The return of frugality

We may soon see a return to frugality with computing resources.

Ages ago, computers were expensive, and affordable by only the very wealthy (governments and large companies). The owners would dole out computing power in small amounts and charge for each use. They used the notion of "CPU time", which was the amount of time actually spent by the CPU processing your task.

The computing model of the day was timesharing, the allocation of a fraction of a computer to each user, and the accounting of usage by each user. The key aspects measured were CPU time, connect time, and disk usage.

The PC broke the timesharing model. Instead of one computer shared by a number of people, the PC let each person have their own computer. The computers were small and low-powered (laughingly so by today's standards) but enough for individual needs. With the PC, the timesharing mindset was discarded, and along with it went the attention to efficiency.

A PC is a very different creature from a timesharing system. The purchase is much simpler, the installation is much simpler, and the administration is (well, was) non-existent. Instead of purchasing CPU power by the minute, you purchased the PC in one lump sum.

This change was significant. The PC model had no billing for CPU time; the monthly bill disappeared. That made PC CPU time "free". And since CPU time was free, the need for tight, efficient code become non-existent. (Another factor in this calculus was the availability of faster processors. Instead of writing better code, you could buy a new faster PC for less than the cost of the programming time.)

The cloud computing model is different from the PC model, and returns to the model of timesharing. Cloud computing is timesharing, although with virtual PCs on large servers.

With the shift to cloud computing, I think we will see a return to some of the timesharing concepts. Specifically, I think we will see the concept of billable CPU time. With the return of the monthly bill, I expect to see a renaissance of efficiency. Managers will want to reduce the monthly bill, and they will ask for efficient programs. Development teams will have to deliver.

With pressure to deliver efficient programs, development teams will look for solutions and the market will deliver them. I expect that the tool-makers will offer solutions that provide better optimization and cloud-friendly code. Class libraries will advertise efficiency on various platforms. Offshore development shops will cite certification in cloud development methods and efficiency standards. Eventually, the big consultant houses will get into the act, with efficiency-certified processes and teams.

I suspect that few folks will refer to the works of the earlier computing ages. Our predecessors had to deal with computing constraints much more severe than the cloud environments of the early twenty-first century, yet we will (probably) ignore their work and re-invent their techniques.