I was comparing the iPad to e-readers, specifically the Kindle and the Nook. And for reading, I think that the Kindle and other e-readers are superior to the iPad.
But as a general computation device, the iPad (or tablets in general) are superior not only to e-readers but also to traditional desktop PCs and laptop PCs. Significantly superior. Superior enough to cause a change in the ideas about computing hardware.
The iPad and tablets (and iPods and cell phones) use touchscreens, something that traditional computers have avoided. The touchscreen experience is very different from the screen-and-mouse experience. The touchscreen experience is more intimate and more immediate; the mouse experience is clunky. Why should I have to drag the mouse pointer all the way over to a scroll bar when I can simply reach out the drag the screen?
Apple has, once again, defined the modern computing interface. Apple defined the "mouse" UI with the Lisa and then the Macintosh computers, stealing a bunch of ideas from Xerox (who in turn had lifted them from Doug Englebart).
The mouse interface was introduced in 1983, and it took a while to become popular. Once it became the standard, it was *the* standard way to interact with computers. The introduction of the iPhone/iPod/iPad interface set a new standard, one that is being adopted quickly. Apple is moving the interface to the newest version of OSX (the "Lion" release) and Microsoft is doing the same thing with its "Metro" interface for Windows 8.
The new interface expects a touchscreen. While some folks may try to fudge the interface with a plain display and a mouse, I believe that we will see a fairly rapid conversion to touchscreens.
Converting the hardware is the smaller of the two problems. The bigger problem is the software. Our current software is designed for the mouse interface, not the touch interface. Apple and Microsoft may craft solutions that let older (soon to be derided as legacy) apps to run in the new environment, but there will be some apps that fail to make the transition.
The conversion of software will also give new players an opportunity to take market share. We may see Microsoft lose its dominant position with Office.
I expect two, parallel tracks of acceptance: the home user and the business user. Home users will adopt the new UI quickly -- they have already done so on their cell phones, so changing the operating system to look like a cell phone is probably viewed as an improvement.
Business users, on the other hand, will face a number of challenges. First will be the cost of upgrading equipment with touchscreens. Related to that will be the training issues (probably minimal) and the politics associated with the distribution of the new equipment. If a company must roll out new equipment in phases (perhaps over several years) there will be squabblings over the selection of employees to get the new hardware.
Businesses also have to integrate the new hardware and software into their organization. New hardware can be adopted quickly; new software takes longer. The support teams must learn the software and the methods for resolving problems. The new software must be configured to confirm to existing standards for security, disaster recovery, and data retention. New versions of apps must be acquired and rolled out -- but only to folks with the new equipment.
The fate of developers is hard to predict. The new user interfaces have proven themselves in the consumer space. I suspect that they can work in the business space. I'm unsure of their soundness for developers. Our programming environments, tools, and even languages are designed for keyboards, not swipes on a screen. What kinds of computers will programmers use?
One possibility is that developers will use tradition-style PCs, with tradition keyboards and traditional operating systems. But this will put PCs into a niche market (developers only) and drive the prices up. Developers have for a long time been riding on the wave of popular (low-priced commodity) equipment; I'm not sure how they will adapt to a premium market.
Another possibility, albeit small, is that developers will develop new languages that fit into the new user experience. This is not precedented: BASIC was designed to fit into timesharing systems and Visual Basic was designed for programming in Windows.
Either way, it will be interesting.
1 comment:
What do you say, will be the substitution for 'writing' texts?
If we leave the old mouse 'n' keyboard interface, we have to replace it both. Mouse is been replaced by finger touch. But what about the keyboard? Thinking about this not only as a programmer, but also as a blogger. Writing long texts at iPad's touch keyboard is pain in the arse.
What could it be? Voice entry? I think about this whenever I use an iPad.
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