Thursday, March 28, 2013

Mobile apps are (mostly) games, and that changes the industry

If you look at the spending on mobile apps, the dollars are weighted towards games.

These figures are skewed, or at least distributed the way they are, due to the nature of users and the state of mobile apps. Mobile devices tend to be used by individuals, not corporations. Yes, corporations purchase lots of Blackberry devices, iPhones, and Android phones. But individuals purchase the larger number. Why wouldn't people purchase games for their own devices? And why would a person purchase something boring like a word processor?

This distribution may change in the future, but I'm thinking that games will retain the largest portion of mobile app revenue. If they do, it may have effects on the development industry.

The last big changes in the focus of the software development industry may have been with the PC revolution. That revolution gave us computers small enough to be used by individuals, and those computers spurred the advance of development tools: editors, compilers, debuggers, and IDEs. The IDE was a significant advance over the previous approach of separate tools.

Before PCs, computers were expensive resources that had to be shared judiciously. Applications were designed for large projects that provided return on investment: ballistics calculations, statistical analysis, accounting, inventory, and payroll. The PC revolution also lead to the rise of word processors and spreadsheets. Individuals become much more productive in the corporation. Networks and e-mail gave us additional productivity.

Throughout the PC revolution, the focus was on corporate applications. Word processors, spreadsheets, and databases are clearly in the commercial (and government) domain. Compilers and debuggers are tools for programmers, a specific industry (and a very small number of hobbyists). Yes, there were games and there were personal digital assistants. But the money was in the office.

With mobile, the money has shifted to games. One can argue that the money was shifting to games without mobile devices: Xbox, PS2, and Wii are all successful (and profitable) platforms. Perhaps the shift was occurring and mobile happened to come along at the right time.

Game applications are definitely not for corporations. Games are for individuals, or groups of game-playing individuals.

With the shift of money from office applications to games, how will the development industry change? When people are the primary client, and games the primary type of application, will the top developers  focus their effort on game development? Will non-game corporations struggle to hire developers, or get only the second-tier programmers?

Will a games-driven software industry resemble Hollywood and the movie industry? Games and movies are both entertainment, not productivity tools. Some movies have games. (And some games now have movies.)

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