Mobile/cloud apps will be different than PC apps

As a participant in the PC revolution, I was comfortable with the bright future of personal computers. I *knew* -- that is, I strongly believed -- that PCs were superior to mainframes.

It turned out that PCs were *different* from mainframes, but not necessarily superior.

Mainframe programs were, primarily, accounting systems. Oh, there were programs to compute ballistics tables, and programs for engineering and astronomy, and system utilities, but the big use of mainframe computers was accounting (general ledger, inventory, billing, payment processing, payables, receivables, and market forecasts). These uses were shaped by the entities that could afford mainframe computers (large corporations and governments) and the data that was most important to those organizations.

But the data was also shaped by technology. Computers read input on punch cards and stored data on magnetic tape. The batch processing systems were useful for certain types of processing and made efficient use of transactions and master files. Even when terminals were invented, the processing remained in batch mode.

Personal computers were more interactive than mainframes. They started with terminals and interactive applications. From the beginning, personal computers were used for tasks very different than the tasks of mainframe computers. The biggest applications for PCs were word processors and spreadsheets. (They still are today.)

Some "traditional" computer applications were ported to personal computers. There were (and still are) systems for accounting and database management. There were utility programs and programming languages: BASIC, FORTRAN, COBOL, and later C and Pascal. But the biggest applications were the interactive ones, the ones that broke from the batch processing mold of mainframe computing.

(I am simplifying greatly here. There were interactive programs for mainframes. The BASIC language was designed as an interactive environment for programming, on mainframe computers.)

I cannot help but think that the typical mainframe programmer, looking at the new personal computers that appeared in the late 1970s, could only puzzle at what possible advantage they could offer. Personal computers were smaller, slower, and less capable than mainframes in every degree. Processors were slower and less capable. Memory was smaller. Storage was laughably primitive. PC software was also primitive, with nothing approaching the sophistication of mainframe operating systems, database management systems, or utilities.

The only ways in which personal computers were superior to mainframes were the BASIC language (Microsoft BASIC was more powerful than mainframe BASIC), word processors, and spreadsheets. Notice that these are all interactive programs. The cost and size of a personal computer made it possible for a person to own one, but the interactive nature of applications made it sensible for a person to own one.

That single attribute of interactive applications made the PC revolution possible. The success of modern-day PCs and the Microsoft empire was built on interactive applications.

I suspect that the success of cell phones and tablets will be built on a single attribute. But what that attribute is, I do not know. It may be portability. It may be location-aware capabilities. It may be a different level of interactivity.

I *know* -- that is, I feel very strongly -- that mobile/cloud is going to have a brilliant future.

I also feel that the key applications for mobile/cloud will be different from traditional PC applications, just as PC applications are different from mainframe applications. Any attempt to port PC applications to mobile/cloud will be doomed to failure, just as mainframe applications failed to port to PCs.

Mainframe applications live on, in their batch mode glory, to this day. Large companies and governments need accounting systems, and will continue to need them. PC applications will live through the mobile/cloud revolution, although some may fade; PowerPoint-style presentations may be better served on synchronized mobile devices than with a single PC and a projector.

Expect mobile/cloud apps to surprise us. They will not be word processors and spreadsheets. (Nor will they be accounting systems.) They will be more like Twitter and Facebook, with status updates and connections to our network of people.