The PC revolution was about infrastructure

Those of us who lived through the PC revolution like to think that PCs were significant advances in technology. They were advances, but in retrospect they were simply infrastructure.

Let's review the advances in PC technology:

Stand-alone PCs The original PCs were brought in as replacements for typewriters and calculators. This was a tactical use of PCs, one that improved the efficiency of the company but did not change the internal organization or the products and services offered by the company. The PC, with only word processors and spreadsheets, is not strong enough to make a strategic difference for a company.

Databases After some time, people figured out that PCs could be more than typewriters and calculators. There were custom PC applications, but more importantly there were the early databases (dBase II, dBase III, R:Base) and database languages (Clipper, Paradox) that let people store and retrieve data. These databases were single-user and stand-alone.

Networks The original PC networks (Novell, Banyan, Corvus) were introduced to share resources such as disks and printers. Printers (especially letter-quality printers) were expensive. Disks (large disks, say 40 MB) were also expensive. Sharing a common resource made economic sense. But the early networks were LANs (Local Area Networks) and confined to a single building.

Servers Initially part of "client/server systems", servers were database engines that handled requests from multiple clients. Client/server systems gave networks a significant purpose for existing: the ability to update a single database from multiple locations made it possible to migrate mainframe applications onto the cheaper PC platform.

The Internet Connecting networks made it possible for businesses to exchange information. The first big use of internet connections was e-mail; calendars followed quickly. Strictly speaking, the Internet is not a PC technology -- it was built mostly with minicomputers and Unix. The sockets libraries (WinSock) for PCs made the Internet accessible.

Web servers Built on these previous layers, the web is (now) a combination of PCs, minicomputers, mainframes, and rack-mounted servers. It is this layer that enables strategic as well as tactical advantages. Companies can provide self-service web pages (more of a tactical change, I think) and new services (strategic). New companies can form (Facebook, Twitter).

Virtualization The true advantage of virtualization is not consolidation of servers, but the ability to create or destroy machines quickly.

Cloud computing Once virtual machines were available and cheap, we created the cloud paradigm. Using an array of virtual computers, we can design applications that are distributed across multiple servers and are resistant to failure of any one of those servers. The distribution of work allows for scaling (up or down) as needed, adding or removing servers to handle the current load.

All of these technologies are now infrastructure. They are well-understood and easily available.

New technologies are plugging in to this infrastructure. Smartphones, tablets, and big data are all sitting on top of this (impressive) stack of technology. Smartphone and tablet apps use low-wattage user interfaces and connect to cloud computing systems for processing. Big data system use a similar design, with cloud computing engines providing the data for visualization software on PCs (or in web browsers).

When we built the first microcomputers, when we installed DOS on PCs, when we used modems to connect to bulletin-board systems, we thought we were creating the crest of technology. We thought we were building the top dog. But it didn't turn out that way. The PC and its later technologies let us build a significant computing stack.

Now that we have that stack, I think we can discard the traditional PC. The next decade should see the replacement of PCs. Not all at once, and at different rates in different environments. I expect PCs to exist in businesses for quite some time.

But disappear they shall.