Linux in the post-PC world

The advent of tablets and mobile computing devices has generated much discussion. The post-PC world offers convenience and reliability, and a stirring of the marketplace that could re-arrange the major players.

One topic that I have not seen is the viability of Linux. Can Linux survive in the post-PC world?

The PC world was defined by hardware. The "IBM PC standard" was set in 1981, with the introduction of the IBM PC.

The post-PC world is also defined by devices. It is a world in which the primary (and possibly only) devices we use (directly) are not PCs but tablets and smartphones (and possibly a few other devices).

What does this have to do with Linux?

Linux was -- and is -- a parasite in the PC world. It runs on PCs, and we can run it on PCs for two reasons. First, Linux is written to be compatible with the PC standard. Second, the PC standard is open and we can run anything on it. (That is, we can boot any operating system.)

The tablet world is different. Apple's iPads and Microsoft's Surface tablets are locked down: they run only approved software. An iPad will boot only iOS and a Microsoft Surface tablet will boot only a signed operating system. (It doesn't have to be Windows, but it does have to be signed with a specific key.) The lock-down is not limited to iPads and Surface tablets; Amazon.com Kindles and Barnes and Noble Nooks have the same restrictions.

This lock-down in the tablet world means that we are limited in our choice of operating systems. We cannot boot anything that we want; we can boot only the approved operating systems.

(I know that one can jail-break devices. One can put a "real" Linux on a Kindle or a Nook. IPads can be broken. I suspect that Surface tablets will be broken, too. But it takes extra effort, voids your warrantee, and casts doubt over any future problem. (Is the problem caused by jail-breaking?) I suspect few people will jail-break their devices.

Linux was able to thrive because it was easy to install. In the post-PC world, it will not be easy to install Linux.

I suspect that the future of Linux will lie in the server room. Servers are quite different from consumer PCs and the consumer-oriented tablets. Servers are attended by system administrators, and they expect (and want) fine-grained control over devices. Linux meets their needs. Consumers want devices that "just work", so they choose the easy-to-use devices and that creates market pressure for iPads and Surfaces. System administrators want control, and that creates market pressure for Linux.