The end of phone calls?

Is it possible that we are seeing the end of phone calls? The notion is hard to accept. Many companies, government organizations, and individuals run on phone calls.

Here's what I see:

Voice calls are a generational thing The "younger generation" (anyone under 30) uses cell phones, and uses cell phones a lot. But most of the use is text messages. Followed by taking (or sharing) pictures. Followed by surfing the web. Voice calls are way down on the list of uses. Folks over 30 make voice calls; folks under 30 send text messages.

Organizations use voice calls within the organization They use e-mail and some voice for conversations outside of the organization. Organizations use e-mail for communicating with people in other time zones.

Voice calling is cheap The typical phone plan offers some number of free minutes (300, 550, 700... the plans vary) but most folks use only a fraction of their free minutes. In the early days of cell phones, users and vendors worried about minutes of usage (it was all voice calls back then). Today we have enough minutes in the plan. We don't worry about minutes. Voice calls, essentially, are "free", which means that there is little demand for them.

Vendors are focussing on data, not voice The big debates are now about data caps and throttling. Voice minutes and coverage are not part of the debate.

Voicemail makes voice calls asynchronous A traditional voice call is synchronous: both parties must be present and participating at the same time. With voicemail, one party can leave a message and the second party can respond at a later (more convenient) time. Voicemail converts phone calls to the time context of e-mail.

Voicemail as a tactic Companies have been using voicemail for decades, as have individuals. Individuals are now using voicemail tactically, allowing calls to "roll over" to voicemail even though they could answer the phone. I myself let my home (wireline) phone go to voicemail all of the time; family and friends know to call me on my cell phone, so a call to the home phone means someone other than family and friends.

But not everyone is abandoning phone calls. Here are the people and organizations who are still using voice calls:

Political campaigns Every few years, the polit-callers make their cases.

Advertisers Despite being on the "do not call" list, some companies call -- and some leave messages.

Recruiters Some send e-mails, and some call. Even after I gently nudge them towards e-mail, the ones who call continue to use voice calls. This may be a extrovert behavior, where folks prefer talking over written communication.

I generally find that I do not want to answer the phone. Odds are that the call will be an annoyance.

I also find that I have little reason to call a person. I will call a company for a specific reason (to activate a credit card, perhaps) but I make few phone calls to friends. Calls to family are often to the older folks who are reluctant to use text messages.

I think that the lesson here is: all good things come to an end, and when a technology becomes free, it is close to its demise.