Micron Technology, a large manufacturer of memory DIMMs for PCs, recently announced that it was exiting that business and is redirecting its efforts to memory components for AI server farms.
I think the impact of this announcement is not fully understood.
This change by Micron Technology indicates a larger shift in the industry: away from PCs and towards AI. Away from consumer PCs (desktops and laptops), and also office PCs. The PC, the king of the tech world for decades, has lost its crown.
The IBM PC, announced in 1981, legitimized the then-sputtering tech market for PCs. Before the IBM PC (and for some time after its introduction), PC makers such as Apple, Commodore, and Radio Shack all had to cobble their products together from components available from other systems. Instead of designing the display, the disk, the memory, etc., manufacturers had to survey the market for available components and then design a system with those components. Even the original IBM PC used a keyboard from IBM's System/23 desktop computer system.
But PCs were popular, and manufacturers couldn't ignore the market. They started designing components for PCs. When Microsoft introduced Windows and set hardware standards, the transition was complete: The PC was the center of attention. Standards were set (and followed). Supply chains were built to provide components that met those standards, with robust delivery schedules. One could easily buy components and build PCs.
Some thirty years later, component manufacturers are now looking at the market for AI servers, and they cannot ignore it. Which means that they will pay less attention to the PC market -- or ignore it completely, like Micron is doing.
(I'm rather skeptical of the AI boom, and doubtful that it is sustainable, but that is another question. Micron is placing its bets. I'm assuming that other companies will follow.)
What does this change mean for the PC market? At a minimum, manufacturers of PCs will find it harder to obtain components. Some components will become more expensive. Others will become impossible to find. PC manufacturers may have to submit custom orders for components, or find other sources. It is easy to predict that the price of PCs will rise.
But we may also see fewer PC models, and longer times between announcements of new models. We may see "limited run" announcements in which a new model is available for a limited period of time, or a single production run.
Apple will be somewhat immune to this effect, as they design most components for their PCs. Sourcing components (that is, getting someone else to build Apple-designed components in large quantities) should be possible because Apple's scale is such that one does not ignore it.
But other manufacturers (Dell, LG, HP, etc.) who have relied on the PC supply chain may find their business at risk.
For consumers, I think we will see fewer offerings: Fewer PC models, and fewer configuration options. (Which perhaps may not be such a bad thing. I am often overwhelmed by the number of possibilities when I look for a new PC.)
