The end of more

From the very beginning, PC users wanted more. More pixels and more colors on the screen. More memory. Faster processors. More floppy disks. More data on floppy disks. (Later, it would be more data on hard disks.)

When IBM announced the PC/XT, we all longed for the space (and convenience) of its built-in hard drive. When IBM announced the PC/AT we envied those with the more powerful 80286 processor (faster! more memory! protected mode!). When IBM announced the EGA (Enhanced Graphics Adapter) we all longed for the higher-resolution graphics. With the PS/2, we wanted the reliability of 3.5" floppy disks and the millions of colors on a VGA display.

The desire for more didn't stop in the 1980s. We wanted the 80386 processor, and networks, and more memory, and faster printers, and multitasking. More programs! More data!

But maybe -- just maybe -- we have reached a point that we don't need (or want) more.

To quote a recent article in MacWorld:

"Ever since Apple announced its Apple silicon chip transition, the Mac Pro is the one Mac that everyone has anxiously been awaiting. Not because we’re all going to buy one–most of the people reading this (not to mention me, my editor, and other co-workers) won’t even consider the Mac Pro. It’s a pricey machine and the work that we do is handled just as well by any Mac in the current lineup".

Here's the part I find interesting:

"the work that we do is handled just as well by any Mac in the current lineup"

Let that sink in a minute.

The work done in the offices of MacWorld (which I assume is typical office work) can be handled by any of Apple's Mac computers. That means that the lowliest Apple computer can handle the work. Therefore, Macworld, being a commercial enterprise and wanting to reduce expenses, should be equipping its staff with the low-end MacBook Air or Mac mini PCs. To do otherwise would be wasteful.

It is not just the Apple computers that have outpaced computing needs. Low end Windows PCs also handle most office work. (I myself am typing this on a Dell desktop that was made in 2007.)

The move from 32-bit processing to 64-bit processing had a negligible affect on many computing tasks. Microsoft Word, for example, ran just as well in 32-bit Windows as it did in 64-bit Windows. The move to 64-bit processing did not improve word processing.

There are some who do still want more. People who play games want the best performance from not only video cards but also central processors and memory. Folks who edit video want performance and high-resolution displays.

But the folks who need, really need, high performance are a small part of the PC landscape. Many of the demanding tasks in computation can be handled better by cloud-based systems. It is only a few tasks that require local, high-performance processing.

The majority of PC users can get by with a low-end PC. The majority of PC users are content. One may look at a new PC with more memory or more pixels, but the envy has dissipated. We have enough colors, enough pixels, and enough storage.

If we have reached "peak more" in PCs, what does that mean for the future of PCs?

An obvious change is that people will buy PCs less frequently. With no urge to upgrade, people will keep their existing equipment longer. Corporations that buy PCs for employees may continue on a "replace every three years" schedule, but that was driven by depreciation rules and tax laws. Small mom-and-pop businesses will probably keep computers until a replacement is necessary (I suspect that they have been doing that all along). Some larger corporations may choose to defer PC replacements, noting that cash outlays for new equipment are still cash outlays, and should be minimized.

PC manufacturers will probably focus on other aspects of their wares. PC makers will strive for better battery life, durability, or ergonomic design. They may even offer Linux as an alternative to Windows.

It may be that our ideas about computing are changing. It may be that instead of local PCs that do everything, we are now looking at cloud computing (and perhaps older web applications) and seeing a larger expanse of computing. Maybe, instead of wanting faster PCs, we will shift our desires to faster cloud-based systems.

If that is true, then the emphasis will be on features of cloud platforms. They won't compete on pixels or colors, but they may compete on virtual processors, administration services, availability, and supported languages and databases. Maybe we won't be envious of new video cards and local memory, but envious instead of uptime and automated replication.