Cloud computing is the mainframe model... sort of

I'm reading "The Joy of Minis and Micros: Data Processing with Small Computers", a collection of essays published in the Magazine "Computer Decisions" between 1974 and 1978. The articles explain quite a bit about the minicomputer market and how it compared to the then-mainframe and then-microcomputer markets. (The articles predate the IBM PC, so the name "microcomputer" refers to possibly the Altair, the Apple II, and possibly the Radio Shack TRS-80 model I.)

The minicomputer market was quite a departure from the mainframe market. The thing that made minicomputers different from mainframes wasn't their size (although they were smaller) or their cost (although they were less expensive), but the support model. Mainframes were big, complex beasts that needed specialized care and feeding, and when you bought (or more likely leased) one, you also paid the vendor for the support staff. The specialists included the programmers, the operators, the service techs, and the account representative.

Minicomputers were a completely different game. You often bought the equipment (although you could lease it if you wanted) and you got nothing in terms of support personnel. You uncrated the hardware, installed it, connected it, and ran the operation. You often did not need a special "computer room" with air conditioning and special power lines.

Microcomputers changed the model again. Not only were microcomputers smaller and cheaper than minicomputers, but they came with practically no software and you wrote a lot of your own. The folks who used microcomputers were usually hobbyists or enthusiasts, people with a few extra dollars and lots of time.

To use a metaphor, mainframes were established cities with city hall and the taxes to run it. Minicomputers were small towns with a voluteer council. Microcomputers were single farmhouses out on the prairie and required self-sufficiency.

Large corporations aren't too keen on employees that are self-sufficient. It requires employees to have varied skills, which drives up the salary (employees can work for lots of other companies) and it prevents an employee from developing specialized knowledge and possibly working at less than maximum efficiency. It's no surprise that large corporations adopted PCs reluctantly and have guided the development of PCs into "workstations" as part of a "domain" -- effectively moving PCs to the minicomputer model.

Cloud computing pushes technology towards the mainframe model. When you buy into a cloud, you're not buying the hardware, but the computing power, much like the mainframe model of leasing the equipment. The difference is that the computind hardware is not installed on your premises, but in the vendor's data center. (One could argue that cloud computing is a re-make of the timesharing model of the 1970s.)

Also with cloud computing, you're not performing the administration, but letting the vendor handle that work. This, too, is similar to the mainframe model, with the difference being that the administrators are not on site.

I think large corporations will find the cloud model attractive -- just as large corporations found the mainframe model attractive. I also predict that smaller companies and individuals will look for independent and lower-cost solutions. Look to see services for on-line virtual computing services, possibly hosted in cloud environments but sold differently.

Large corporations will want enterprise cloud solutions with access controls on users and billing by department and project. Small companies will be less concerned with department-level billing and access; they will probably want multiple virtual PCs that can share data. Individual users will want single PCs with lots of control over them.

The succesful cloud vendor will tailor their offerings to the desires of their customers. The vendors who offer a "one size fits all" will probably offer large, enterprise-scale solutions and find little demand from any but the largest companies.