An end to Microsoft Windows

Operating systems die.

Not in the sense of crashing and needing to be re-started -- although that happens too -- but in the sense of becoming dead technology, abandoned by their vendors and users.

I've seen various operating systems die. PC-DOS (or MS-DOS) is a dead operating system, used only in museums and by the rare enthusiast.

CP/M is perhaps the most well-known of the pre-PC operating systems, but there were several: TRS-DOS for Radio Shack, HDOS for Heathkit computers, the UCSD p-system, and Apple's DOS for its Apple II line, to name a few. They were all tied to specific hardware designs (except for CP/M) and they died as people moved away from those devices. CP/M transitioned to the IBM PC but failed in the market.

Will Windows die? Eventually, yes. All operating systems, just like all technologies, are abandoned for something new. But the demise of Windows may be sooner than we expect.

Windows, for a long time, was a strategic component in Microsoft's empire. Microsoft built Windows and applications on top of Windows, and sold them to customers. Microsoft's products all interlocked: Active Directory ran on Windows, SQL Server used Active Directory for authentication, Word and Excel used OLE and COM, and so on. Once you bought into a single Microsoft product, you had strong incentive to use others.

Microsoft is shifting its strategy. It no longer centers its technology on Windows; Azure and web services are the new center. Microsoft doesn't care if Azure customers use Windows on their computers, or even if the virtual servers in Azure are running Windows; Microsoft wants Azure customers. Thus, Windows is less important.

Look at Microsoft's recent actions:

- Windows 10 released to existing users for free (so it is not a source of revenue)
- Linux instances in Azure
- Visual Studio Express, a web application (no Windows needed!)
- .NET and C# ported to Linux
- Microsoft Office apps for Android and iOS
- SQL Server to run on Linux
- A Linux layer to Windows

If Microsoft can move their Azure instances and services to Linux, they will have little need for Windows. When the major revenue source is Azure and web services, why invest in a product with high expense and little return? It is quite possible that Microsoft is preparing to abandon Windows.

Here are some other actions that Microsoft may take:

- A new Surface laptop to compete with Chromebooks, one that runs a stripped-down Windows (or possibly Linux)
- A filesystem for Linux that can read and write to NTFS
- Other Office products migrated to Android and iOS

Microsoft has already moved away from Windows as a strategic technology. Each of these actions moves Microsoft away from Windows a little more.

Windows won't disappear overnight. Microsoft has committed to supporting Windows 10 for ten years, like it has supported the earlier versions. This is important for large corporations and governments who have contracts with Microsoft. But that doesn't mean Microsoft will keep Windows in the market forever. At some point Microsoft could stop selling Windows; in the retail market first and the large-contract market later.

At that point, Windows will be a dead operating system. I'm sure it will be used by individuals, small companies, and large organizations for many more years, but over time those instances will be shut down in favor of cloud-based systems.

Operating systems die. Windows is no exception.