The default solution

For decades, mainframes were the default solution to computing problems. When you needed something done, you did it on a mainframe, unless you had a compelling reason for a different platform.

For decades, IBM called the shots in the computer industry. The popularity of IBM hardware gave IBM the ability to strongly influence (some might say dictate) hardware and software standards. That power diminished with the rise of personal computers (ironically helped by the IBM PC). IBM ceded the control of software to Microsoft, first with DOS and later with Windows.

For decades, PCs were the default solution to computing problems. When you needed something done, you did it on a PC, unless you had a compelling reason for a different platform.

For decades, Microsoft called the shots. The popularity of Windows and Office gave Microsoft the ability to strongly influence (some might say dictate) hardware and software standards. That power diminished with the rise of hand-held computers (specifically iPods and iPhones). Microsoft ceded the market to Apple, after several failed attempts at moving Windows to hand-sized devices.

Now, smartphones and tablets are the default solution to computing problems. When you need something done, you do it on a smartphone or tablet, unless you have a compelling reason for a different platform.

The popular platforms are the default solutions, and the company with the dominant platform can set the standards and the direction of the technology. Notice that it is the popular platform that defines the default solution, not the most cost-effective or the most reliable. The default solution is defined by the market, specifically what customers are buying. It is not a democracy, but neither is it an inherited rank. A company has a leadership role because the market gives that company the role.

And the market can take away that role.

The change in the market from mainframe to PC was an expansion, not a revolution.

The events that unseated IBM were not market revolutions, in which one competitor replaced another. IBM the mainframe manufacturer was not ousted by another mainframe manufacturer.They defended themselves against competitors, but failed to expand to new markets.

The PC revolution expanded the market. (It may have killed dedicated word processing systems, but overall it expanded the market.) The new market of word processing software, spreadsheets, and even primitive databases was something that IBM did not pursue with mainframes. It is possible that IBM was unable to pursue that market, as the PCs were small, inexpensive, and purchased by people who did not have a squadron of lawyers to review purchase and support contracts.

The market expanded but mainframes stayed constant, and that allowed PCs to become the default solution.

We have a similar situation with PCs and tablets.

The smartphone revolution (along with tablets) is expanding the market. The new market of location-aware apps, easy-to-install apps, and touchscreen interfaces is a market that Microsoft is only now beginning to pursue with Windows 8 and the Metro UI, and this effort is by no means guaranteed. (Many long-time supporters of Microsoft are grumbling at Windows 8.)

The market is expanding and PCs are mostly staying constant. That allows smartphones to become the default solution.

But PCs are not simply sitting still. PCs, and more specifically, PC operating systems, are adapting the ideas of the smartphone market. Microsoft's Windows 8 is the most prominent example of this effect, with its new GUI and the new Microsoft Windows App Store. Apple's "Lion" release of OSX bring it closer to smartphone operating systems. Some Linux distributions are morphing their user interfaces to something closer to smartphones and are simplifying their package managers.

In the end, I think PCs will have a limited role. Data centers have never been fond of the tower-style units, preferring rack-mounted servers and now preferring virtual PCs running on mainframes, of all things! Home users will find that smartphones and tablets less expensive, easier to use, and good enough to get the job done. Corporate users are the last bastion of PCs, and even they are looking at smartphones and tablets in the "Bring Your Own Device" movement.

PCs won't die out. Some tasks are handled by PCs better than on tablets. (Just as some tasks are handled by mainframes better than PCs, even today.) Some people will keep them because they are "tried and true" solutions, others will be unwilling to move to different platforms. Hobbyists will keep them out of nostalgia.

But they won't be the default solution.