The peak of PC apps

There has been talk about "peak oil", the notion that oil production peaks at a specific point and then declines as supplies are depleted. I think that there is a similar notion of "peak software" for a platform. When a platform is introduced, there is some initial interest and some software. As interest in the platform grows, the number of applications grows.

PC applications fell into five categories: office applications (word processing, spreadsheets, presentations), development (compilers, interpreters, debuggers, and IDEs), games, and specialty applications (CAD/CAM, Fedex and UPS shipping, mortgage document preparation, etc.), and web browsers.

The first (office applications) has generic software, something that everyone can use. The second (development) is software used by the tool-makers, a small but diverse (and enthusiastic) crowd. Games, like development tools, appealed to a small but diverse crowd. Interestingly, web browsers are used by many folks; as a tool to get to a web page or web app they are not the end but a means.

The rise of PC applications started prior to the PC, with the microcomputers of the late 1970s: the Apple II, the TRS-80, the Commodore PET, and others. Dominant programs at the time were compilers and interpreters (BASIC, mostly), word processors (Wordstar), spreadsheets (Visicalc), games, and some business software (accounting packages).

PC applications increased with the introduction of the IBM PC (Lotus 1-2-3, Wordperfect, and more business applications).

But something happened in the late 1990s: the number of applications stopped increasing. Part of this was due to Microsoft's dominance in office applications and development tools (who wants to compete with Microsoft?). Another part of this change was due to the appearance of the world wide web and web applications. I like to think that the "best and brightest" developers moved from PC development (a routine and dull area) to the web (a bright, shiny future).

Fast-forward to 2011, and the development of PC applications has all but stopped. Aside from updates to existing applications, I see nothing in the way of development. And even updates are few: Microsoft releases new versions of Windows and Office, but what other general software is updated?

I expect that the home PC market is about to collapse, with most folks moving to either game consoles or smartphones -- or maybe tablets. The few remaining members of the home PC community will be the folks who started the PC craze: hobbyists and hard-core enthusiasts.

Businesses will continue to use PCs and PC applications. They have large investments in such applications and cannot easily transition to smartphones and tablets. Their processes are set up for PC development; their standards define PCs (and mainframes) but not tablets. And tablet apps are very different from PC apps -- as PC apps are different from mainframe apps -- so the transition will require a change not of hardware but of mindset.

It's clear that Microsoft is prepared for this transition. They have geared their offerings for businesses, home game users, and home web users. They are prepared for the disappearance of the home PC.

Apple, too, is prepared for this change, with it's line of iPhones, iPods, and iPads.

The real question is: what happens to Linux? Linux has a "business model" that is built on the use of PCs, usually old PCs that are too small for the latest version of Windows. The hobbyists and enthusiasts may want to use Linux, but how will they get hardware? And without hardware, how will they run Linux?