Mobile/cloud needs a compelling application

There has been a lot of talk about cloud computing (or as I call it, mobile/cloud) but perhaps not so much in the way of understanding. While some people understand what mobile/cloud is, they don't understand how to use it. They don't know how to leverage it. And I think that this is part of the adoption of mobile/cloud, or any new technology.

Let's look back at personal computers, and how they were adopted.

When PCs first appeared, companies did not know what to make of them. Hobbyists and enthusiastic individuals had been tinkering with them for a few years, but companies -- that is, the bureaucratic entity of policies and procedures -- had no specific use for them. An economist might say that there was no demand for them.

Companies used PCs as replacements for typewriters, or as replacements for office word processing systems. They were minor upgrades to existing technologies.

Once business-folk saw Visicalc and Lotus 1-2-3, however, things changed. The spreadsheet enabled people to analyze data and make better decisions. (And without a request to the DP department!) Businesses now viewed PCs as a way to improve productivity. This increased demand, because what business doesn't want to improve productivity?

But it took that first "a-ha" moment, that first insight into the new technology's capabilities. Someone had to invent a compelling application, and then others could think "Oh, that is what they can do!" The compelling application shows off the capabilities of the new technology in terms that the business can understand.

With mobile/cloud technology, we are still in the "what can it do" stage. We have yet to meet the compelling application. Mobile/cloud technology has been profitable for the providers (such as Amazon.com) but not for the users (companies such as banks, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturers). Most 'average' companies (non-technology companies) are still looking at this mobile/cloud thing and asking themselves "how can we leverage it?".

It is a good question to ask. We will keep asking it until someone invents the compelling application.

I don't know the nature of the compelling application for mobile/cloud. It could be a better form of e-mail/calendar software. It might be analysis of internal operations. It could be a new type of customer relationship management system.

I don't know for certain that there will be a compelling application. If there is, then mobile/cloud will "take off", with demand for mobile/cloud apps and conversion of existing apps to mobile/cloud. If there is no compelling application, then mobile/cloud won't necessarily die, but will fade into the background (like virtualization is doing now).

I expect that there will be a compelling application, and that mobile/cloud will be popular. I expect our understanding of mobile/cloud to follow the path of previous new technologies: awareness, understanding, application to business, and finally acceptance as the norm.