The coming split in computing

Personal computers have been rarely personal. The IBM PC (the original Personal Computer) may have been designed for individuals but was used by corporations. Earlier computers (the Apple II or the Radio Shack TRS-80) were used by a few hardy hobbyists, and a few hardy businesses.

The two markets for PCs -- the home market and the corporate market -- have used the same hardware and software since the IBM PC.  Adoption rates increased dramatically with the introduction of Microsoft Windows, and there were some differences between Windows 95/98 and Windows NT, but both home and business used the same "stuff". Microsoft's dominance in the market helped create a set of uniform products. After 2000, everyone used Windows 2000 (later Windows XP) and Microsoft Office (Word, Excel, and Outlook).

The two markets are driven by difference forces, however, and those differences will drive a change in the markets. The uniform environment of one operating system and one set of software will split.

Consumers are driven primarily by cost. Not just in PC markets, but in all markets. (Consider air travel. Consumers have consistently selected smaller seats and less comforts because of the lower price.)

Large organizations (corporations and governments) are sensitive to cost, but they also avoid risk. Risk avoidance is often handled by minimize change. Large organizations often have governance processes that standardize hardware and software and keep changes to a minimum. Small updates (such as security patches) are deployed in well-specified "off hours" time periods. Large updates (like a new operating system) are delayed until necessary, and implemented in a well-coordinated upgrade project.

The long life of Windows XP can be explained by both of these behaviors, but the reasoning in the two markets is different. For consumers, upgrading from Windows XP to Windows Vista (or Windows 7, or Windows 8) was a cost, and a cost with no apparent benefit. Yes, some individuals upgraded, but the majority kept the operating system that came with their PC.

Large organizations stayed with Windows XP, but to avoid risk. Also seeing no immediate benefit from a new version of an operating system (and recognizing the risks of programs or device drivers failing) those organizations chose to stay with Windows XP.

This difference in behavior is recognized by vendors. Microsoft has introduced two "tracks" for updates: the consumer track and the business track. Consumers get updates immediately; large organizations can defer updates. Linux provides Red Hat and Ubuntu also make available two tracks: Red Hat with (free) Fedora for consumers and (paid for) RHEL for organizations, Ubuntu with "regular" versions and "long term support" versions.

Notably, Apple does not have two tracks. They revise their hardware and software annually, if not more frequently. They are focussed on the consumer, not the enterprise.

Also notably, Android has only one track -- for consumers.

With Apple and Android constantly revising hardware and software, the only player with a long-term mobile strategy may be Microsoft. We have insufficient experience with Microsoft hardware to decide.

Viewing the market as split between price-sensitive consumers and risk-averse large organizations, I expect that hardware and software will also split. Consumer software will remain free or low-priced, and move to the mobile/cloud environment -- and away from PCs. Enterprise software will stay on PCs (and servers) with little movement onto mobile devices.

Which is not to say that mobile devices won't been seen in large organizations. They will be, but they will be truly personal devices. Individuals will use them to check e-mail, confirm appointments, and surf the web during boring meetings. Enterprise work, however, will remain on PCs and on PC-like devices, including lightweight laptops such as Chromebooks and Cloudbooks.