Everyone who is not Apple

Apple has direct control over the design of their hardware and software, a situation that has not been seen in the history of personal computers. I expect that they will enjoy success -- at least for a while -- with new, powerful designs.

But what about everyone else? What about Microsoft, the maker of Windows, Office, Azure services, Surface tablets and laptops, and other things? What about Dell and Lenovo and Toshiba and HP, the makers of personal computers? What Google, the maker of Chromebooks and cloud services?

That's a big question, and it has a number of answers.

Microsoft has a number of paths forward, and will probably pursue several of them. For its Surface devices, it can design systems on a chip that correspond to Apple's M1 chips. Microsoft could use ARM CPUs; it has already ported Windows to ARM and offers the "Surface X" with ARM. Microsoft could design a system-on-a-chip that uses Intel CPUs; such would provide binary compatibility with current Windows applications. Intel chips generate more heat, but Microsoft has success with Intel chips in most of its Surface line, so a system-on-a-chip with Intel could be possible. These paths mirror the path that Apple has taken.

Microsoft, unlike Apple, has another possible way forward: cloud services. Microsoft could design efficient processors for the computers that run data centers, the computers that host virtual instances of Windows and Linux. Such a move would ease the shift of processing from laptops and desktop computers and the cloud. (Such a shift is possible today; system-on-chip designs make it more efficient.) Microsoft may work with Intel, or AMD, or even IBM to design and build efficient hardware for cloud data centers.

Manufacturers of personal computers may design their own system-on-chip answers to the M1 processor. Or they may form a consortium and design a common chip that can be used by all (still allowing for custom system-on-chip designs and the current discrete component designs). Microsoft has, for a long time, provided a reference document for the requirements of Windows, and system-on-chip designs would follow that set of requirements just as laptops and desktops today follow those requirements.

PC manufacturers do lose some control when they adopt a common design. A common design would be common, and available to all manufacturers. It prevents a manufacturer from enhancing the design by selecting better components. Rather than shift their entire product line to system-on-chip design, manufacturers will probably use the system-on-chip design for only some of the offerings, keeping some products with discrete designs (and enhancements to distinguish them from the competition).

Google does not have to follow the requirements for Windows; it has its own requirements for Chromebooks. System-on-chip design is a good fit for Chromebooks, which already use both Intel and ARM chips (and few users can see the difference). The performance improvement of system-on-chip design fits in nicely with Google's plan for games on Chromebooks. The increase in power allows for an increase in the sophistication of web-based apps.

I am willing to wait for Microsoft's response and for Google's response. I think we will see innovative designs and improvements to the computing experience. I expect Microsoft to push in two directions: system-on-chip designs for their Surface tablets, and cloud-based applications running on enhanced hardware. Google will follow a similar strategy, enhancing cloud hardware and improving the capabilities of Chromebooks.