Sunday, June 28, 2015

Arrogance from Microsoft, and from Apple

Microsoft's design for Windows 8 has gotten a bit of pushback from its users. One notion I have heard (from multiple sources) is that Microsoft was 'arrogant' in their assumptions about the features users want.

It's true that Microsoft did not consult with all of their users when they designed Windows 8. (They certainly did not ask my opinion.) Is this behavior arrogant? Perhaps.

I cannot help but compare Microsoft's behavior to Apple's, and find that they operate in similar styles. Apple has changed the user interface for its operating systems, without consulting users. Yet I hear few complaints about Apple's arrogance.

Why such a difference in response from users?

Some might say that Apple's changes were "good", while Microsoft's changes were "bad". I don't see it that way. Apple made changes, and Apple users accepted them. Microsoft made changes, and many Microsoft users rejected them. Assuming that the changes were neither good nor bad, how to explain the difference?

I have a theory. It has to do with the populations of users.

Apple has a dedicated user base. People choose to use Apple equipment, and it is a conscious choice. (Some might say a rebellious choice.) Apple is not the mainstream equipment for office or home use, and one does not accidentally purchase an Apple product. If you are using Apple equipment, it is because you want to use it. You are, to some degree, a fan of Apple.

Microsoft has a different user base. Their users consist of two groups: people who want to use Microsoft equipment and people who use it because they have to. The former, I suspect, is rather small -- perhaps the size of the Apple fan group. The latter group consists of those people who use Microsoft software not because they want to, but because they have to. Perhaps they work in an office that has standardized on Microsoft Windows. Perhaps they purchases a PC and Windows came with it. Perhaps they use it because all of their family uses it. Regardless of the reason, they use Windows (and other Microsoft products) not out of choice.

People who choose to use Apple equipment have a favorable opinion of Apple. (Why else would they choose that equipment?) When Apple introduces a change, the Apple fans are more accepting of the change. They trust Apple.

The same can be said for the Microsoft fans.

The non-fans, the people who use Microsoft software through no choice of their own, are not in that situation. They tolerate Microsoft software. They do not (necessarily) trust Microsoft. But when changes are introduced, they are less accepting.

The Microsoft user base, as a result of Microsoft's market dominance, has a lot of non-volunteers. The Apple user base is much smaller and is almost entirely volunteers.

The demographics of Microsoft and Apple user bases are changing. Apple is gaining market share; Microsoft is losing. (The numbers are complicated, due to the expanding role of mobile and cloud technologies.) If these trends continue, Apple may find that its user base has a higher percentage of "conscripts" than in the past, and that they may be less than happy with changes. Microsoft is in the opposite position: as people shift from Microsoft to other platforms, the percentage of "conscripts" will decline, meaning that the percentage of fans will increase. Microsoft may see a smaller market share with more loyal and trusting customers.

These changes are small, and will occur over time. Significant changes will take years, possibly decades. But they will also occur slowly, and Microsoft and Apple may be caught by surprise. For Microsoft, it may be a pleasant surprise. Apple may find that their customer base, after many years of loyal following, starts becoming grumpy.

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