For the future of Java, look to Google

What is the future of Java? It is a popular language, perhaps a bit long in the tooth, yet still capable. It struggled under Sun. Now it is the property of Oracle.

Oracle is an interesting company, with a number of challenges. Its biggest challenge is the new database technologies that provide alternatives to SQL. Oracle built its fortune on the classic, ACID-based, SQL database, competing with IBM and Microsoft.

Now facing competition not only in the form of other companies but in new technologies, Oracle must perform. How will is use Java?

For the future of Java, I suggest that we look to Google and Android. Java is part of Android -- or at least the Java bytecode. Android apps are written in Java on standard PCs, compiled into Java bytecode, and then delivered to Android devices. The Android devices (phones, tablets, what-have-you) use not the standard JVM interpreter but a custom-made one named "Dalvik".

Oracle and Google have their differences. Oracle sued Google, successfully, for using the Java APIs. (A decision with which I disagree, but that is immaterial.)

Google now faces a decision: stay with Java or move to something else. Staying with Java will most likely paying Oracle a licensing fee. (Given Oracle's business practices, probably an exorbitant licensing fee.)

Moving to a different platform is equally expensive. Google will have to select a new language and make tools for developers. They will also have to assist developers with existing applications, allowing them to migrate to the new platform.

Exactly which platform Google picks isn't critical. Possibly Python; Google supports it in their App Engine. Another candidate is Google Go, which Google also supports in App Engine. (The latter would be a little more complicated, as Go compiles to executables and not bytecode, and I'm not sure that all Android devices have the same processor.)

Google's decision affects more that just Google and Android. It affects the entire market for Java. The two big segments for Java are server applications and Android applications. (Java as a teaching language is probably the third.) If Google were to move Android to another language, a full third of the Java market would disappear.

If you have a large investment in Java applications (or are considering building new Java applications), you may want to keep an eye on Google and Android.