For PCs, small may be the new big thing

PCs have had the same size and shape (roughly) for the past thirty years. While we have seen improvements to processors (faster), memory (more), video adapters (faster and more memory), hard disks (bigger), and communication ports (faster, more, and simpler), the general design of a PC has been stagnant. The color may have changed from IBM's beige to Compaq's brown, to Dell's white, and to HP's black-and-silver, but the PC box has remained... a box.

In the early PC days, the large, spacious box with its expansion slots made sense. In the early days, PCs needed expansion and customization. The "base" PC was not enough for corporate work. When we bought a PC, we added video cards, memory cards, serial and parallel port cards, terminal emulator cards, and network cards. We even added cards with real-time clocks. It was necessary to open the PC and add these cards.

Over the years, more and more "extra" features became "standard". The IBM PC AT came with a built-in real-time clock, which eliminated one card. Memory increased. Hard drives became larger and faster. The serial ports and parallel ports were replaced by USB ports. Today's PC has enough memory, a capable video card, a big enough hard disk, a network interface, and ample USB ports. (Apple computers have slightly different communication options, but enough.)

The one constant in the thirty years of change has been the size of the PC. The original IBM PC was about the size of today's tower PC. PCs still have the card slots and drive bays for expansion, although few corporate users need such things.

That's about to change. PCs will shrink from their current size to one of two smaller sizes: small and nothing. The small PCs will be the size of the Apple Mini: a 4-inch by 4-inch box with ports and no expansion capabilities. The "nothing" size PCs will be virtual machines, existing only in larger computers. (Let's focus on the "small" size. We can discuss virtual PCs another time.)

The small PCs have all the features of a real PC: processor, memory, storage, video, and communications. They may have some compromises, with perhaps not the fastest processors and the most capable video cards, but they are good enough. They can run Windows or Linux, and the Apple Mini Mac runs MacOS, of course. All you need is a display, a keyboard, and a network connection. (These small-form PCs often have wire network interfaces and not wireless.)

I suppose that we can give credit to Apple for the change. Apple's Mini Mac showed that there was a steady demand for smaller, non-PC-shaped PCs. Intel has their "Next Unit of Computing" or NUC device, a small 4-inch by 4-inch PC with communication ports.

Other manufacturers had built small PCs prior to Apple's Mini Mac (the Shuttle PC is a notable pioneer) but received little notice.

The Arduino, the Raspberry Pi, and the Beaglebone and also small-form devices, designed mainly for tinkerers. I expect little interest from the corporate market in these devices.

But I do expect interest in the smaller "professional" units from Apple and Intel. I also expect to see units from other manufacturers like Lenova, Asus, HP, and Dell.

Small will be the new big thing.