Faster update cycles mean PC apps become expensive

Ah, for the good old days of slow hardware upgrades. It used to be that one could buy a computer system and use it for years, possibly even a decade. The software would be upgraded, but the hardware would last. One could run a business knowing the future of its IT (hardware and software) was predictable.

Today we have faster cycles for hardware upgrades. Cell phones, tablets, and some PCs (Apple) are updated in a matter of months, not decades. The causes are multiple: competition (especially among phone vendors), changes in technology, and a form of planned obsolescence (Apple) that sees existing customers buying new versions.

I expect that these faster cycles will move to the PC realm.

The change in the life span of PC hardware will affect consumers and businesses, with the greater impact on businesses. I expect individual consumers to move away from PCs and switch to phones, tablets, game consoles, and internet TV appliances.

Businesses have a challenge ahead. Corporate users typically don't want PCs; they want computing power. Specifically, they want computing power with a user interface that is consistent over time. (When a new version of Windows is introduced to a corporate environment, one of the first actions is to configure the user interface to look like the old version. The inability of Windows 8 to emulate Windows 7 exactly is probably the cause for corporate discomfort with it.)

But the challenge to business goes beyond the user interface. Corporations want stable computing platforms to hold their applications. They want to build a system (or buy one) and use it for a long time. Switching from one vendor's system to another's is an expensive proposition, and corporations amortize the conversion cost over a long life. A new system, or even a new version of a system, can impose changes to the user interface, interfaces to other systems, and interactions with the operating system and drivers. All of these changes are part of the cost of implementation.

In the corporation's mind, the fewer conversions, the better.

That philosophy is colliding with the faster pace of hardware. Apple is not alone in its rapid release of hardware and operating systems; Microsoft is releasing new versions of Windows at a rate much faster than the ten-year gap between Windows XP and Windows 7. (I'm ignoring Windows Vista.)

To adapt to the faster change, I expect corporations to shift from the PC platform to technologies that allow it to retain longer lifespans: virtual PCs and cloud computing. Virtual PCs are the easier change, allowing applications to be shifted directly onto the new platform. With remote access, a (fast-changing) real PC can access the (slow changing) "get the work done" virtual PC. In this case, virtualization and remote access act as a shock absorber for the change in technology.

Cloud computing offers a more efficient platform, but only after re-designing the application. The large monolithic PC applications must split into multiple services coordinated by (relatively) simple applications running on tablets and phones. In this case, the use of small, simple components on multiple platforms (server and tablet/phone) act as the buffer to changes in technology.

The PC platform will see faster update cycles and shorter life spans. Applications on this platform will be subject to more changes. A company's customer base will use more platforms, driving up the cost of development, testing, and support.

Moving to virtual PCs or to the cloud is a way of avoiding that increase in costs.