The next '2K' problem

It's been over thirteen years since the much-hyped 'Y2K' problem. We prepared for the great problem of two-digit dates and the rollover effect of the year 2000.

Now, another problem faces us. A "2K" problem, although different from the Y2K problem of thirteen years ago.

That problem is the "Windows 2000" problem.

While most folks have replaced their PCs and upgraded their operating systems, there are quite a few computers running Windows 2000 and Windows XP. I call these the "W2K" and "WXP" PCs. But these are not the typical office PCs -- these are hidden, or at least disguised.

Some of these "disguised" W2K and WXP PCs exist as:

• Automatic teller machines
• Ticket vending kiosks
• Information kiosks
• Restaurant management systems
• Patient scheduling and billing systems for doctors and dentists

The problem is compounded by the owners of these systems. The owners (banks, transit agencies, restaurateurs, and doctors) do not think of these systems as PCs that need to be upgraded. They think of them as appliances, akin to a microwave oven or a refrigerator. Expensive appliances, perhaps, but appliances. Most owners don't see them as needing to be upgraded.

Many of these systems are sold as turnkey systems. Instead of purchasing the software and installing it on separately purchased PCs, the hardware and software are sold as a package. This reinforces the notion of appliance.

The owners of these systems have forgotten (if they ever knew) that these "appliance" systems are PCs running Windows. They will be in for a rude surprise when they find out.

When will they learn that their reliable, use-it-every-day, system must be replaced?

For some, the notice will come early. Some vendors will actively approach their customers and recommend new versions (complete with a newer version of Windows and the hardware to support it). Such an upgrade is not cheap, however, and many customers may balk.

Other users will learn when their system fails. The failure may be caused by hardware (a drive stops working) or software (their new printer doesn't have a driver for Windows 2000) or by a virus (Microsoft will stop sending out security updates next year).

This W2K/WXP problem is unlike the Y2K problem in that failures will happen over time, not all at once. But it is worse than the Y2K problem because people are not expecting it, and are not prepared.

The lesson here is that businesses are built on many services, and a well-run business must be aware of them, and aware of the costs and the reliability. We have stable and regulated services for electricity, water, telephone, and internet services.

Automated systems are another form of service. Less regulated, and perhaps less stable. An upgrade to a new PC running Windows 7 may cost too much for the corner restaurant. That is an ugly way to lose a business.