing of the tech world. Amazon.com, Apple, and Google will continue to build their walled gardens of devices, apps, and media. Music and books available from Amazon.com will not be usable in the Apple world (although available on the iPod and iPad in the Amazon.com Kindle app). Music and books from Apple will not be available on Amazon.com Kindles and Google devices. Consumers will continue to accept this model. (Although like 33 RPM LPs and 45 PRM singles, consumers will eventually want a music and books on multiple devices. But that is a year or two away.)

Cloud computing will be big, popular, and confused. Different cloud suppliers offer different types of cloud services. Amazon.com's EC2 offering is a set of virtual machines that allow one to "build up" from there, installing operating systems and applications. Microsoft's Azure is a set of virtual machines with Windows/.NET and one may build applications starting at a higher level that Amazon's offering. Salesforce.com offers their cloud platform that lets one build applications at an even higher level. Lots of folks will want cloud computing, and vendors will supply it -- in the form that the vendor offers. When people from different "clouds" meet, they will be confused that the "other guy's cloud" is different from theirs.

Virtualization will fade into the background. It will be useful in large shops, and it will not disappear. It is necessary for cloud computing. But it will not be the big star. Instead, it will be a quiet, necessary technology, joining the ranks of power management, DASD management, telecommunications, and network administration. Companies will need smart, capable people to make it work, but they will be reluctant to pay for them.

Telework will exist, quietly. I expect that the phrase "telework" will be reserved for traditional "everyone works in the office" companies that allow some employees to work in remote locations. For them, the default will be "work in the office" and the exception will be "telework". In contrast, small companies (especially start-ups) will leverage faster networks, chat and videoconferencing, mobile devices, and social networks. Their standard mode of operation will be "work from wherever" but they won't think of themselves as offering "telework". From their point of view, it will simply be "how we do business", and they won't need a word to distinguish it. (They may, however, create a word to describe folks who insist on working in company-supplied space every day. Look for new companies to call these people "in-house employees" or "residents".)

Understand the sea change of the iPad. The single-app interface works for people consuming information. The old-fashioned multi-windowed desktop interface works for people composing and creating information. This change leads to a very different approach to the design of applications. This year people will understand the value of the "swipe" interface and the strengths of the "keyboard" interface.

Voice recognition will be the hot new tech. With the success of "Siri" (and Android's voice recognizer "Majel"), expect interest in voice recognition technology and apps designed for voice.

Content delivery becomes important. Content distributors (Amazon.com, Google, and Apple) become more important, as they provide exclusive content within their walled gardens. The old model of a large market in which anyone can write and sell software will change to a market controlled by the delivery channels. The model becomes one similar to the movie industry (a few studios producing and releasing almost all movies) and the record industry (a few record labels producing and releasing almost all music) and the book industry (a few publishing houses... you get the idea).

Content creation becomes more professional. With content delivery controlled by the few major players, the business model becomes less "anyone can put on a show" and more of "who do you know". Consumers and companies will have higher expectations of content and the abilities of those who prepare it.

Amateur producers will still exist, but with less perceived value. Content that is deemed "professional" (that is, for sale on the market) will be developed by professional teams. Other content (such as the day-to-day internal memos and letters) will be composed by amateur content creators: the typical office worker equipped with a word processor, a spreadsheet, and e-mail will be viewed as less important, since they provide no revenue.

Microsoft must provide content provider and enable professional creators. Microsoft's business has been to supply tools to amateur content creators. Their roots of BASIC, DOS, Windows, Office, and Visual Basic let anyone (with or without specific degrees or certifications) create content for the market. With the rise of the "professional content creator", expect Microsoft to supply tools labeled (and priced) for professionals.

Interest in new programming languages. Expect a transition from the object-oriented languages (C++, Java, C#) to a new breed of languages that introduce ideas from functional programming. Languages such as Scala, Lua, Python, and Ruby will gain in popularity. C# will have a long life -- but not the C# we know today. Microsoft has added functional programming capabilities to the .NET platform, and modified the C# language to use them. C# will continue to change as Microsoft adapts to the market.

The new year brings lots of changes and a bit of uncertainty, and that's how it should be.