All the Windows 10 PCs

Microsoft's Windows 11 is not compatible with much of the existing PCs in the world. Microsoft gave no reasons for such incompatibility, but we can deduce that by specifying a certain level of hardware (processor and memory, mostly) Microsoft was able to implement certain features for security.

Regardless of the reason, a lot of PCs could not move to Windows 11, and therefore stayed on Windows 10. Soon, support for Windows 10 will stop, and those PCs will not get updates -- not even security updates. (Microsoft does offer extended support for a small fee.)

What's going to happen to all of those Windows 10 PCs? Microsoft recommends that you upgrade to Windows 11, and if that is not possible, replace (or recycle) your PC. Here's what I think will happen.

A large number of Windows 10 PCs (perhaps the majority) will stay on Windows 10. People will continue to use the PC, with Windows 10, to do their normal tasks. They won't get security updates, and that they will be okay with that.

Some number of Windows 10 PCs will be replaced. I suspect that this number (as a percentage of Windows PCs) is small. The people who want Windows 11 already have it. A few people may be waiting for the "right time" to upgrade to Windows 11, so they will replace their PCs.

Some number of Windows 10 PCs will be converted to Linux. This may be a smaller percentage than either of the "stay on Windows 10" or "replace" crowds.

I should point out that many PCs that are replaced are then sold to people who resell them. Some will physically destroy the PC, but others simply reformat the disk (or replace the disk) and resell the PC, either with Windows or with Linux. Thus, a PC that is "replaced" can continue its life as a Linux PC.

All in all, the decision by Microsoft to make some PCs obsolete (sort of) will lead to an increase in the number of PCs running Linux.

For me, this decision is personal. I have an old-ish HP laptop which runs Windows 10. It won't run Windows 11 -- even with Microsoft loosening the requirements for Windows 11. I have a decision: keep Windows 10, or switch to Linux. (I like the laptop and want to keep using it.)

Keeping Windows 10 is easy, but offers little benefit. I use Windows for few tasks (most of my work is in Linux) and there are only two items that require Windows: remote access to the office, and administering some old Apple Time Capsules and Airports.

My other option is to convert it to Linux. Conversion is also easy -- I've installed Linux on a number of other PCs. Once converted, I may need to use WINE to run the Apple Airport administration program. (Or I may simply replace the Apple Time Capsules and Airports with modern file servers and routers.) Access to the office isn't that important. The office supplies me with an official PC for access; my personal Windows PC is a back-up method when the official PC fails. (Which it has not done for as long as I can remember.)

So I think I will take up Microsoft's suggestion to get off of Windows 10. But it won't be to go to Windows 11. I have another PC running Windows 11; I don't need two.

The Future of your Windows XP PC

Suppose you have one (or several) PCs running Windows XP. Microsoft has announced the end-of-life date for Windows XP (about a year from now). What to do?

You have several options:

Upgrade to Windows 8: This probably requires new hardware, since Windows 8 requires a bit more than Windows XP. If you want to use a touchscreen, you are looking at not upgrading your PC system to Windows 8 but replacing all of the hardware.

Windows 8 uses the new "Modern/Metro" UI which is a significant change from Windows XP. Your users may find the new interface unfamiliar.

Upgrade to Windows 7: Like Windows 8, Windows 7 probably requires new hardware. You are replacing your PC, not upgrading it. (Perhaps you keep the monitor, mouse, and keyboard.)

The UI in Windows 7 is closer to Windows XP, but there are still changes. The user experience is quite close to Windows XP; the system administrator will see the changes.

Switch to Mac: Instead of upgrading to Windows 8 or Windows 7, you can switch to an Apple Macintosh PC running OSX. This requires new versions of your software. Now you are replacing hardware and software, hardly a simple upgrade.

The user interface and administration of OSX is different from Windows, another cost of conversion.

Switch to Linux: Instead of upgrading to a version of Windows, you can switch to Linux. This is one option that lets you keep your current hardware. There are several Linux distros that are designed to run on limited hardware.

The Linux UI is different, but closer to Windows than Mac OSX, and can be tuned to look like Windows. Software may or may not be a challenge. The major browsers (except Internet Explorer) run on Linux. LibreOffice can replace Microsoft Office for most tasks. Commodity software be replaced with open source packages (GIMP for PhotoShop, for example). The WINE package can run some Windows applications, so you may be able to keep your custom (that is, non-commodity) software. (Or perhaps not; some software will run only on Windows.)

Keep Windows XP: This option may be missing from some consultant recommendations, but it is a possible path. There is nothing that will prevent you from running your existing hardware with your existing software. Windows XP has no self-destruct timer, and will continue to run after the "end of life" date.

But staying with Windows XP has costs. They are deferred costs, not immediate costs. They are gradual, not sharply defined. It is the "death by a thousand cuts" approach. You can keep running Windows XP, but small things will break, and then larger things.

Here's what will probably happen:

You get no updates from Microsoft, and you don't have to apply them and reboot Windows. You may think that this is an improvement. It is, in that you don't lose time applying updates. The downside is that your system's vulnerabilities remain unfixed.

As other things in your environment change, you will find that the Windows XP system does not work with the new items. When you add a printer, the Windows XP system will not have a driver for the it. When your software update arrives (perhaps for Adobe Acrobat), the update will politely tell you that the new version is not supported under Windows XP. (If you are lucky, the update will tell you this *before* it modifies your system. Less fortunate folks will learn this only after the new software has been installed and refuses to run.)

New versions of browsers will fail to install. Stuck with old browsers, some web sites will give you warnings and complaints. Some web sites will fail in obvious ways. Others will fail in mysterious and frustrating ways -- perhaps not letting you log in, or complete a transaction.

Problems are not limited to hardware and software -- they can affect people, too.

Job candidates, upon learning that you use Windows XP, may decline to work with you. Some candidates may decline the job immediately. Others may hire on and then complain when you direct them to work with a Windows XP system.

Windows XP may be a problem when you look for system admins. Some may choose to work elsewhere, others may accept the job but demand higher rates. (And some seasoned sysadmins may be happy to work on an old friend.)

It may be that Windows XP (and corresponding applications) will act as a filter for your employees. Folks who want newer technologies will leave (or decline employment), folks who are comfortable with the older tech will stay (or hire on). Eventually many (if not all) of your staff will be familiar with older technologies and unfamiliar with new ones.

At some point, you will want to re-install Windows XP. Here you will encounter difficulties. Microsoft may (or may not) continue to support the activation servers for Windows XP. Without an activation code, Windows XP will not run. Even with the activation servers and codes, if you install on a new PC, Microsoft may reject the activation (thinking that you are attempting to exceed your license count). New hardware presents other problems: If the PC uses UEFI, it may fail to boot the Windows XP installer, which is not signed. If the PC has no CD drive, the Windows XP CD is useless.

You can stay with Windows XP, but the path is limited. Your system becomes fragile, dependent on a limited and shrinking set of technology. At some point, you will be forced to move to something else.

My advice: Move before you are forced to move. Move to a new operating system (and possibly new hardware) on your schedule, not on a schedule set by failing equipment. Migrations take time and require tests to ensure that the new equipment is working. You want to convert from Windows XP to your new environment with minimal risks and minimal disruptions.