Law comes to computing's Wild West

I see Windows 10 S as the future of Windows. The model of "software only through a store" works for phones and tablets, provides better security, and reduces administrative work. It is "good enough" for corporate users and consumers, and those two groups drive the market. ("Good enough" if the right applications are available in the store, that is.)

But.

The introduction of Windows 10 S is a step in the closing the frontier we fondly think of as "personal computing".

This "closing of the frontier" has been happening for some time.

The IBM PC was open to tinkerers, in both hardware and, to some extent, software. On the hardware side, the IBM PC was designed for adapter cards, and designed to allow individuals to open the case and insert them. IBM released technical specifications which allowed other manufacturers to create their own cards. It was a smart move by IBM, and helped ensure the success of the PC.

On the software side, there were three operating systems available for the IBM PC: DOS, CP/M-86, and UCSD p-System. These were less restrictive than today's operating systems, with no notion of "user" or "administrator", no notion of "user privileges" or "user account". The operating system (such as it was) managed files on disk and loaded programs into memory when requested.

It was a time akin to the "wild west" with no controls on users. Any user could attach any device or install any program. (Getting everything to work was not always easy, and not always possible, but users could try.)

How has the PC realm become closed?

First, let me say that it is not totally closed. Users still have a great deal of freedom, especially on PCs they purchase for themselves (as opposed to corporate-issued PCs).

But the freedom to do anything meant that users could break things, easily, and lose data and disable programs. It also meant that ill-meaning individuals could write virus programs and cause problems. Over time, we (as an industry and group of users) decided that restrictions were necessary.

One of the first things corporate support groups did, when preparing a new PC, was to remove the 'FORMAT' program. (Or rename it.) It was considered too "dangerous" for a non-technical user.

The next set of restrictions came with Windows NT. It provided the notion of 'user accounts' and logins and passwords -- and enforced them. Windows NT also provided the notion of 'user privileges' which meant that some users could adjust settings for the operating system and others could not. Some users could install software, and others could not. Some users could... you get the idea.

Restrictions have not been limited to software.

UEFI replaced the BIOS, and was not "flashable" as many BIOSes had been.

Smaller computers (laptops and tablets) are generally not openable. The IBM PC provided access to memory, adapter cards, DIP switches (remember those?), and the power supply. Today, most laptops allow access to memory chips... and little else. (DIP switches have disappeared from PCs entirely, and no one misses them.)

Which brings us to Windows 10 S.

Windows 10 S is a move to close the environment a little more. It makes a PC more like a phone, with an official "store" where one must buy software. You cannot install just any software. You cannot write your own software and install it.

The trend has been one of a gradual increase in "law" in our wild west. As in history, the introduction of these "laws" has meant the curtailment of individuals' freedoms. You cannot re-format your phone, at least not accidentally, and not to a blank disk. (Yes, you can reset your phone, which isn't quite the same thing.)

Another way to look at the situation is a change in the technology. We have shifted from the original PCs that required hardware and software configuration to meet the needs of the user (an individual or a larger entity). Instead of the early (incomplete) computers, we have well-defined and fully-functional computers that provide limited configuration capabilities. This is accepted because the changes that we want to make are within the "locked down" configuration of the PC. The vast majority of users don't need to set parameters for the COM port, or add memory, or install new versions of Lotus 1-2-3. In corporate settings, users run the assigned software and choose a photo for our desktop background; at home we install Microsoft Office and let it run as it comes "out of the box".

The only folks who want to make changes are either corporate sysadmins or individual tinkerers. And there are very few tinkerers, compared to the other users.

For the tinkerers and organizations that need "plain old Windows", it is still available. Windows 10-without-S works as it has before. You can install anything. You can adjust anything. Provided you have the privileges to do so.

I see Windows S as an experiment, testing the acceptance of such a change in the market. I expect a lot of noise from protesters, but the interesting aspect will be behavior. Will the price of Windows 10 S affect acceptance? Possibly. Windows 10 S is not sold separately -- only preloaded onto computers. So look for the purchasing behavior of low-cost Windows 10 S devices.

In the long term, I expect Windows 10 S or a derivative to become the popular version of Windows. Corporations and governments will install it for employees, and keep the non-S version of Windows for those applications that cannot run under Windows 10 S. Those instances of Windows (the non-S instances) will most likely be run on virtual machines in data centers, not on individuals' desks.

But those instances of "non-S Windows" will become few, and eventually fade into history, along with PC-DOS and Windows 95. Ans while a few die-hard enthusiasts will keep them running, the world will switch to a more protected, a more secure, and a less wild-west version of Windows.