Windows 10 means a different future for PCs

Since the beginning, PCs have always been growing.  The very first IBM PCs used 16K RAM chips (for a maximum of 64K on the CPU board); these were quickly replaced by PCs with 64K RAM chips (which allowed 256K on the CPU board).

We in the PC world are accustomed to new releases of bigger and better hardware.

It may have started with that simple memory upgrade, but it continued with hard drives (the IBM PC XT), enhanced graphics, higher-capacity floppy disks, and a more capable processor (the IBM PC AT), and an enhanced buss, even better graphics, and even better processors (the IBM PS/2 series).

Improvements were not limited to IBM. Compaq and other manufacturers revised their systems and offered larger hard drives, better processors, and more memory. Every year saw improvements.

When Microsoft became the market leader, it played an active role in the specification of hardware. Microsoft also designed new operating systems for specific minimum platforms: you needed certain hardware to run Windows NT, certain (more capable) hardware for Windows XP, and even more capable hardware for Windows Vista.

Windows 10 may change all of that.

Microsoft's approach to Windows 10 is different from previous versions of Windows. The changes are twofold. First, Windows 10 will see a constant stream of updates instead of the intermittent service packs of previous versions. Second, Windows 10 is "it" for Windows -- there will be no later release, no "Windows 11".

With no Windows 11, people running Windows 10 on their current hardware should be able to keep running it. Windows Vista forced a lot of people to purchase new hardware (which was one of the objections to Windows Vista); Windows 11 won't force that because it won't exist.

Also consider: Microsoft made it possible for just about every computer running Windows 8 or Windows 7 (or possibly Windows Vista) to upgrade to Windows 10. Thus, Windows 10 requires just as much hardware as those earlier versions.

What may be happening is that Microsoft has determined that Windows is as big as it is going to be.

This makes sense for desktop PCs and for servers running Windows.

Most servers running Windows will be in the cloud. (They may not be now, but they will be soon.) Cloud-based servers don't need to be big. With the ability to "spin up" new instances of a server, an overworked server can be given another instance to handle the load. A system can provide more capacity with more servers. It is not necessary to make the server bigger.

Desktop PCs, either in the office or at home, run a lot of applications, and these applications (in Microsoft's plan) are moving to the cloud. You won't need a faster machine to run the new version of Microsoft Word -- it runs in the cloud and all you need is a browser.

It may be that Microsoft thinks that PCs have gotten as powerful as they need to get. This is perhaps not an unreasonable assumption. PCs are powerful and can handle every task we ask of them.

As we shift our computing from PCs and discrete servers to the cloud, we eliminate the need for improvements to PCs and discrete servers. The long line of PC growth stops. Instead, growth will occur in the cloud.

Which doesn't mean that PCs will be "frozen in time", forever unchanging. It means that PC *growth* will stop, or at least slow to a glacial pace. This has already happened with CPU clock frequencies and buss widths. Today's CPUs are about as fast (in terms of clock speed) as CPUs from 2009. Today's CPUs use a 64-bit data path, which hasn't changed since 2009. PCs will grow, slowly. Desktop PCs will become physically smaller. Laptops will become thinner and lighter, and battery life will increase.

PCs, as we know them today, will stay as we know them today.