The software market for mobile is not the software market for desktop

With mainframes, software was expensive. Not, "expensive like an MSDN subscription" expensive, but *really* expensive. When not bundled with the hardware (an early IBM business model), it often cost as much as the hardware. Often, the license included a "maintenance contract" which saw annual payments in addition to the initial "licensing" payment.

With PCs, software was less expensive. Some high-end expensive software for PCs does include a maintenance contract, but for the most part, the only fee is the initial payment, and that payment is a fraction of the cost of the hardware. Early PCs cost $5000 (in 1980 dollars) and the popular software packages (Lotus 1-2-3, Wordstar, dBase III) went for several hundred dollars. Today, PCs cost about $1000 (perhaps less) and popular software packages cost $200-300.

The change from mainframe to PC was a large one. Some companies attempted it, and few succeeded. The well-established companies in the mainframe space did not know how to approach a market with many more purchasers of software that sold for fewer (lots fewer) dollars. Their inability (and lack of desire) let "upstarts" like Microsoft into the market. The result was a dynamic market with many new companies and many new ideas.

Now we have mobile devices that sell for even less than PCs. The one well-established companies in the PC software space (Microsoft, Adobe, Intuit, Symantec) are struggling to cope with the mobile market -- or showing no interest in it. Apple's lead has defined a lower level for software prices and new rules for licensing. Software sells for a few dollars, not hundreds. Software can run on any of your registered devices, not just the activated device.

Microsoft's Windows 8 is an attempt to combine the desktop PC and the tablet PC. I think that this is a mistake.

Don't get me wrong -- I like Windows RT and the live-tile interface. (I think it needs some tuning, but nothing major.) The new user interface is suitable for tablets and phones, as is the pricing of software in the Microsoft App Store.

But the change in pricing is a large one, too large for the desktop market. Yes, desktop users want cheap software, but they also want documentation and support which are not part of the mobile world. This is why people keep buying Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office instead of Linux and LibreOffice.

I think the mobile market will stay separate from the desktop market. The divide between these two worlds of computing is large. Some packages may span that gap, but most will stay on one side.

I expect that the expensive software will stay on PCs, and people will continue to use it (and buy new copies). Perhaps not as many as in the past, as some mobile software will meet the needs of people. (E-mail, for example, can be handled on a tablet or phone.) I also expect that PC software will stay expensive.

I also expect that the mobile market will continue to see low prices for apps. The business model has been established, and it works.

But perhaps not for the current set of PC software vendors.