Rugged individualism

What will hardware and software look like in the future? I don't know for certain, but I can make a few guesses. Let's look at the past:

The common wisdom for the evolution of hardware runs this way: from the early tabulators we built large computers (which were later named "mainframes"), then we learned to make minicomputers, then in 1976 we introduced the pre-PC microcomputers, followed by the IBM PC, workstations, servers, and finally the iPhone group. It's not completely accurate, but it's pretty good.

Common wisdom for the evolution of software runs along similar lines: from the early days of direct programming in machine language, we moved to monitors (operating systems) and the early compilers (FORTRAN and COBOL), batch processing, time-share systems and interactive processing (UNIX), virtual machines, a reversion to direct programming with the early microcomputers followed by "real" operating systems for PCs (Windows NT), client-server systems, web applications, and a re-invention of virtual computers, leading to today's modern world of smartphone apps and cloud computing.

Aside from the obvious trend of smaller yet more powerful hardware, we can see that advances in computing -- especially in software -- have favored the user. Starting with microcomputers in 1976, advances in technology have provided advantage to individual users. Such trends are clear in the iPhone and kin.

Advances in hardware have favored the individual, and so have software. Not only are iPhones made for individuals, but the software is tailored to individuals. iPhones do not plug in to the enterprise-level control systems (such as Windows Exchange servers). They remain controlled by the user, who selects the software (apps) to install and run.

The BlackBerry devices do plug in to the corporate systems, and while lots of people have them, the vast majority of people don't pay for them -- their employer does. BlackBerry phones are not the choice of individuals, they are the choice of IT managers.

I expect the trend toward the individual to continue. I expect that new cloud-based apps will be designed for individuals (Facebook, anyone) and not for corporations. The corporate applications (general ledger, billing, personnel, and markting) all fit in the mainframe world (with a possible web front-end). It is the individuals who will drive new tech.

Areas to look for improvements: pervasive computing (in which small computers are everywhere), automatic authentication (eliminating the need for passwords), and collaboration. The last is an interesting one, since it applies not to the individual but to a group. Yet it won't be the formal, structured group of the corporation; it will be a group of like-minded individuals with specific common goals.