Moving fast and going far are not the same thing

There is an old saying: If you want to go fast, go alone; if you want to go far, go in a group.

One significant difference between Apple and Microsoft is that Apple manages product lines and Microsoft manages an ecosystem. This difference is significant. Apple is, essentially, moving alone. It can (now) design its own hardware and software. Apple does still need raw materials, fabrication for its chips, manufacture of its cases and boxes, and assembly of components into finished goods. But Apple deals with two types of entities: suppliers (the companies that supply raw materials, chips, etc.) and customers (the people and companies that purchase computers and services).

Microsoft, in contrast, lives in an ecosystem that includes suppliers, PC manufacturers, developers, and customers (both individual and organizational). While Microsoft does design its Surface tablets and laptops, those tablets and laptops are a small part of the larger market. The laptops and desktops made by Dell, Lenovo, HP, and others are a large portion of the market.

Apple can move quickly, changing its processors from Intel to Apple-designed ARM in less than two years. Microsoft, on the other hand, must move more cautiously. It cannot dictate that Windows will shift from Intel to ARM because Microsoft does not control the manufacturers of PCs.

If Microsoft wants to shift personal computers from the current designs of discrete components to system-on-chip designs (and I believe that they do) then Microsoft must persuade the rest of the ecosystem to move in that direction. Such persuasion is not easy -- PC makers have lots invested in the current designs, and are familiar with gradual changes to improve PCs. For the past three decades, Microsoft has guided PC design through specifications that allow PCs to run Windows, and those specification have changed gradually: faster processors here, faster buss connections there, faster memory at some times, better interfaces to graphics displays at other times. The evolution of personal computers has been a slow, predictable process, with changes that can be absorbed into the manufacturing processes of the PC makers.

The Microsoft "empire" of PC design has been, for all intents and purposes, successful. For thirty years we have benefitted from computers in the office and in the home, and those computers have (for the most part) been usable and reliable.

Apple benefitted from that PC design too. The Intel-based Mac and MacBook computers were designed in the gravity field of Windows. Those Mac computers were Windows PCs, capable of running Windows (and Linux) because they used the same processors, video chips, and buss interfaces as Windows PCs. They had to use those chips; custom chips would be too expensive and risky to make.

Apple has now left that empire. It is free of the "center of gravity" that Windows provides in the market. Apple can now design its own processor, its own video chips, its own memory, its own storage. Apple is free! Free to move in any direction it likes, free to design any computer it wants.

I predict that Apple computers will move in their own direction, away from the standard design for Windows PCs. Each new generation of Apple computers will be less and less "Windows compatible". It will be harder and harder to run Windows (or Linux) on Apple hardware.

Microsoft has a new challenge now. They must answer Apple's latest M1 (and M2) system-on-chip designs. But they cannot upend the ecosystem. Nor can they abandon Intel and shift everything to ARM designs. Apple has leveraged its experience with its 'A' series chips in phones to build the 'M' series chips for computers. Microsoft doesn't have that experience, but it has something Apple doesn't: an ecosystem.

I predict that Microsoft will form alliances with other companies to build system-on-chip designs. Probably with IBM, to leverage virtual machine technology (and patents) and possibly Intel to leverage chip fabrication. (Intel recently announced that it was open to sharing its fabrication plants for non-Intel designs.)

[I hold stock in both Microsoft and IBM. That probably biases my view.]

Microsoft needs to build experience with system-on-chip designs, and alliances can provide that experience. But alliances require time, so I'm not expecting an announcement from Microsoft right away. The first system-on-chip designs may be tablets and simple laptops, possibly competing with Chromebooks. Those first simple laptops may take two years of negotiation, experimentation, design, assembly, and testing before anything is ready for market. (And even then, they may have a few problems.)

I think Microsoft can achieve the goal of system-on-chip designs. I think that they will do it with the combined effort of multiple companies. I think it will take time, and the very first products may be disappointing. But in the long run, I think Microsoft can succeed.

If you want to move fast, go alone; if you want to go far, go in a group.

Everyone who is not Apple

Apple has direct control over the design of their hardware and software, a situation that has not been seen in the history of personal computers. I expect that they will enjoy success -- at least for a while -- with new, powerful designs.

But what about everyone else? What about Microsoft, the maker of Windows, Office, Azure services, Surface tablets and laptops, and other things? What about Dell and Lenovo and Toshiba and HP, the makers of personal computers? What Google, the maker of Chromebooks and cloud services?

That's a big question, and it has a number of answers.

Microsoft has a number of paths forward, and will probably pursue several of them. For its Surface devices, it can design systems on a chip that correspond to Apple's M1 chips. Microsoft could use ARM CPUs; it has already ported Windows to ARM and offers the "Surface X" with ARM. Microsoft could design a system-on-a-chip that uses Intel CPUs; such would provide binary compatibility with current Windows applications. Intel chips generate more heat, but Microsoft has success with Intel chips in most of its Surface line, so a system-on-a-chip with Intel could be possible. These paths mirror the path that Apple has taken.

Microsoft, unlike Apple, has another possible way forward: cloud services. Microsoft could design efficient processors for the computers that run data centers, the computers that host virtual instances of Windows and Linux. Such a move would ease the shift of processing from laptops and desktop computers and the cloud. (Such a shift is possible today; system-on-chip designs make it more efficient.) Microsoft may work with Intel, or AMD, or even IBM to design and build efficient hardware for cloud data centers.

Manufacturers of personal computers may design their own system-on-chip answers to the M1 processor. Or they may form a consortium and design a common chip that can be used by all (still allowing for custom system-on-chip designs and the current discrete component designs). Microsoft has, for a long time, provided a reference document for the requirements of Windows, and system-on-chip designs would follow that set of requirements just as laptops and desktops today follow those requirements.

PC manufacturers do lose some control when they adopt a common design. A common design would be common, and available to all manufacturers. It prevents a manufacturer from enhancing the design by selecting better components. Rather than shift their entire product line to system-on-chip design, manufacturers will probably use the system-on-chip design for only some of the offerings, keeping some products with discrete designs (and enhancements to distinguish them from the competition).

Google does not have to follow the requirements for Windows; it has its own requirements for Chromebooks. System-on-chip design is a good fit for Chromebooks, which already use both Intel and ARM chips (and few users can see the difference). The performance improvement of system-on-chip design fits in nicely with Google's plan for games on Chromebooks. The increase in power allows for an increase in the sophistication of web-based apps.

I am willing to wait for Microsoft's response and for Google's response. I think we will see innovative designs and improvements to the computing experience. I expect Microsoft to push in two directions: system-on-chip designs for their Surface tablets, and cloud-based applications running on enhanced hardware. Google will follow a similar strategy, enhancing cloud hardware and improving the capabilities of Chromebooks.

System-on-chips for everyone!

Apple has demonstrated that the system-on-chip design (seen in their new MacBooks, iMacs, and Mac Minis) is popular.

What does system-on-chip design mean for other forms of computing? Will other manufacturers adopt that design?

An obvious market for system-on-chip design is Chromebooks. (If they are not using it already.) Many Chromebooks already use ARM processors (others use Intel) and moving the ARM-based Chromebooks to ARM-based system-on-chip design is fairly straightforward. Chromebooks also have a narrow design specification, controlled by Google, which makes a system-on-chip design feasible. Google limits the variation of Chromebooks, so it may be that the entire Chromebook market could be served with three (or possibly four) distinct designs.

Chromebooks would benefit from system-on-chip designs in two ways: lower cost and higher performance. One may think performance is unimportant to Chromebooks because Chromebooks are merely hosts for the Chrome browser, but that is not true. The Chrome browser (indeed, any modern browser) must do a lot, from rendering HTML to running JavaScript to playing audio and video. They must also handle keystrokes and focus, tasks normally associated with an operating systems's window manager. In addition, browsers must now execute web-assembly (WASM) for some applications. Browsers are complex critters.

Google also has their eyes on games, and improved performance will allow more Chromebooks to run advanced games.

I think we can safely assume that Chromebooks will move to system-on-chip designs.

What about Windows PCs? Will they change to system-on-chip designs? Here I think the answer is not so obvious.

Microsoft sets hardware specifications for Windows. If you want to build a PC that runs Windows, you have to conform to those specifications. It is quite possible that Microsoft will design their own system-on-chip for PCs and use them in Microsoft's own Surface tablets and laptops. It is possible that they will make the design available to other manufacturers (Dell, Lenovo, etc.). Such a move would make it easier to build PCs that conform to Microsoft's specifications.

A system-on-chip design would possibly split designs for PCs into two groups: system-on-chip in one group and traditional discrete components in the other. System-on-chip designs work poorly with expansion slots, so PCs that use such a design would probably have no expansion slots -- not even one for a GPU. But many folks want GPUs, so they will prefer traditional designs. We may see a split market for Windows PCs, with customizable PCs using discrete components and non-upgradable PCs (similar to Chromebooks and Macbooks) using system-on-chip designs.

Such a split has already occurred in the Windows PC market. Laptop PCs tend to have limited options for upgrades (if any). Small desktop PCs also have limited options. Large desktops are the computers that still have expansion slots; these are the computers that let the owner replace components such as RAM and storage.

I think system-on-chip designs are the way of the future for most of our computers (laptops, desktops, phones, etc.). I think we'll see better performance, lower cost, and improved reliability. It's a move in a good direction.