The end of more

From the very beginning, PC users wanted more. More pixels and more colors on the screen. More memory. Faster processors. More floppy disks. More data on floppy disks. (Later, it would be more data on hard disks.)

When IBM announced the PC/XT, we all longed for the space (and convenience) of its built-in hard drive. When IBM announced the PC/AT we envied those with the more powerful 80286 processor (faster! more memory! protected mode!). When IBM announced the EGA (Enhanced Graphics Adapter) we all longed for the higher-resolution graphics. With the PS/2, we wanted the reliability of 3.5" floppy disks and the millions of colors on a VGA display.

The desire for more didn't stop in the 1980s. We wanted the 80386 processor, and networks, and more memory, and faster printers, and multitasking. More programs! More data!

But maybe -- just maybe -- we have reached a point that we don't need (or want) more.

To quote a recent article in MacWorld:

"Ever since Apple announced its Apple silicon chip transition, the Mac Pro is the one Mac that everyone has anxiously been awaiting. Not because we’re all going to buy one–most of the people reading this (not to mention me, my editor, and other co-workers) won’t even consider the Mac Pro. It’s a pricey machine and the work that we do is handled just as well by any Mac in the current lineup".

Here's the part I find interesting:

"the work that we do is handled just as well by any Mac in the current lineup"

Let that sink in a minute.

The work done in the offices of MacWorld (which I assume is typical office work) can be handled by any of Apple's Mac computers. That means that the lowliest Apple computer can handle the work. Therefore, Macworld, being a commercial enterprise and wanting to reduce expenses, should be equipping its staff with the low-end MacBook Air or Mac mini PCs. To do otherwise would be wasteful.

It is not just the Apple computers that have outpaced computing needs. Low end Windows PCs also handle most office work. (I myself am typing this on a Dell desktop that was made in 2007.)

The move from 32-bit processing to 64-bit processing had a negligible affect on many computing tasks. Microsoft Word, for example, ran just as well in 32-bit Windows as it did in 64-bit Windows. The move to 64-bit processing did not improve word processing.

There are some who do still want more. People who play games want the best performance from not only video cards but also central processors and memory. Folks who edit video want performance and high-resolution displays.

But the folks who need, really need, high performance are a small part of the PC landscape. Many of the demanding tasks in computation can be handled better by cloud-based systems. It is only a few tasks that require local, high-performance processing.

The majority of PC users can get by with a low-end PC. The majority of PC users are content. One may look at a new PC with more memory or more pixels, but the envy has dissipated. We have enough colors, enough pixels, and enough storage.

If we have reached "peak more" in PCs, what does that mean for the future of PCs?

An obvious change is that people will buy PCs less frequently. With no urge to upgrade, people will keep their existing equipment longer. Corporations that buy PCs for employees may continue on a "replace every three years" schedule, but that was driven by depreciation rules and tax laws. Small mom-and-pop businesses will probably keep computers until a replacement is necessary (I suspect that they have been doing that all along). Some larger corporations may choose to defer PC replacements, noting that cash outlays for new equipment are still cash outlays, and should be minimized.

PC manufacturers will probably focus on other aspects of their wares. PC makers will strive for better battery life, durability, or ergonomic design. They may even offer Linux as an alternative to Windows.

It may be that our ideas about computing are changing. It may be that instead of local PCs that do everything, we are now looking at cloud computing (and perhaps older web applications) and seeing a larger expanse of computing. Maybe, instead of wanting faster PCs, we will shift our desires to faster cloud-based systems.

If that is true, then the emphasis will be on features of cloud platforms. They won't compete on pixels or colors, but they may compete on virtual processors, administration services, availability, and supported languages and databases. Maybe we won't be envious of new video cards and local memory, but envious instead of uptime and automated replication. 

After the GUI

Some time ago (perhaps five or six years ago) I watched a demo of a new version of Microsoft's Visual Studio. The new version (at the time) had a new feature: the command search box. It allowed the user to search for a command in Visual Studio. Visual Studio, like any Windows program, used menus and icons to activate commands. The problem was that Visual Studio was complex and had a lot of commands -- so many commands that the menu structure to hold them all was enormous, and searching for a command was difficult. Many times, users failed to find the command.

The command search box solved that problem. Instead of searching through menus, one could type the name of the command and Visual Studio would execute it (or maybe tell you the path to the command).

I also remember, at the time, thinking that this was not a good idea. I had the distinct impression that the command search box showed that the GUI paradigm had failed, that it worked up to a point of complexity but not beyond that point.

In one sense, I was right. The GUI paradigm does fail after a certain level of complexity.

But in another sense, I was wrong. Microsoft was right to introduce the command search box.

Microsoft has added the command search box to the online versions of Word and Excel. These command boxes work well, once you get acquainted with them. And you must get acquainted with them; some commands are available only through the command search box, and not through the traditional GUI.

Looking back, I can see the benefit of changing the user interface, and changing it in such a way as to make a new type of user interface.

The first user interface for personal computers was the command line. In the days of PC-DOS and CP/M-86, users had to type commands to invoke actions. There were some systems (such as the UCSD p-System) that used full-screen text displays as their interface, but these were rare. Most systems required the user to learn the commands and type them.

Apple's Macintosh and Microsoft's Windows used a GUI (Graphical User Interface) which provided the possible commands on the screen. Users could click on an icon to open a file, another icon to save the file, and a third icon to print the file. The icons were visible, and more importantly, they were the same across all programs. Rarely used commands were listed in menus, and one could quickly look through the menu to find a command.

Graphical User Interfaces with icons and buttons and menus worked, until they didn't. They were adequate for simple programs such as the early versions of Word and Excel, but they were difficult to use on complex programs that offered dozens (hundreds?) of commands.

The command search box addresses that problem. A program that uses the command search box, instead of displaying all possible commands in icons and buttons and menus, shows the commonly-used commands in the GUI and hides the less-used commands in the search box.

The search box is also rather intelligent. Enter a word or a phrase and the application shows a list of commands that are either what you want or close to it. It is, in a sense, a small search engine tuned to the commands for the application. As such, you don't have to remember the exact command.

This is a departure from the original concept of "show all possible actions". Some may consider it a refinement of the GUI; I think of it as a separate form of user interface.

I think that it is a separate form of interface because this concept could be applied to the traditional command line. (Command line interfaces are still around. Ask any user of Linux, or any admin of a server.) Today's command line interfaces are pretty much the same as the original ones from the 1970s, in that you must type the command from memory.

Some command shell programs now prompt you with suggestions to auto-complete a command. That's a nice enhancement. I think another enhancement could be something similar to the command search box of Microsoft Excel: a command that takes a phrase and reports matches. Such an option does not require graphics, so I think that this search-based interface is not tied to a GUI.

Command search boxes are the next step in the user interface. It follows the first two designs: command line (where you must memorize commands and type them exactly) and GUI (where you can see all of the commands in icons and menus). Command search boxes don't require every command to be visible (like in a GUI) and they don't require the user to recall each command exactly (like in a command line). They really are something new.

Now all we need is a name that is better than "command search box".

Southwest airlines and computers

Southwest Airlines garnered a lot of attention last week, A large winter storm caused delays on a large number of flights, a problem with which all of the airlines had to cope. But Southwest had a more difficult time of it, and people are now jumping to conclusions about Southwest and its IT systems.

Before I comment on the conclusions to which people are jumping, let me explain what I know about the problem.

The problem in Southwest's IT systems, from what I can tell, has little to do with the age of their programs or the programming languages that they chose. Instead, the problem is caused by a mix of automated and manual processes.

Southwest, like all airlines, must manage its aircraft and crews. For a large airline, this is a daunting task. Airplanes fly across the country, starting at one point and ending at a second point. Many times (especially for Southwest) the planes stop at intermediate points. Not only do airplanes make these transits, but crews do as well. The pilots and cabin attendants go along for the ride, so to speak.

Southwest, or any airline, cannot simply assign planes and crews at random. They must take into account various constraints. Flight crews, for example, can work for so many hours and then they must rest. Aircraft must be serviced at regular intervals. The distribution of planes (and crews) must be balanced -- an airline cannot end its business day with all of its aircraft and crews on the west coast, for example. The day must end with planes and crews positioned to start the next day.

For a very small airline (say one with two planes) this scheduling can be done by hand. For an airline with hundreds of planes, thousands of employees, and thousands of flights each day, the task is complex. It is no surprise that airlines use computers to plan the assignment of planes and crews. Computers can track all of the movements and ensure that constraints are respected by the plan.

But the task does not end with the creation of a set of flight assignments. During each day, random events can happen that delay a flight. Delays can be caused by headwinds, inclement weather, or sick passengers. (I guess crew members, being people, can get sick, too.)

Delays in one flight may mean delays in subsequent flights. Airlines may swap crews or planes from one planned flight to another, or they may simply wait for the late equipment. Whatever the reason, and whatever the change, the flight assignments have to be recalculated. (Much like a GPS system in your car recalculates the route when you miss an exit or a turn, except on a much larger scale.)

Southwest's system has two main components: an automated system and a manual process. The automated system handles the scheduling of aircraft and crews. The manual process handles the delays, and provides information to the automated system.

During the large winter storm, a large number of flights were delayed. So many flights were delayed that the manual process for updating information was overwhelmed -- people could not track and input the information fast enough to keep the automated system up to date.

A second problem happened on the automated side. So many people visited the web site (to check the status of flights) that it, too, could not handle all of the requests.

This is what I think happened. (At least, this makes sense to me.)

A number of people have jumped to the conclusion that Southwest's IT systems were antiquated and outdated, and that lead to the breakdown. Some people have jumped further and concluded that Southwest's management actively prevented maintenance and enhancements of their IT systems to increase profits and dividend payouts.

I'm not willing to blame Southwest's management, at least not without evidence. (And I have seen none.)

I will share these thoughts:

1. Southwest's IT systems -- even if they are outdated -- worked for years (decades?) prior to this failure.

2. All systems fail, given the right conditions.

One can argue that Southwest's system, a combination of automated and manual processes, could be redesigned to have more work handled by the automated side. It would require some way to track flights and record crews and planes arriving at a destination. Such changes are not trivial, and should be made with care.

One can argue that Southwest's IT systems use old programming techniques (and maybe even old programming languages), and Southwest should modernize their code. I find this argument unpersuasive, as newer programming languages and code written in those languages is not necessarily better (or more reliable) than the old code.

One can argue that Southwest's IT system could not scale up to handle the additional demand, and that Southwest should use cloud technologies to better meet variable demand. That is also a weak argument; moving to cloud technologies will not automatically make a system scalable.

Clearly this event was an embarrassment for Southwest, as well as a loss of some customer goodwill. (Not to mention the expense of refunds.) Given that a large winter storm could happen again (if not this year then possibly next year), Southwest may want to make adjustments to its scheduling systems and processes. But I would caution them against a large-scale re-write of their entire system. Such large projects tend to fail. Instead, I would recommend small, incremental improvements to their databases, their web sites, and their scheduling systems.

Whatever course Southwest chooses, I hope that it is executed with care, and with respect for the risks involved.