The shift to cloud is bigger than we think

We've been using operating systems for decades. While they have changed over the years, they have offered a consistent set of features: time-slicing of the processor, memory allocation and management, device control, file systems, and interrupt handling.

Our programs ran "under" (or "on top of") an operating system. Our programs were also fussy -- they would run on one operating system and only that operating system. (I'm ignoring the various emulators that have come and gone over time.)

The operating system was the "target", it was the "core", it was the sun around which our programs orbited.

So it is rather interesting that the shift to cloud computing is also a shift away from operating systems.

Not that cloud computing is doing away with operating systems. Cloud computing coordinates the activities of multiple, usually virtualized, systems, and those systems run operating systems. What changes in cloud computing is the programming target.

Instead of a single computer, a cloud system is composed of multiple systems: web servers, database servers, and message queues, typically. While those servers and queues must run on computers (with operating systems), we don't care about them. We don't insist that they run any specific operating system (or even use a specific processor). We care only that they provide the necessary services.

In cloud computing, the notion of "operating system" fades into the infrastructure.

As cloud programmers, we don't care if our web server is running Windows. Nor do we care if it is running Linux. (The system administrators do care, but I am taking a programmer-centric view.) We don't care which operating system manages our message queues.

The level of abstraction for programmers has moved from operating system to web services.

That is a significant change. It means that programmers can focus on a higher level of work.

Hardware-tuned programming languages like C and C++ will become less important. Not completely forgotten, but used only by the specialists. Languages such as Python, Ruby, and Java will be popular.

Operating systems will be less important. They will be ignored by the application level programmers. The system architects and sysadmins, who design and maintain the cloud infrastructure, will care a lot about operating systems. But they will be a minority.

The change to services is perhaps not surprising. We long ago shifted away from processor-specific code, burying they work in our compilers. COBOL and FORTRAN, the earliest languages, were designed to run on different processors. Microsoft insulated us from the Windows API with MFC and later the .NET framework. Java separated us from the processor with its virtual machine. Now we take the next step and bury the operating system inside of web services.

Operating systems won't go away. But they will become less visible, less important in conversations and strategic plans. They will be more of a commodity and less of a strategic advantage.