From general to specific

We are entering a new age of computing.

The change is the shift from general to specific. PC hardware has been, since the initial PC up to now, standard and generic. One PC was very much like another PC, in terms of architecture and capacity. This standardization made the PC market possible, with PC manufacturers, accessory vendors, and software providers all working to a common standard.

To be sure, there was always some variation among PCs. Some had faster processors; some had more memory. Enthusiasts added super-large hard drives and super-fast video cards. But they all revolved around the PC standard. (A standard that evolved over time, moving from the original PC to the IBM PC AT to the Compaq Deskpro 386 to today's Intel-based desktops.)

Now we see the standard-issue technology splitting into distinct markets with distinct hardware. Many businesses have traded their desktop PCs for laptops and shifted "back end" work to cloud servers. Game consoles are not quite PCs: they contain specialized hardware and one cannot replace the operating system (at least not easily). The home PC is being replaced by tablets and smartphones. Hobbyists are experimenting with small-board systems like the Raspberry Pi and the BeagleBone.

For each of these uses, we are replacing the desktop PC with a smaller, specialized device.

The change is not limited to hardware. While businesses still run Microsoft Windows, other devices are moving to different operating systems. Game consoles run their own operating systems; even Microsoft's Xbox runs an operating system that is based on Windows but not quite the same as Windows on the desktop PC. Tablets and phones run iOS or Android. The hobbyists are using Linux.

The good old days of standard PCs saw PCs (and Windows) everywhere. The new age of specialization sees a fragmentation of that world, with separate hardware and software for the different types of users. This differentiation will allow the different markets to develop distinct pricing for hardware and software; already competition is driving down the prices of tablets to ranges unreachable by classic PCs.

I expect the job market to fracture alone similar lines. Office applications will stay within the classic PC realm and move slowly to cloud-based solutions. The development of games is already distinct. The consumer market of apps is almost fully emerged. As the hardware and software of these markets diverge, I expect the development tools and techniques, the advertising, and the pay scales to diverge.

Eventually, we will not have "an IT jobs market" or "an IT career path". Instead, we will have career paths in business, in games and interactive entertainment, and in consumer products. Each will include IT as we think of it today (hardware, software, development, testing, etc.) as part of a larger whole. The hobbyists will perhaps be different in that they will have not a market for the exchange of dollars but a community for the exchange of information. They too will use IT for larger goals -- perhaps education or research.

We will lose the PC standard. In its place will be a standard for business, another standard for games, yet other standards for consumers, and (most likely) a collection of diverse hardware for hobbyists. I will not mourn the passing of the PC standard. It served its purpose, letting us develop a strong set of technology for diverse challenges. Now we can move to the next level and use technology that is better suited to specific tasks.