In the past, IT shops standardized their technologies, often around the vendor deemed the industry leader. In the 1960s and 1970s, that leader was IBM. They offered products for all of your computing needs, from computers to terminals to printers and even punch cards.
In the 1980s and 1990s, it was Microsoft. They offered products for all of your computing needs, from operating systems to compilers to office suites to user management. (Microsoft offered little in hardware, but then hardware was considered a commodity and available from multiple sources.)
Today, things are not so simple. No one vendor that provides products and services for "all of your computing needs". The major vendors are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com, Google, and a few others.
Microsoft has a line of offerings, but it is weak in the mobile area. Sales of Microsoft tablets, Microsoft phones, and Windows Mobile are anemic. Anyone who wants to offer services in the mobile market must deal with either Apple or Google (and preferably both, as neither has a clear lead).
Apple has a line of offerings, but is weak in the enterprise area. They offer tools for development of apps to run on their devices but little support for server-side development. Anyone who wants to offer services that use server-side applications must look to Microsoft or Google.
Amazon.com offers cloud services and consumer devices (the Kindle) but is weak on development tools and transaction databases. Google offers cloud services and consumer devices as well, but lacks the enterprise-level administration tools.
Complicating matters is the plethora of open-source tools, many of which are not tied to a specific vendor. The Apache web server, the Perl and Python languages, several NoSQL databases, and development tools are available but not with the blessings (and support) from vendors.
Development teams must now cope with the following:
Browsers: Internet Explorer, Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and possibly Opera
Desktop operating systems: Windows (versions 7, 8, and 10), MacOS X, Linux (Ubuntu, SuSE, and Red Hat)
Platforms: desktop, tablet, phone
Mobile operating systems: iOS, Android, and possibly Blackberry and Windows
Database technologies: SQL and NoSQL
HTTP servers: Apache, NGINX, and IIS
Programming languages: C#, Java, Swift, Python, Ruby, and maybe C++ or C
Cloud platforms: Amazon.com AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google cloud
Cloud paradigms: public cloud, private cloud, or hybrid
I find this an impressive list. You may have some factors of your own to add. (Then the list is even more impressive.)
This fragmentation of technology affects your business. I can think of several areas of concern.
The technology for your systems You have to decide which technologies to use. I suppose you could pick all of them, using one set of technology for one project and another set of technology for another project. That may be useful in the very short term, but may lead to an inconsistent product line. For example, one product may run on Android phones and tablets (only), and another may run on Apple phones and tablets (only).
Talent for that technology Staffing teams is an on-going effort. If your project uses HTML 5, CSS, JavaScript, and Python with a NoSQL database, you will need developers with that set of skills. But developers don't know everything (even though some may claim that they do) and you may find few with that exact set of technology. Are you willing to hire someone without on of your desired skills and let that person learn them?
Mergers and acquisitions Combining systems may be tricky. If you acquire a small firm that uses native Android apps and a C#/.NET server-side system, how do you consolidate that system into your HTML, CSS, JavaScript, Python shop? Or do you maintain two systems with distinct technologies? (Refer to "inconsistent offerings", above.)
There are no simple answers to these questions. Some shops will standardize on a set of technologies, combining offerings from multiple vendors. Some will standardize on a vendor, with the hope of a future industry leader that sets the standard for the market. Many will probably have heated arguments about their selections, and some individuals may leave, staying more loyal to the technology than the employer.
My advice is to keep informed, set standards when necessary, and keep systems small and simple. Position your technology to shift with changes in the industry. (For example, native apps on Apple devices will shift from Objective-C to Swift.) If your systems are large and complicated, redesign them to be smaller and simpler.
Build and maintain systems with the idea that they will change.
They probably will. Sooner than you think.
Showing posts with label technology leader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology leader. Show all posts
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
With no clear IT leader, expect lots of changes
The introduction of the IBM PC was market-wrenching. Overnight, the small, rough-and-tumble market of microcomputers with diverse designs from various small vendors became large and centered around the PC standard.
From 1981 to 1987, IBM was the technology leader. IBM lead in sales and also defined the computing platform.
IBM's leadership fell to Compaq in 1987, when IBM introduced the PS/2 line with its new (incompatible) hardware. Compaq delivered old-style PCs with a faster buss (the EISA buss) and notably the Intel 80386 processor. (IBM stayed with the older 80286 and 8086 processors, eventually consenting to provide 80386-based PS/2 units.) Compaq even worked with Microsoft to deliver newer versions of MS-DOS that recognized larger memory capacity and optical disc readers.
But Compaq did not remain the leader. It's leadership declined gradually, to the clone makers and especially Dell, HP, and Gateway.
The mantle of leadership moved from a PC manufacturer to the Microsoft-Intel duopoly. The popularity of Windows, along with marketing skill and software development prowess led to a stable configuration for Microsoft and Intel. Together, they out-competed IBM's OS/2, Motorola's 68000 processor, DEC's Alpha processor, and Apple's Macintosh line.
That configuration held for two decades, roughly from 1990 to 2010, when Apple introduced the iPhone. The genius move was not the iPhone hardware, but the App Store and iTunes, which let one easily find and install apps on your phone (and pay for them).
Now Microsoft and Apple have the same problem: after years of competing in a well-defined market (the corporate PC market) they struggle to move into the world of mobile computing. Microsoft's attempts at mobile devices (Zune, Kin, Surface RT) have flopped. Intel is desperately attempting to design and build processors that are suitable for low-power devices.
I don't expect either Microsoft or Intel to disappear. (At least not for several years, possibly decades.) The PC market is strong, and Intel can sell a lot of its traditional (heat radiator that happen to compute data) processors. Microsoft is a competent player in the cloud arena with its Azure services.
But I will make an observation: for the first time in the PC era, we find that there is no clear leader for technology. The last time we were leaderless was prior to the IBM PC, in the "microcomputer era" of Radio Shack TRS-80 and Apple II computers. Back then, the market was fractured and tribal. Hardware ruled, and your choice of hardware defined your tribe. Apple owners were in the Apple tribe, using Apple-specific software and exchanging data on Apple-specific floppy disks. Radio Shack owners were in the Radio Shack tribe, using software specific to the TRS-80 computers and exchanging data on TRS-80 diskettes. Exchanging data between tribes was one of the advanced arts, and changing tribes was extremely difficult.
There were some efforts to unify computing: CP/M was the most significant. Built by Digital Research (a software company with no interest in hardware), CP/M ran on many different configurations. Yet even that effort could not span the differences in processors, memory layout, and video configurations.
Today we see tribes forming around multiple architectures. For cloud computing, we have Amazon.com's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, Google's App Engine. With virtualization we see VMware, Oracle's VirtualBox, the aforementioned cloud providers, and newcomer Docker as a rough analog of CP/M. Mobile computing sees Apple's iOS, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows RT as a (very) distant third.
With no clear leader and no clear standard, I expect each vendor to enhance their offerings and also attempt to lock in customers with proprietary features. In the mobile space, Apple's Swift and Microsoft's C# are both proprietary languages. Google's choice of Java puts them (possibly) at odds with Oracle -- although Oracle seems to be focussed on databases, servers, and cloud offerings, so there is no direct conflict. Things are a bit more collegial in the cloud space, with vendors supporting OpenStack and Docker. But I still expect proprietary enhancements, perhaps in the form of add-ons.
All of this means that the technology world is headed for change. Not just change from desktop PC to mobile/cloud, but changes in mobile/cloud. The competition from vendors will lead to enhancements and changes, possibly significant changes, in cloud computing and mobile platforms. The mobile/cloud platform will be a moving target, with revisions as each vendor attempts to out-do the others.
Those changes mean risk. As platforms change, applications and systems may break or fail in unexpected ways. New features may offer better ways of addressing problems and the temptation to use those new features will be great. Yet re-designing a system to take advantage of new infrastructure features may mean that other work -- such as new business features -- waits for resources.
One cannot ignore mobile/cloud computing. (Well, I suppose one can, but that is probably foolish.) But one cannot, with today's market, depend on a stable platform with slow, predictable changes like we had with Microsoft Windows.
With such an environment, what should one do?
My recommendations:
Build systems of small components This is the Unix mindset, with small tools to perform specific tasks. Avoid large, monolithic systems.
Use standard interfaces Use web services (either SOAP or REST) to connect components into larger systems. Use JSON and Unicode to exchange data, not proprietary formats.
Hedge your bets Gain experience in at least two cloud platforms and two mobile platforms. Resist the temptation of "corporate standards". Standards are good with a predictable technology base. The current base is not predictable, and placing your eggs in one vendor's basket is risky.
Change your position After a period of use, examine your systems, your tools, and your talent. Change vendors -- not for everything, but for small components. (You did build your system from small, connected components, right?) Migrate some components to another vendor; learn the process and the difficulties. You'll want to know them when you are forced to move to a different vendor.
Many folks involved in IT have been living in the "golden age" of a stable PC platform. They may have weathered the change from desktop to web -- which saw a brief period of uncertainty. More than likely, they think that the stable world is the norm. All that is fine -- except we're not in the normal world with mobile/cloud. Be prepared for change.
From 1981 to 1987, IBM was the technology leader. IBM lead in sales and also defined the computing platform.
IBM's leadership fell to Compaq in 1987, when IBM introduced the PS/2 line with its new (incompatible) hardware. Compaq delivered old-style PCs with a faster buss (the EISA buss) and notably the Intel 80386 processor. (IBM stayed with the older 80286 and 8086 processors, eventually consenting to provide 80386-based PS/2 units.) Compaq even worked with Microsoft to deliver newer versions of MS-DOS that recognized larger memory capacity and optical disc readers.
But Compaq did not remain the leader. It's leadership declined gradually, to the clone makers and especially Dell, HP, and Gateway.
The mantle of leadership moved from a PC manufacturer to the Microsoft-Intel duopoly. The popularity of Windows, along with marketing skill and software development prowess led to a stable configuration for Microsoft and Intel. Together, they out-competed IBM's OS/2, Motorola's 68000 processor, DEC's Alpha processor, and Apple's Macintosh line.
That configuration held for two decades, roughly from 1990 to 2010, when Apple introduced the iPhone. The genius move was not the iPhone hardware, but the App Store and iTunes, which let one easily find and install apps on your phone (and pay for them).
Now Microsoft and Apple have the same problem: after years of competing in a well-defined market (the corporate PC market) they struggle to move into the world of mobile computing. Microsoft's attempts at mobile devices (Zune, Kin, Surface RT) have flopped. Intel is desperately attempting to design and build processors that are suitable for low-power devices.
I don't expect either Microsoft or Intel to disappear. (At least not for several years, possibly decades.) The PC market is strong, and Intel can sell a lot of its traditional (heat radiator that happen to compute data) processors. Microsoft is a competent player in the cloud arena with its Azure services.
But I will make an observation: for the first time in the PC era, we find that there is no clear leader for technology. The last time we were leaderless was prior to the IBM PC, in the "microcomputer era" of Radio Shack TRS-80 and Apple II computers. Back then, the market was fractured and tribal. Hardware ruled, and your choice of hardware defined your tribe. Apple owners were in the Apple tribe, using Apple-specific software and exchanging data on Apple-specific floppy disks. Radio Shack owners were in the Radio Shack tribe, using software specific to the TRS-80 computers and exchanging data on TRS-80 diskettes. Exchanging data between tribes was one of the advanced arts, and changing tribes was extremely difficult.
There were some efforts to unify computing: CP/M was the most significant. Built by Digital Research (a software company with no interest in hardware), CP/M ran on many different configurations. Yet even that effort could not span the differences in processors, memory layout, and video configurations.
Today we see tribes forming around multiple architectures. For cloud computing, we have Amazon.com's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, Google's App Engine. With virtualization we see VMware, Oracle's VirtualBox, the aforementioned cloud providers, and newcomer Docker as a rough analog of CP/M. Mobile computing sees Apple's iOS, Google's Android, and Microsoft's Windows RT as a (very) distant third.
With no clear leader and no clear standard, I expect each vendor to enhance their offerings and also attempt to lock in customers with proprietary features. In the mobile space, Apple's Swift and Microsoft's C# are both proprietary languages. Google's choice of Java puts them (possibly) at odds with Oracle -- although Oracle seems to be focussed on databases, servers, and cloud offerings, so there is no direct conflict. Things are a bit more collegial in the cloud space, with vendors supporting OpenStack and Docker. But I still expect proprietary enhancements, perhaps in the form of add-ons.
All of this means that the technology world is headed for change. Not just change from desktop PC to mobile/cloud, but changes in mobile/cloud. The competition from vendors will lead to enhancements and changes, possibly significant changes, in cloud computing and mobile platforms. The mobile/cloud platform will be a moving target, with revisions as each vendor attempts to out-do the others.
Those changes mean risk. As platforms change, applications and systems may break or fail in unexpected ways. New features may offer better ways of addressing problems and the temptation to use those new features will be great. Yet re-designing a system to take advantage of new infrastructure features may mean that other work -- such as new business features -- waits for resources.
One cannot ignore mobile/cloud computing. (Well, I suppose one can, but that is probably foolish.) But one cannot, with today's market, depend on a stable platform with slow, predictable changes like we had with Microsoft Windows.
With such an environment, what should one do?
My recommendations:
Build systems of small components This is the Unix mindset, with small tools to perform specific tasks. Avoid large, monolithic systems.
Use standard interfaces Use web services (either SOAP or REST) to connect components into larger systems. Use JSON and Unicode to exchange data, not proprietary formats.
Hedge your bets Gain experience in at least two cloud platforms and two mobile platforms. Resist the temptation of "corporate standards". Standards are good with a predictable technology base. The current base is not predictable, and placing your eggs in one vendor's basket is risky.
Change your position After a period of use, examine your systems, your tools, and your talent. Change vendors -- not for everything, but for small components. (You did build your system from small, connected components, right?) Migrate some components to another vendor; learn the process and the difficulties. You'll want to know them when you are forced to move to a different vendor.
Many folks involved in IT have been living in the "golden age" of a stable PC platform. They may have weathered the change from desktop to web -- which saw a brief period of uncertainty. More than likely, they think that the stable world is the norm. All that is fine -- except we're not in the normal world with mobile/cloud. Be prepared for change.
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