Open Source Microsoft

A lot has been written about Microsoft's latest moves to open source.

I don't expect Microsoft to turn itself into Google. Or Apache. Or even Sun or Novell. I expect Microsoft to remain Microsoft. I expect them to remain a for-profit business. I expect them to keep some amount of software as closed source.

Here's what happens if Microsoft opens its source code in a significant manner:

First, the notion of open source software becomes legitimate. People who avoided open source software because it was "not what Microsoft does" will have no reason to avoid it. They may start to laud the principles of open source. Many companies, large and small, will look at the non-Microsoft offerings and consider them. (I expect a number of shops to remain dedicated to Microsoft solutions, open or closed.)

Second, the open source community takes a hit. Not the entire community, but a major portion of it. The blow is psychological, not technical. The openness of open source defines the "open source community" and separates it from the large commercial shops like Microsoft. If Microsoft adopts open source (even in part), then the traditional open source community (many of whom are Microsoft-bashers) suffer an identity crisis.

Third, the open source folks who depended on the notion of "we're not Microsoft" will substitute some other mechnism for differentiating themselves from Microsoft. Look for renewed language wars (tricky with Microsoft funding things like IronPython and IronRuby) and possibly the notion of "pure" open source. The latter may catch companies that use a dual approach to software, such as Novell and MySQL.

Microsoft will stay focussed on its goals. The open source community may become splintered, with some folks searching for ways to bash Microsoft, some folks trying to blend Microsoft into their current solutions, and others remaining on their current path.

Could it be that Microsoft has found a way to neutralize the threat of open source software?