Lots of (obsolete) Chromebooks

We users of PCs are used to upgrades, for both hardware and software. We comfortably expect this year's PC to be faster than last year's PC, and this year's Windows (or macOS, or Linux) to be better than last year's Windows.

We're also used to obsolescence with hardware and software. Very few people use Windows XP these days, and the number of people using Windows 3.1 (or MS-DOS) is vanishingly small. The modern PC uses an Intel or AMD 64-bit processor.

Hardware and software both follow a pattern of introduction, acceptance, popularity, and eventual replacement. It should not surprise us that Chromebooks follow the same pattern. Google specifies hardware platforms and manufacturers build those platforms and install Chrome OS. After some time, Google drops support for a platform. (That period of time is a little over six years.)

For obsolete PCs (those not supported by Windows) and MacBooks (those not supported by macOS) the usual "upgrade" is to install Linux. There are several Linux distros that are suitable for older hardware. (I myself am running Ubuntu 16.04 on an old 32-bit Intel-based MacBook.)

Back to Chromebooks. What will happen with all of those Chromebooks that are marked as "obsolete" by Google?

There are a few paths forward.

The first (and least effort) path is to simply continue using the Chromebook and its version of Chrome. Chrome OS should continue to run, and Chrome should continue to run. The Chromebook won't receive updates, so Chrome will be "frozen in time" and gradually become older, compared to other browsers. There may come a time when its certificates expire, and it will be unable to initiate secure sessions with servers. At that point, Chrome (and the Chromebook) will have very few uses.

Another obvious path is to replace it. Chromebooks are typically less expensive than PCs, and one could easily buy a new Chromebook. (And since the Chromebook model of computing is to store everything on the server and nothing on the Chromebook, there is no data to migrate from the old Chromebook to the new one.)

Yet there is another option between "continue as is" and "replace".

One could replace the operating system (and the browser). The Chromebook is a PC, effectively, and there are ways to replace its operating system. Microsoft has instructions for installing Windows 10 on a Chromebook, and there are many sites that explain how to install Linux on a Chromebook.

Old Chromebooks will be fertile ground for tinkerers and hobbyists. Tinkerers and hobbyists are willing to open laptops (Chromebooks included), adjust hardware, and install operating systems. When Google drops support for a specific model of Chromebook, there is little to lose in replacing Chrome OS with something like Linux. (Windows 10 on a Chromebook is tempting, but many Chromebooks have minimal hardware, and Linux may be the better fit.)

I expect to see lots of Chromebooks on the used market, in stores and online, and lots of people experimenting with them. They are low-cost PCs suitable for small applications. The initial uses will be as web browsers or remote terminals to server-based applications (because that what we use Chromebooks for now). But tinkerers and hobbyists are clever and imaginative, and we may see new uses, such as low-end games or portable word processors.

Perhaps a new operating system will emerge, one that is specialized for low-end hardware. There are already Linux distros which support low-end PCs (Puppy Linux, for one) and we may see more interest in those.

Those Chromebooks that are converted to Linux will probably end up running a browser. It may be Firefox, or, in an ironic twist, they may run Chromium -- or even Chrome! The machine that Google says is "not good enough" may be just good enough to run Google's browser.