Predictions for 2020

I have some predictions for 2020. They may (or may not) be correct.

Hardware: Virtual desktops and the cloud

I expect 2020 to be the "year of the cloud", in a sense. While cloud computing is popular, I see the phrase "the cloud" becoming more popular in the upcoming year, even more popular than cloud computing itself. How can this be? How can the term be used more than the actual thing?

I expect that lots of people with use the term "the cloud" to mean online (or web-based) computing, even in situations that do not use actual, honest-to-goodness cloud computing.

We will see an interest in virtual desktops, specifically for Windows. Today's PCs are real PCs with operating systems and applications. In 2020, look for a push (by Microsoft) for virtual desktops - instances of Windows hosted on servers and accessed by a browser or by Microsoft's Remote Desktop program.

Most folks will call this "Windows in the cloud" or "cloud computing". The former is a more accurate term, but the second is not too wrong. Virtual desktops will be hosted on servers, with some applications built for cloud computing and others not. Microsoft's Office products (Word, Excel, and Outlook) will all reside in the cloud as try cloud applications. Applications from other vendors will run on virtual desktops but won't be true cloud applications.

Virtual Windows desktops offer several advantages to Microsoft: they are paid as subscriptions, so Microsoft gets a steady cash flow. Second, Microsoft can move customers to the latest version Windows 10. Third, and perhaps most importantly, Apple is not prepared to offer a matching service. (Apple remains in the world of "fat desktops" which run the operating system and the applications. They cannot move that experience to virtual workstations hosted in the cloud.)

Cloud-based Windows is not for everyone. Some will be unwilling to move to virtual desktops, and some will be unable to move. Anyone who insists on running an older version of Windows will remain in "fat desktop" land. And anyone who cannot install their software (perhaps because they have mislaid the install CD-ROM) will stay with their current desktop computers.

Those who do move to virtual desktops will be able to use simpler, lightweight computers (perhaps Chromebooks, perhaps computers with "Windows in S mode") that run little more than the software necessary to access the virtual desktop. The physical desktop computer will be a "terminal" to the virtual desktop. The benefits for those users will be cheaper hardware, more reliable desktops, invisible backups, versioning of data files, and the ability to shift work from one lightweight desktop "terminal" to another.

Programming languages: More Python, less Perl

Perl was perhaps the first programming language to be designated a "scripting language". (It won the designation, although other languages such as Awk and Csh predate it.)

But Perl has fallen on hard times. Developers have left Perl for Python, and the "Perl 6" effort, delayed and poorly advertised, has now re-branded itself as "Raku" to allow Perl 5 to continue without the cloud of eventual shutdown. The change comes late, and I fear that many have abandoned Perl in favor of Python.

Ruby is in a similar situation, with Python appealing to many developers and interest in Ruby is waning.

Python is winning the "scripting race". Many schools teach it, and many experienced developers recommend it as a first language to learn. (I'm in that group.) It has good support with libraries, tools, and documentation. Microsoft supports it in "Visual Studio Code" and in "Visual Studio".

I expect Python to gain in popularity, and Perl and Ruby to decline.

Programming languages: Smaller languages

I expect to see a shift from object-oriented languages (Java, C#, and C++) to smaller scripting languages (Python and perhaps Ruby).

Object-oriented languages are effective for large, complex systems. They were just what we needed for the large, complex applications that ran on PCs and servers -- before cloud computing. With cloud computing, we build systems (large or small) out of services, and we strive to make services small. (A large application can built of many small services.)

Java, C#, and C++ can be used to build small services, but often Python and other languages can be a better fit. The "big" object-oriented languages carry a lot of baggage to make object-oriented programming work; the smaller languages carry less.

Two possible contenders for building services may be Swift and Visual Basic. Swift is relatively new, and still undergoing changes. Visual Basic has evolved through several generations and Microsoft may create a smaller, lighter version for services. (These are guesses; I have no indication from Apple or Microsoft that such projects are underway or even under consideration.)

Programming languages: Safer languages

The languages Rust and Go are getting a lot of attention. Both are compiled languages, letting one build fast and efficient applications.

Rust and Go may challenge C and C++ as the premiere languages for high-performance systems. C and C++ have had a good run, from the 1970s to today. But more and more, safety in programs is becoming important. The design of languages such as Rust and Go give them an advantage over C and C++.

C and C++ will stay with us, of course. Many large-scale and popular projects are written in them. I don't expect those projects to convert to Rust, Go, or any other language.

I do expect new projects to consider Rust and Go as candidate languages. I also expect projects to convert existing systems from their current technology (which could be COBOL, Fortran, or even C and C++) to think about Rust and Go.

Containers: Nice for deployment, little else

Containers were quite popular in the past year, and I expect that they will remain popular. They are convenient ways of deploying (or sharing with others) a complete application, all ready to go.

Containers offer no benefits beyond that, however, and they are helpful only to the people who must deploy applications. Therefore, containers, like virtual machines, will quietly move to the realm of sysadmins.

Development: better tech than ever

For the year 2020, the picture for development looks rather nice. We have capable languages (and lots of them); stable networks, servers, and operating systems; powerful tools for testing, deployment, and monitoring; and excellent tools for communication and collaboration. Problems in development will not be technical in nature -- which means that the challenges we face will be with people and interactions.

For developers (and project managers), I expect to see interest in collaboration tools. That includes the traditional tools such as version control, item tracking, and messaging tools such as Slack. We might see interest in new tools that have not been introduced as yet.

Summary

I see a bright future for development. We have good tools and good practices. The challenges will be people-oriented, not technology-oriented. Let's enjoy this year!