Apple and Fortnite

Events in the Apple vs. Fortnite dispute are unfolding rapidly. In less than a week, Fortnite modified their web page to allow payments outside of Apple's payments API (which meant that Apple could not extract a 30% toll), Apple removed Fortnite's app from the Apple App Store (which meant that customers can no longer install it on Apple devices), and Fortnite ran an advertisement video that parodies Apple's "1984" ad for the original Macintosh computer. Fortnite has also filed a lawsuit against Apple.

A few thoughts on this dispute:

First, Apple will probably win the lawsuit. It seems to be a contract dispute, and I think Apple's terms and conditions are strong enough to defend its actions. (Although I am not a lawyer and I am not offering legal advice.)

Second, Apple is probably surprised at the tactics used by Fortnite. I'm sure Apple is frequently involved in lawsuits, ranging from patent disputes to wrongful termination by employees. Most of these are handled quietly. Fortnite is running a very public campaign, and wants to make as much noise as possible. I'm not sure that Apple is prepared for a public dispute.

Third, Fortnite is prepared for this fight. The parody of Apple's "1984" advertisement shows that -- such a parody was not assembled in an afternoon hack session.

Fourth, Apple is the larger of the companies, and is therefore "punching down" against the smaller Fortnite. Apple faces the risk of looking bad, and must tread carefully. Carelessly worded statements by Apple will be received poorly.

Fifth, it seems that Fortnite is ready to walk away from the Apple platform. A public spat such as this one leaves little room for reconciliation.

Sixth, Apple is most likely ready for Fortnite to walk away. Apple recognizes that the revenue from Fortnite is a small portion of its overall income. Apple probably assumes that it can get other companies to provide games for Apple devices.

Finally, while Fortnite will probably lose in a court of law, they may win in the court of public opinion. This may be damaging to Apple. Apple has fans and followers, but I don't know that Apple has many friends. The fans and followers will stay with Apple, but partners and suppliers may become more cautious in their dealings with Apple. Small developers may delay releases for Apple devices, or may defer them indefinitely. For Apple to win, it needs more than lawyers -- it needs a good public relations campaign.