No sleeping giant for cloud computing

I suspect that a lot of people are waiting for a "grand convergence" of the different forms of cloud computing, or a "market leader" to define a standard that everyone (or just about everyone) can use. Such an event occurred in the PC market, when IBM released their model 5150 PC into a frothy market of multiple architectures and standards.

While today's cloud environment is similar to the 1980 microcomputer market, with multiple vendors and varying "takes" on cloud computing (infrastructure as a service, platform as a service, software as a service), I'm not expecting a single approach to dominate the market.

The thing that we are missing is the "sleeping giant", the one large, well-respected company that had not entered the market. With microcomputers, that sleeping giant was IBM. Hundreds of small companies (and not so small companies) were selling into the market. Apple, interestingly, was one of them. The products varied, from fully assembled, ready-to-run systems (Radio Shack) to kits (Heathkit) to assemble-your-own-kit offerings. No one company was dominant, or even close.

But IBM was out there, and everyone knew it. IBM waited and picked a fortuitous time to enter the market. Their reputation (and product) defined a center for the market, a common ground, a mainstream.

With today's cloud market, the major players are involved. IBM is in, mostly for corporate and large customers. Microsoft is in, with Azure. Amazon.com is in, Google is in, and Apple is in. These companies have developed (and continue to develop) their offerings. There are no folks waiting on the sidelines for the opportune moment. (At least, no large, well-respected companies.)

Thus, I see no equivalent to the IBM PC for the cloud market. I see no one product or service offering that will take the market by storm.

Instead, I see the market remaining fragmented. I suspect that a few players may change (Oracle may buy Rackspace, for example) and some smaller players may gain ground. But no sleeping giant to "set the world straight".