Apple and cloud computing

 Apple's tussle with Epic (the creators of Fortnite) shows a deeper problem for Apple. That problem is cloud computing.

Apple has avoided cloud computing, at least from its customers' perspectives. Apple is the last company to use the "run locally" model for its application. Apps for iPhones and iPads run on those devices, applications for Macbooks run on them. (Apple does use servers and possible cloud computing for iCloud storage and Siri, but those are accessories to macOS, not a front-and-center service.)

In contrast, Google's cloud-based Documents and Sheets apps let one build documents and spreadsheets in the cloud, with data stored on Google's servers and available from any device. I can create a document on a Chromebook, then open it on my Android phone, and later update it on a desktop PC with a Chrome browser. This works because the data is stored on Google's servers, and each device pulls the latest version when it is needed.

Microsoft is moving in this direction with its online version of Office tools. Even Oracle is moving to cloud-based computing.

Apple is staying with the old "local data, local execution" model, in which computing and data is on the local device. Bur Apple does let one move from one device to another (such as from an iPad to a Macbook) by synchronizing the data onto Apple's servers.

The difference is the location of processing. In Google's model (and in Microsoft's new model), processing occurs on the server. Apple keeps processing on the local device.

For simple tasks such as word processing and spreadsheets, the difference is negligible. One might even claim that local processing is better as it offers more options for documents and spreadsheets. (More fonts, more chart options, more functions in spreadsheets.) The counter-argument is that the simpler cloud-based apps are better because they are simpler and easier to use.

Regardless of your preference for simple or complex word processors, cloud computing is also used by games, and games are a significant market. More and more games are shifting from a model of "local processing with come communication to other users" to a model of "some local processing to communications with servers for more processing". In other words, games are using a hybrid model of local processing and cloud processing.

This shift is a problem for Apple, because it breaks from the "all processing is local" model that Apple uses.

What is Apple to do? They have two choices. They can stay with the "all processing is local" model (and ignore cloud computing) or they can adopt cloud computing (most likely as a hybrid form, with some processing in the cloud and some processing remaining on the local computer).

Ignoring cloud computing seems risky. Everyone is moving to cloud computing, and Apple would be left out of a lot of innovations (and markets). So let's assume that Apple adopts some form of cloud computing, and enables developers of applications for Apple devices to run some functions in the cloud.

How will Apple host their cloud platform? Here again there are two choices. Apple can build their own cloud platform, or they can use someone else's.

Building their own cloud infrastructure is not easy. Apple comes late to cloud computing, and will have a lot of work to build their infrastructure. Apple probably has the time to do it, and most definitely has the cash to build data centers and hire the engineers and system administrators.

But the alternative -- using someone else's cloud -- is also not easy. Apple is not friends with the major cloud providers (Amazon.com, Microsoft, Google) but it may form alliances with one of the smaller providers (Oracle, Dell, IBM) or it might purchase a small cloud provider (Linode, Digital Ocean, OVH). Apple has the cash to make such a purchase. While possible, a purchase may not be what Apple wants.

My guess is that Apple will build their own cloud platform, and will make it different from the existing cloud platforms. Apple will need some way to distinguish their cloud platform and make it appealing to app developers.

Perhaps Apple will focus on security, and build a self-contained cloud platform, one that offers services to Apple devices but not others, and one that is isolated from other cloud platforms and services. An "Apple only" cloud platform with no connection to the outside world would allow Apple to ensure the security of customer data -- with no connection to the outside world, data would have no way to escape or be extracted.

Apple may go so far as to mandate the use of their cloud platform, prohibiting apps from communicating with other cloud platforms. iPhone apps and Macbook applications could use Apple's cloud, but not AWS or Azure. This would be a significant restriction, but would guarantee revenue to Apple.

(Assuming that Apple charges for cloud services, which seems a reasonable assumption. Exactly how to charge for cloud services is a challenge, and may be the only thing preventing Apple from offering cloud services today.)

The outcome of the dispute between Apple and Epic may foreshadow such a strategy. If Apple prevails, they may go on to create a locked cloud platform, one that does not allow competition but does ensure security of data. (Or perhaps a milder strategy of offering the Apple cloud, but only on the condition that the Apple cloud is the only cloud used by an app. Classic apps that use other clouds may continue to run, but they could use Apple cloud. Moving any services to the Apple cloud would mean moving all services to the Apple cloud.)

I don't know how things will play out. I don't know what discussions are being held in Apple's headquarters. These ideas seem reasonable to me, so they may come to pass. Of course, Apple has surprised us in the past, and they may surprise us again!