Windows blues

Windows "Blue" is the new version of Windows, and it is disruptive.

I expect Windows "Blue" to integrate with Microsoft's cloud services. This is an easy prediction: the industry moving to cloud services, and Microsoft will move with the industry as they have in the past. Also, Microsoft brands its cloud services with the name "Azure". (Get it? "Blue" and "Azure"?)

The more disruptive aspect of Windows Blue is the release schedule. Microsoft will be releasing this version of Windows one year after Windows 8. In doing so, Microsoft increases the frequency of Windows releases and matches Apple and Linux distributions. (The Ubuntu Linux folks release two versions each year!)

It may be that this is a fluke, a one-time occurrence of back-to-back releases of Windows. But it's more fun to assume that this is the new pace for Windows. What does such a change mean?

For starters, the Microsoft teams must be prepared to select features, implement them, test them, and prepare a release (including marketing, advertising, and fulfillment) on a much shorter schedule than before. A faster release schedule forces Microsoft to limit the new features of a release, which in turn means smaller changes from release to release. (Smaller "jumps" in features may be good for the users of Windows, giving them smaller "shocks" from one version to another.)

A faster release cycle lets Microsoft track changes in hardware. Microsoft can add new features (voice recognition, handwriting recognition, support for tablets, support for wireless tech) without resorting to the service packs and developer kits of the past. Keeping up with hardware lets Microsoft compete with Apple and Linux.

More frequent releases also lets Microsoft track changes in software. They can include later versions of browsers in their operating systems, and assume that people who install other browsers will install the latest version. The days of an "IE 6 browser" (outdated but popular from sheer inertia) may be over.

Consumers will probably change their view of PCs and computing devices (tablets, phones) and consider them more like small appliances and less like major purchases. They may be willing to upgrade their equipment every two years, as they do with cell phones.

Corporations and government agencies may dislike the increased frequency of releases. Larger organizations tend to avoid upgrades, trying to get the maximum life out of devices. I suspect that corporations prefer computing equipment to be like water or electricity: present all of the time and never changing. What these long-term users want is computing services, not computing equipment. Cloud computing should appeal to them. Fast releases of Windows (and browsers, and development IDEs) will not. (But where can they go? Microsoft, Apple, and Linux are all playing this game.)

Windows "Blue" will be a step forward in Microsoft's strategy. It may not be the step that everyone wants, and it may cause a few people some discomfort. We can complain, we can cling to old versions, or we can acknowledge the change and prepare for it.