A few minor thoughts on Apple's new M1 processor

Apple has released their new M1 processor and their new Mac and Macbook computer which use the new processor. Apple is quite proud of this achievement (and they have every right to be) and users are impressed with the performance of the M1.

Yet I have some concerns about the new processors.

First, with the new processors and the new Macs, Apple has consistently emphasized performance, but little beyond that. Their demos have featured games and video editing, to show off the performance. The advertising is far from the presentations of yore which listed features and boasted MIPS ratings. (Perhaps video games are the new way to boast processor performance.) Apple's announcement was designed for consumers, not corporate buyers and not technologists and especially not developers. Apple has made their computers faster (and more efficient, so longer battery life) but not necessarily more capable.

Second, Apple's change to proprietary ARM processors (and let's be real, the design is proprietary) fractures the hardware market. Apple equipment is now different from "regular" personal computers. This is not new; Apple used PowerPC processors prior to using Intel processors in 2006. But the new Macs are different enough (and designed with enough security) that other operating systems cannot (and probably will never) be installed on them. Linus Torvalds has commented on the new Macs, and indicated that without Apple's support, Linux will not run on the M1 Macs.

Third, Apple made no announcement of cloud computing. This is not a surprise; Apple has not offered cloud computing and I see nothing to change that in the near future. It is telling that Amazon, not Apple, has announced new offerings of Apple M1 Mac minis in the cloud. Apple seems content to limit their use of cloud computing to iCloud storage, online documents, and Siri. I'm not expecting Apple to offer cloud computing for some time.

Moving beyond Apple, what will other manufacturers (Dell, Lenovo, etc) do? Will they switch to ARM processors?

I expect that they will not -- at least not on their own. Their situation is different. Apple has control over hardware and software. Apple designs the computer (and now, the processor). Apple designs and writes the operating system. Apple builds many of the applications for the Mac. This vertical integration lets Apple switch to a proprietary processor.

Manufacturers for "regular" personal computers rely on Windows, which is designed and written by Microsoft. Microsoft sells some applications, but encourages a large ecosystem of applications. A corresponding shift in the "regular" PC market requires the cooperation Microsoft, hardware manufacturers, and application developers. Such a change is possible, but I think Microsoft has to lead the effort.

Microsoft does provide a hardware specification for running Windows, and they could issue a specification that uses an ARM processor. Such a specification would exist along side the current Intel-based specification, expanding the space for Windows PCs. Microsoft could even design and build their own hardware, much as they did with Surface tablets and laptops.

I expect that Microsoft will support ARM processors (although not Apple's M1 processors) and offer cloud compute services for those processors. They may design a custom ARM processor, as Apple has done, or use a "standard" ARM processor design.

Getting back to Apple, I can see that the new M1 processor gives Apple more control over its market. The "expansion" market of running non-Apple operating systems is, as I see it, terminated with the M1 Macs. Boot Camp is out, Parallels works (but not with virtual machines), and non-Apple operating systems cannot be installed. (Technically that's not quite true. A clever engineer did get the ARM version of Windows to run on an M1 Mac, but only by using QEMU as an intermediary. It wasn't native ARM Windows on the M1 Mac.)

More control may sound good, but it does alienate some folks.

The Linux crowd will move to other hardware. Linux is a small presence in the desktop market, and Apple may not care or notice even. But Linux is a large presence in the developer market, and a decline in developers using Macs may affect Apple.

The Windows crowd has plenty of options for hardware, with more as Microsoft expands Windows to ARM processors. Windows laptops are just as good as Macbooks, and better in some ways, with options for non-glare displays and finger-friendly keyboards. My experience has shown that PC hardware tends to last longer than Apple hardware (especially equipment built after 2010).

I think, in the long run, Apple's move will fragment the market, aligning Apple hardware with Apple operating systems and Apple applications. It will push developers away from Apple hardware, and therefore Apple operating systems and the entire Apple ecosystem. Apple won't die from this, but it will give up some market share. The more noticeable effect will be the separation of processing on Apple and non-Apple platforms. Apple will be in their own world, their own garden of hardware, operating systems, and applications, and they will gradually drift away from mainstream computing.