Apple improves, but does not invent

That headline is a bit strong, and fighting words to Apple devotees.

My point is that Apple examines a market, finds a product, and builds a better version. It has built the proverbial better mousetrap, and the world has beaten a path to Apple's door.

Let's look at the history.

The iPhone, Apple's signature and most successful product, was (and is) a hand-held computer that can act as a cell phone. The iPhone was not the first cell phone, nor was it the first hand-held computer. Prior to the iPhone we had the Palm series of computers, and Microsoft's attempt at hand-held computers with a stripped-down version of Windows named, unfortunately, WinCE. (And "wince" is how many us us had to look at the low-resolution screens of the Windows hand-held computers.)

Apple looked at the market of hand-held computers and built a better version. It just happened to have a phone.

Apple's success goes beyond the iPhone.

The iPod was Apple's music player. It was not the first music player, but it was better than existing models. The physical design was better, but more importantly, the iTunes software that let people easily (and consistently) purchase music (rather than download from shady web sites) made the iPod a success.

Apple looked at the market of music players and music downloads and built a better version.

The MacBook Air was (and still is) Apple's design for a laptop computer. Slim, light, and capable, it was better than the competing laptops of the time. Manufacturers have now adopted the MacBook design into their own product lines.

Apple looked at the market of laptop computers and built a better version.

The Apple watch is a product with modest success. It was not the first digital watch. Its connectivity to the iPhone makes it easy to use and more capable than other digital watches, including those with apps that you install on your phone.

Apple looked at the market of digit watches and built a better version.

The Macintosh was Apple's second major success in the computer market. As with the iPod, the hardware was good and the software was better. It was the operating system, with its graphical interface, that made the Macintosh a success. The "Mac" was easier to use than PCs or clones running PC-DOS.

Apple looked at the market of desktop computers (and operating systems) and built a better version.

The history shows that Apple does not invent successful products, but instead improves on existing products. Apple often brings disparate elements together (the iPhone was a combination of cell phone and hand-held computer, the Macintosh was a combination of PC and graphical operating system) into a usable design. That's a good skill, and somewhat rare. But it has its weakness. (More on that later.)

Apple can invent; they designed and built the Apple II in the early microcomputer days. While the Apple II was not the first home computer, it was among the first. The Apple II was built for the consumer market, much like a television. Apple invented the home computer -- perhaps at the same time as others -- and deserves credit for its work.

The problem with Apple's strategy (building better mousetraps) is that there must be mousetraps (of the non-better kind) to begin with. One cannot build the better mousetrap until mousetraps exist, and one has ideas for a better version of the mousetrap.

The challenge for Apple, now, is to find a market and build a better product. I'm not sure where Apple can go. There is AI, which is a nascent market with a few early products (much like the microcomputer market before the IBM PC) but it does not fit well into Apple's overall strategy of selling hardware.

Another possibility is virtual reality and augmented reality. Microsoft offers the HoloLens heads-up display, which is admired but not used all that much. (A few games and experimental applications, but no "killer" app.) Apple could design and sell their own although heads-up display, but they may encounter the same dearth of applications that stymies Microsoft. Apple would have to create (or entice others to create) content. It could be done, but it doesn't fit the historical pattern.

Apple could move into games with a gaming console of their own. There are already games available, and the market has a ready set of customers. The competition is stiff, and Apple will have a challenge to design the "better mousetrap" of a game console, and convince game producers to create versions for Apple's console. Also, gamers -- serious players -- like to modify and enhance their hardware. Apple products are usually sealed shut and closed to modification.

Self-driving cars? The idea has been discussed. But self-driving cars are not commercially available. Apple likes to let others develop the first products and then bring on a better mousetrap.

Apple has avoided the cloud services market. Apple may use cloud technologies for things like Siri and backup, but they don't sell services the way Amazon and Microsoft do. (Mostly, I think, because cloud services move processing off the local device, and Apple wants to sell expensive local devices.)

As tablet sales decline and phone sales plateau, Apple has some interesting challenges. I don't know where they are going to go. (Which means I will be surprised when they do.) I'm not bearish on Apple -- I think they have a bright future -- and I hope to be pleasantly surprised.