My initial reaction to the iPad was that it was just a larger iPod. After some reflection, I think I may have been wrong. And not because Apple iPads are selling briskly, but because I have had time to think of the possibilities offered by the iPad.
The iPad, and devices like it, make available new uses of computing power. Just as PCs (and "microcomputers", before the release of the IBM PC) made available new uses of computing power, so do the iPads.
When the early microcomputers arrived (the Apple II, the Radio Shack TRS-80, et al.) they evoked one of three responses from people. From IT professionals ("DP professionals" in those days), the reaction was "it's a toy and not really a computer". From those who would later become computer geeks, the response was "this is too cool". And from the general public, the (wise) response was "what does it do?".
Proto-geeks took to PCs immediately. IT professionals took to them only after business folks demanded support. Of course, business folks didn't really know what to do with them until VisiCalc and Lotus 1-2-3 arrived. So it was the spreadsheet that made the compelling case for business users, and indirectly to IT professionals. The general public kept a skeptical (and wise) view.
Smartphones, PDAs, and now the iPad and suchlike (shall we call them "slate PCs"?) need no compelling application. Or, perhaps more accurately, have no single compelling application. Individuals see the value in smartphones and PDAs. Businesses see the utility of cell phones and Blackberry phones, but see nothing beyond a mobile phone and mobile e-mail client.
I posit that businesses may see the value in slate PCs. I say "may" because the case is not compelling -- yet.
Businesses in the 1970s and 1980s understood computers. Their understanding was simple: a computer is a big, expensive box that does magical things with data. It is attended by high priests and its uses are specific.
The arrival of the PC disrupted that convenient arrangement. PCs were not large boxes, nor did they reside in special rooms, nor did they require high priests. They were inexpensive, they could be in anyone's office, and the user could use them with a modicum of training.
Corporations, working with Microsoft, took the better part of a decade to fully integrate PCs into their IT infrastructure. When they were done, PCs became cheap boxes that were attached to a large, expensive network that was managed by the high priests of IT support. Access to PCs is now governed by the Microsoft Active Directory server, updates are pushed by Microsoft or a local server, and applications must conform to corporate policies. The result is that the centrally-located and centrally-administered mainframe has become a centrally-administrated network with limited power outside of server rooms (and committee meetings).
The iPad and slate PCs bring another round of disruption. They are small enough to carry conveniently. They are networked but not through the corporate network. They are powerful enough to perform meaningful work. And they are easy to use, much easier than PCs ever were. They are as convenient as a smartphone and large enough to display documents and graphics at a reasonable size.
What's needed for slate PCs in the workplace is the compelling application. I'm not sure what it will be, but my guess is that it will be a collaborative application. And by "collaborative", I don't mean the lame attempts of Microsoft Outlook or Sharepoint.
Here's an example of a multi-user application, one that is not perhaps collaborative but usable by a group of people: Sheet music.
Picture an orchestra. In our current world, the musicians place sheet music before them and perform. In the future, they can place a slate PC in front of them and have it display the music for them. One immediate advantage: pages turn at the correct time, and musicians do not have to lean forward to turn the page.
No impressive, you say? Perhaps not. Let's go a little further.
Network the slate PCs together. With the network, they can communicate. (This lets them turn pages on cue.) Not only can they turn pages, they can highlight the current musical notes at the right time, by having the note change color or becoming bold. The musician will always have the correct place, and won't "get lost".
Not for the professionals, you say? Probably not. I don't see the professional players changing anytime soon. Classical music has enough stodge to prevent such an adoption.
But high school orchestras could use it.
Smart phones are too small for such an application. Slate PCs offer a screen of acceptable size.
I don't know how long it will take corporate America to integrate slate PCs. They've done a poor job of integrating smartphones (except for the Blackberry) so I expect that slate PCs will have a fair wait. In that time, we'll see the innovative applications that make a technology great.
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