Small is the new big, again

Computers have been getting smaller (yet more powerful) for decades. The early microcomputers (Apple II, Commodore PET, Radio Shack TRS-80) provided just enough processor and memory to do interesting things. They had less power than today's average non-smart cellphone, and much less than smartphones like the iPhone and Droid.

Since those days, microcomputers (now called PCs) have become more powerful, faster, cheaper, and smaller.

The trend for power has changed, though. We ran off of the curve of Moore's Law a few years ago, stopped by heat dissapation, etching resolution, and cosmic rays. Yet our thirst for power remains.

Cloud computing is the next big thing, and it uses computers, but it does not rely on increasing power. Or more specifically, it does not rely on increasing the power of a single device. Instead, cloud computing relies on the power of a collection of devices. (And allows for the addition or removal of devices.)

I find this point fascinating. We've stopped climbing the curve of Moore's Law, and we are now leveraging the network.

One observation is that the network is good enough to leverage. Our understanding of networking (hardware, software, and programming) is strong enough to support sophisticated configurations.

With a strong network technology, we can "ease off" on the push for powerful processors. We still need them, but we don't need then exclusively. In the past we pushed for faster processors, faster memory, and faster storage devices. Now we can re-balance our efforts and bring networks into the mix.

A second observation is that the cloud leverages not simply the network but the local network. (Yes, cloud apps live in the cloud and are accessed in a browser from anywhere, but the cloud-ish things occur on a local network.) It is the local network that has become "good enough"; the internet needs greater speeds and bandwidth.

Just as individuals and corporations adopted PCs and local networks, I predict that they will adopt cloud computing. The technology may not be ready for prime time, and we may see the emergence of a "killer app", but eventually the adoption will occur. If anything, it will be an expansion of the virtual desktop -- low-power PCs accessing virtual PCs on servers. With cheap (low-power) PCs in front of users and banks of cheap servers, we will be using cheap hardware at all levels of the infrastructure.

So small will be big, again.