There is no Linux desktop

Every year, Linux enthusiasts hope that the new year will be the "year of the Linux desktop", the year that Linux dethrones Microsoft Windows as the chief desktop operating system.

I have bad news for the Linux enthusiasts.

There is no Linux desktop.

More specifically, there is not one Linux desktop. Instead, there is a multitude. There are multiple Linux distributions ("distros" in jargon) and it seems that each has its own ideas about the desktop. Some emulate Microsoft Windows, in an attempt to make it easy for people to convert from Windows to Linux. Other distros do things their own (and presumably better) way. Some distros focus on low-end hardware, others focus on privacy. Some focus on forensics, and others are tailored for tinkerers.

Distributions include: Debian, Ubuntu, Mint, SuSE, Red Hat, Fedora, Arch Linux, Elementary, Tails, Kubuntu, CentOS, and more.

The plethora of distributions splits the market. No one distribution is the "gold standard". No one distribution is the leader.

Here's what I consider the big problem for Linux: The split market discourages some software vendors from entering it. If you have a new application, do you support all of the distros or just some? Which ones? How do you test all of the distros that you support? What do you do with customers who use distros that you don't support?

Compared to Linux, the choice of releasing for Windows and macOS is rather simple. Either you support Windows or you don't. (And by "Windows" I mean "Windows 10".) Either you support mac OS or you don't. (The latest version of mac OS.) Windows and macOS each provide a single platform, with a single installation method, and a single API. (Yes, I am simplifying here. Windows has multiple ways to install an application, but it is clear that Microsoft is transitioning to the Universal app.)

I see nothing to reduce the number of Linux distros, so this condition will continue. We will continue to enjoy the benefits of multiple Linux distributions, and I believe that to be good for Linux.

But it does mean that the Evil Plan to take over all desktops will have to wait.

Predictions for tech in 2019

Predictions are fun! They allow us to see into the future -- or at least claim that we can see into the future. They also allow us to step away from the usual topics and talk about almost anything we want. Who could resist making predictions?

So here are my predictions for 2019:

Programming languages: The current "market" for programming languages is fractured. There is no one language that dominates. The ten most popular languages (according to Tiobe) are Java, C, Python, C++, VB.NET, C#, JavaScript, PHP, SQL, and Objective-C. The top ten are not evenly distributed; Java and C are in a "lead group" and the remaining languages are in a second group.

O'Reilly lists Python, Java, Go, C#, Kotlin, and Rust as languages to watch for 2019. Notice that this list is different from Tiobe's "most popular" -- Rust and Kotlin show on that index in positions 34 and 36, respectively. Notably absent from O"Reilly's list are C++ and Perl.

For 2019, I predict that the market will remain fragmented. Java will remain in the lead group unless Oracle, who owns Java, does something that discourages Java development. (And even then, so many systems are currently written in Java that Java will remain in use for years. Java will be the COBOL of the 2020s: used in important business systems but not liked very much by younger developers.) C will remain in the lead group. (The popularity of C is hard to explain. But whatever C has, people like.)

Fragmentation makes life difficult for managers. Which languages should their teams use? A single leader makes the decision easy. The current market, with multiple capable languages allows for debates about development languages. An established project provides the argument of sticking with the current programming language; a new project (with no existing code) makes the decision somewhat harder. (My advice: pick a popular language that gets the job done for you. Don't worry about it being the best language. Good enough is... good enough.)

Operating systems: Unlike the "market" for programming languages, the "market" for operating systems is fairly uniform. I should say "markets": we can consider the desktop/laptop segment, the server segment, and possibly a cloud segment. For the desktop, Windows is dominant, and will remain dominant in 2019. Windows 10 is capable and especially good for large organizations who want centralized administration. MacOS is used in a number of shops, especially smaller organizations and startups, and will continue to have a modest share.

For servers, Linux dominates and will continue to dominate in 2019. Windows runs some servers, and will continue to, especially in organizations who consider themselves "Microsoft shops".

The interesting future for operating systems is the cloud segment. Cloud services run on operating systems, usually Linux or Windows, but this is changing on two fronts. The first is the hypervisor, which sits below the virtual operating system in a cloud environment; the second is containers, which sit above the virtual operating system (and which contain an application).

Hypervisors are well-understood and well established. Containers are new (well, new-ish) and not as well understood, but gaining acceptance. Between the two sits the operating system, which is coming under pressure as hypervisors and containers perform tasks that were traditionally performed by operating systems.

In the long run, hypervisors, containers, and operating systems will achieve a new equilibrium, with operating systems doing less than they have in the past. The question will not be "Which operating system for my cloud application?" but instead "Which combination of hypervisor, operating system, and container for my cloud application?". And even then, there may be large shops that use a mixture of hypervisor, operating system, and container for their applications.

Virtual reality and augmented reality: Both will remain experimental. We have yet to find a "killer app" for augmented reality, something that combines real-world and supplied visuals in a compelling application.

Cloud services: Amazon.com dominates the market, and I see little to change that. Microsoft and Google will maintain (and possibly increase) their market shares. Other players (IBM, Dell, Oracle) will remain small.

The list of services available from cloud providers is impressive and daunting. Amazon is in a difficult position; its services are less consistent than Microsoft's and Google's. Both Microsoft and Google came into the market after Amazon and developed their offerings more slowly. The result has been a smaller market share but a more consistent set of services (and, I dare say, a better experience for the customer). Amazon may change some services to make things more consistent.

Phones: Little will change in 2019. Apple and Android will remain dominant. 5G will get press and slow roll-out by carriers; look for true implementation and wide coverage in later years.

Tablets: 2019 may be the "last year of the tablet" -- at least the non-laptop convertible tablet. Tablet sales have been anemic, except for iPads, and even those are declining. Apple could introduce an innovation to the iPad which increases its appeal, but I don't see that. (I think Apple will focus on phones, watches, earphones, and other consumer devices.)

I see little interest in tablets from other manufacturers, probably due to the lack of demand by customers. As Android is the only other (major) operating system for tablets, innovation for Android tablets will have to come from Google, and I see little interest from Google in tablets. (I think Google is more interested in phones, location-based services, and advertising.)

In sum, I see 2019 as a year of "more of the same", with few or no major innovations. I suspect that the market for tech will, at the end of 2019, look very much like the market for tech at the beginning of 2019.

The ultimate desktop OS

The phrase "ultimate desktop OS" is inspiring and attention-getting. While we might think that the "ultimate" desktop operating system is an unreachable dream, it is possible that it can exist, that it does exist, and that we have seen it.

That ultimate desktop operating system may be, in fact, Windows 7.

It is quite possible that Windows 7 is the peak of desktop operating systems. Its successor, Windows 8, is geared for tablets, not desktops. (And now you see why I have been carefully using the phrase "desktop operating system".)

Some might argue that it is not Windows 7 that is the "bestest" operating system for desktops, that the award for "best desktop operating system" should go to Windows XP, or perhaps Ubuntu Linux 10.04. These are worthy contenders for the title.

I won't quibble about the selection.

Instead, I will observe that desktop PCs have peaked, that they have reached their potential, and the future belongs to another device. (In my mind, that device is the tablet.)

Should you dispute this idea, let me ask you this: If you were to build a new app, something from scratch (not a re-hash of e-mail or word processing), would you build it for the desktop or for the tablet? I would build it for the tablet, and I think a majority of developers would agree.

And that is why I say that desktop operating systems have peaked. The future belongs to the tablet. (And the cloud, for back-end processing.)

If tablets are the future -- and I believe that they are -- then it really doesn't matter that Microsoft releases a new version of Windows for desktops. (Who gets excited when IBM releases a new version of MVS?) Yes, some folks will welcome the new version of Windows, but they will be a minority.

Instead of new versions of Windows, we will be looking for new versions of iOS and Android.

Microsoft Visual Studio Express abandons the desktop

Visual Studio 2011 Express Edition (the free version) does not support desktop applications.

By abandoning the desktop for entry-level users, Microsoft is sending a clear message: the Windows desktop is now a mature market. By "mature", Microsoft is limiting development of desktop applications to professionals -- people who are willing to pay for the tools. The hobbyists are "guided" into the web and Metro environments.

As I see it, Microsoft recognizes different futures for desktop and web/Metro applications. Web apps and Metro apps have a vibrant future with lots of growth and creativity. Desktop apps... don't. Desktop apps are maintained, but not enhanced.

This is not to say that desktop apps will go away. There are too many businesses with too many critical applications that run on the desktop.

But it does confirm a shift in the landscape. New apps will be mobile (iPhone/Android/Metro) apps. Or web apps, for those organizations that do not want to move to mobile.

Just as mainframe applications are still with us (billing systems, payroll, general ledger...) Windows desktop applications will remain with us. But the environment is now sterile. It bears no fruit.

Microsoft's choice with its latest offering of Visual Studio is the right one. Hobbyists and beginners must work in fertile environments.

Predictions for 2012

Happy new year!

The turning of the year provides a time to pause, look back, and look ahead. Looking ahead can be fun, since we can make predictions.

Here are my predictions for computing in the coming year:

With the rise of mobile apps, we will see changes in project requirements and in the desires of candidates.

The best talent will work on mobile apps. The best talent will -- as always -- work on the "cool new stuff". The "cool new stuff" will be mobile apps. The C#/.NET and Java applications will be considered "that old stuff". Look for the bright, creative programmers and designers to flock to companies building mobile apps. Companies maintaining legacy applications will have to hire the less enthusiastic workers.

Less funding for desktop applications. Desktop applications will be demoted to "legacy" status. Expect a reduced emphasis on their staffing. These projects will be viewed as less important to the organization, and will see less training, less tolerance for "Fast Company"-style project teams, and lower compensation. Desktop projects will be the standard, routine, bureaucratic (and boring) projects of classic legacy shops. The C# programmers will be sitting next to, eating lunch with, and reminiscing with, the COBOL programmers.

More interest in system architects. Mobile applications are a combination of front end apps (the iPhone and iPad apps) and back-end systems that store and supply data. Applications like Facebook and Twitter work only because the front end app can call upon the back end systems to obtain data (updates submitted by other users). Successful applications will need people who can visualize, describe, and lead the team in building mobile applications.

More interest in generalists. Companies will look to bring on people skilled in multiple areas (coding, testing, and user interfaces). They will be less interested in specialists who know a single area -- with a few exceptions of the "hot new technologies".

Continued fracturing of the tech world. Amazon.com, Apple, and Google will continue to build their walled gardens of devices, apps, and media. Music and books available from Amazon.com will not be usable in the Apple world (although available on the iPod and iPad in the Amazon.com Kindle app). Music and books from Apple will not be available on Amazon.com Kindles and Google devices. Consumers will continue to accept this model. (Although like 33 RPM LPs and 45 PRM singles, consumers will eventually want a music and books on multiple devices. But that is a year or two away.)

Cloud computing will be big, popular, and confused. Different cloud suppliers offer different types of cloud services. Amazon.com's EC2 offering is a set of virtual machines that allow one to "build up" from there, installing operating systems and applications. Microsoft's Azure is a set of virtual machines with Windows/.NET and one may build applications starting at a higher level that Amazon's offering. Salesforce.com offers their cloud platform that lets one build applications at an even higher level. Lots of folks will want cloud computing, and vendors will supply it -- in the form that the vendor offers. When people from different "clouds" meet, they will be confused that the "other guy's cloud" is different from theirs.

Virtualization will fade into the background. It will be useful in large shops, and it will not disappear. It is necessary for cloud computing. But it will not be the big star. Instead, it will be a quiet, necessary technology, joining the ranks of power management, DASD management, telecommunications, and network administration. Companies will need smart, capable people to make it work, but they will be reluctant to pay for them.

Telework will exist, quietly. I expect that the phrase "telework" will be reserved for traditional "everyone works in the office" companies that allow some employees to work in remote locations. For them, the default will be "work in the office" and the exception will be "telework". In contrast, small companies (especially start-ups) will leverage faster networks, chat and videoconferencing, mobile devices, and social networks. Their standard mode of operation will be "work from wherever" but they won't think of themselves as offering "telework". From their point of view, it will simply be "how we do business", and they won't need a word to distinguish it. (They may, however, create a word to describe folks who insist on working in company-supplied space every day. Look for new companies to call these people "in-house employees" or "residents".)

Understand the sea change of the iPad. The single-app interface works for people consuming information. The old-fashioned multi-windowed desktop interface works for people composing and creating information. This change leads to a very different approach to the design of applications. This year people will understand the value of the "swipe" interface and the strengths of the "keyboard" interface.

Voice recognition will be the hot new tech. With the success of "Siri" (and Android's voice recognizer "Majel"), expect interest in voice recognition technology and apps designed for voice.

Content delivery becomes important. Content distributors (Amazon.com, Google, and Apple) become more important, as they provide exclusive content within their walled gardens. The old model of a large market in which anyone can write and sell software will change to a market controlled by the delivery channels. The model becomes one similar to the movie industry (a few studios producing and releasing almost all movies) and the record industry (a few record labels producing and releasing almost all music) and the book industry (a few publishing houses... you get the idea).

Content creation becomes more professional. With content delivery controlled by the few major players, the business model becomes less "anyone can put on a show" and more of "who do you know". Consumers and companies will have higher expectations of content and the abilities of those who prepare it.

Amateur producers will still exist, but with less perceived value. Content that is deemed "professional" (that is, for sale on the market) will be developed by professional teams. Other content (such as the day-to-day internal memos and letters) will be composed by amateur content creators: the typical office worker equipped with a word processor, a spreadsheet, and e-mail will be viewed as less important, since they provide no revenue.

Microsoft must provide content provider and enable professional creators. Microsoft's business has been to supply tools to amateur content creators. Their roots of BASIC, DOS, Windows, Office, and Visual Basic let anyone (with or without specific degrees or certifications) create content for the market. With the rise of the "professional content creator", expect Microsoft to supply tools labeled (and priced) for professionals.

Interest in new programming languages. Expect a transition from the object-oriented languages (C++, Java, C#) to a new breed of languages that introduce ideas from functional programming. Languages such as Scala, Lua, Python, and Ruby will gain in popularity. C# will have a long life -- but not the C# we know today. Microsoft has added functional programming capabilities to the .NET platform, and modified the C# language to use them. C# will continue to change as Microsoft adapts to the market.

The new year brings lots of changes and a bit of uncertainty, and that's how it should be.